Best Bet

1. San Diego Chargers (+2.5) vs. Det – See money line bet.

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2.  Carolina Panthers (-7.5) vs. TB – The Bucs have regressed horribly in 2011.

They’re in the midst of an eight-game losing streak and the heat is on their head coach, Raheem Morris. The Panthers on the other hand are on the upswing and Cam Newton will lead them to an easy victory here.

3.  Seattle Seahawks (+2) vs. SF – The point spread is less than a FG because the Niners are on the road and on a short week. But the Seahawks are also much better now than they were earlier in the year, especially on defense.

Expect a close, low scoring game, which Seattle may very well pull out in the end.

4. Miami Dolphins (+10) vs. NE – There’s always the possibility of the Patriots suffering a minor letdown after last week’s big win over Tim Tebow and Co. The Fins have also been competitive in nearly every game since the midpoint of the season.

The Rest

Denver Broncos (-3) vs. Buf – The Broncos will move one step closer to wrapping up the AFC West after Sunday’s win.

Arizona Cardinals (+4) vs. Cin – The game has plenty of importance to the Bengals playoff hopes, but the Cards are streaking at the right time. Expect them to keep the final score to within three points.

Kansas City Chiefs (-2) vs. Oak – The Raiders looked poised for an AFC West crown just a few weeks ago but those dreams have disappeared after three straight losses. It’ll be four after Saturday.

Money Line Bet

San Diego Chargers (+120) vs. Det – The Chargers are on fire since the Jacksonville game. The resurgence of Philip Rivers can primarily be attributed to the raised level of play from the offensive line, and San Diego has moved to 7-7 on the season.

The Lions on the other hand still feature an explosive offense but their defense has become ordinary.

Look for the Bolts to win their 4th in a row in a high scoring game on Saturday.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers - The New York Jets are in a downward spiral after losing their past two games to the Patriots and Dolphins. In those two games they’ve scored a total of 9 points. It won’t get any easier in Pittsburgh and we expect the Steelers to send the reeling Jets to their 3rd straight loss.

2. Oakland Raiders - The Broncos just got annihilated by the Cardinals 43-13 and Kyle Orton and the offense looked horrendous. Denver is a mess and will get rolled by the Raiders in Oakland.

3. San Diego Chargers - It’s a must-win for the Chargers in their home field. Regardless of San Diego‘s injuries, the Niners don’t travel particularly well and Mike Singletary is a huge liability for the team from the Bay Area. Expect San Diego to romp easily on Thursday Night.

Teams that are no sure thing in your suicide pool.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - While they should win, Tampa’s roster has been decimated by injury in recent weeks. Which makes this game closer than it would normally be.

Chicago Bears - The Vikings looked horrible on Monday, but if Favre returns, he could boost the team’s morale and knock off division rival Chicago. The location of this game could also factor into the outcome.

Indianapolis Colts - Indy should win, but Jacksonville ALWAYS plays them close, which makes the point spread too high. The Jags are peaking at the right time….

But thanks to a move this week, which on surface seems totally unrelated, we now see Tomlinson returning to fantasy star status in the 2nd half of the season. This week, the Chargers finally fired its Defensive Coordinator, Ted Cottrell. Maybe someone in the Chargers’ front office has been reading this blog because we’ve been calling for this move since prior to the season.

You might be asking yourself how a move on the other side of the ball will affect Tomlinson’s fantasy stat line, and here’s the reason why. The man to replace the embattled Cottrell, former Bears’ Defensive Coordinator Ron Rivera, will bring an aggressive game plan to the Chargers’ D which will force more stops and get the ball back into the hands of the offense. I can’t tell you how important this is for a running back.

For the majority of the first half of the season, the Chargers have surrendered long drives and a lot of points. Last week vs. New Orleans, they gave up 37. When you’re constantly down, it puts added pressure on the offense to keep pace with the other team. This is great for your fantasy QB and deadly for your fantasy RB.

If you’ll remember, Tomlinson was at his best in 2006 (2,323 total yards, 31 TDs) because the Chargers (14-2) were playing with the lead in nearly every game and because the defense was constantly getting turnovers and 3-and-outs.

Fast forward two years and it’s a whole different story. Although sitting at 3-5 is plenty discouraging, the Chargers have the easiest 2nd half schedule with four games still remaining in the division, and trust me, none of those teams are world beaters on defense and in particular against the run.

On the other side of the ball, look for the defense to begin turning up the heat while making stops and keeping the score close. This scenario will a) give Tomlinson the ball more times per game and b) not have San Diego playing in catch up mode.

And in other good news, his toe injury appears to have finally healed (105 rushing yards and 65 receiving last week) and these two factors – the defensive coordinator switch and a healthy toe – are why RB LaDainian Tomlinson will once again regain his All-Pro form and be a 2nd half fantasy sensation.

1st off, 80% of the league is average. This is what parity has done to the game. 2nd, as amazing as this sounds, 75% of head coaches out there are actually on equal footing with Norv Turner, which is not a strong endorsement for league coaching. 3rd, the Bolts have one of the easiest remaining schedules left of any team. In division play alone, they still have two games against Kansas City and one vs Oakland and Denver, both in San Diego, so right there are four you can chalk up in the ‘W’ column.

For San Diego to get back on track however, they need to get the running game corrected. No, Tomlinson has not aged to the point where he’s no longer an effective runner; Turner’s scheme isn’t getting the job done. Without being able to run, San Diego will continue to be put into poor 3rd down passing situations against good teams and this will keep the offense underachieving.

Defensively, they need to fire their coordinator, Ted Cottrell. In fact, what they’re waiting for is anyone’s guess. This man is afraid to bring pressure at opposing quarterbacks and this makes the secondary vulnerable against the pass. Quarterbacks who have all day to throw = high completion %-ages, which = sustained drives that result in a lot of scores. For the Bolts to get back to being one of the best defenses in football, they need to bring pressure; otherwise, all the money they’ve spent on that side of the ball will go to waste.

So as you watch the rest of the season play out, look for two things: whether Tomlinson is able to run the ball consistently (4 yards/carry) and if the defense gets to the QB – either by way of quarterback hurries or sacks. If this happens, instead of going down as one of the biggest busts of 2008, they’ll have a good shot at becoming one of the major contenders in January. Only time will tell.

For the past few weeks, I’ve added my two cents about the Chargers’ woes, but after yesterday’s embarrassing loss to the Miami Dolphins, I feel it’s time to explain the situation a little clearer.

If you’re all searching through the game recap and stat line for the reasons why San Diego lost yesterday, you can stop. There’s only one reason why this talented team sits at 2-3: coaching. That’s it. GM AJ Smith, and all his wonderful ability to evaluate talent and personnel, loses that touch when it comes to dealing with and hiring head coaches. Two years ago, his long accounted rift with then coach Marty Schottenheimer came to an end when Smith decided to send Marty to the unemployment line after he allowed both of his coordinators to leave and tried to hire his younger brother to take over the offense. Both men wanted control and unfortunately for Marty, a lifetime of ineptness in the post season shifted the power to Smith’s favor and team President Dean Spanos opted to let his coach go. This coming off a 14-2 season mind you.

So it was time to find a coach, or, in AJ Smith’s world, a puppet, to head the most talented team in the league. He struck gold in Norv Turner. This move was scrutinized for months, but team officials, who tried desperately to hide Norv Turner’s career record to that point, which was 58-82, told everyone that Turner had never had the opportunity to coach such talented players and that’s why his record was so poor; they basically took accountability for Norv’s record and threw it squarely on his former players’ shoulders.

As expected, to most knowledgeable people of the sport, the 2007 season got off to a rocky start. They were 1-3 after the first quarter of the season, 5-5 after 10, and only at .500 because Adam Viniateri missed a GW chip shot to give the Bolts a 26-24 win over Indy, and then proceeded to rattle off 6 more victories, with the Texans and Lions being victims along the way. Thanks to the softness of the AFC West, SD rolled to its 2nd consecutive AFC West crown (3rd in 4 years) and hosted a 1st round game in the playoffs.

In came the Titans, with their dominant defense and anemic offense, led by Vince Young. Had TN had any sort of an offense, they’d have stolen this game, but after leading 6-0 at the half way point, they failed to score again and SD managed to put the ball in the end zone late to pull away and win 17-6. Had they lost here, they’d have been calling for both GM and coach’s head. Next stop: Indy. The Chargers won this game unexpectedly because Tomlinson came out early with a knee injury and then during the crucial 4th quarter, Rivers was out with a knee injury as well, leaving an ominous backfield of Billy Volek and Michael Turner/Darren Sproles. The Chargers, for whatever reason, own Indy, have won every match up since 2005, and that continued on this day. The final score was 28-24. The following week, in the AFC Championship Game, the Patriots beat them again 21-12 to advance to the Super Bowl.

After this, everyone suddenly changed his perspective about Turner and the ship appeared to be right. How long ago this seems and how wrong they were. After 5 games into this 2008 season, the same questions are being asked about this team as they were at this time last year; why can’t they get it going? I’ve heard people who are quick to blame the loss of Steroidman (Merriman) as the reason for the defenses woes. Wrong. Scheming can help deal with that; the Giants haven’t lost a beat and they’re playing without Strahan (future HOF’er retired) and Osi (Pro Bowler on IR) from last year. The offense can’t get it going and they’re stacked with pro bowlers at nearly every position. Tomlinson, who was everybody’s MVP after his 31 TDs in 2006, didn’t all of a sudden forget how to run, and don’t attribute too much to the toe injury; he had a lot of troubles last year when completely healthy. The fact is that Turner is a horrific game planner; his O-line isn’t creating holes for Tomlinson and the running game to run through and the team looks lethargic in the 1st of half of games. When other teams come in that are nearly comparable in talent, if the coach is good, he’ll usually have a decided advantage over San Diego.

That may happen this week, in the ” what was supposed to be the much anticipated rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game.” Had Brady remained healthy, I don’t think there would’ve been that much hoopla surrounding this game considering San Diego is coming in with a sub .500 record. Regardless, I see SD winning this one at home to even their record to 3-3, but nothing is given in this league. If they can get to .500, they’re still in it; Denver’s not running away with anything, but if you look back throughout the history of the game, you’ll find plenty of very good/great coaches who won it all when they had great players, and plenty of very good/great coaches who won when they had only good players, but you’ll be hard pressed to find any teams full of great players who won it with poor coaching, which is what San Diego is trying to do.

The lesson to Smith is that the coach is equally, if not more important than the men lining up every Sunday, and as long as Turner is the man steering the ship, the glacier is never too far out of sight.