Top Pick

1. Green Bay Packers vs. Jax – Regardless of how banged up Green Bay is, and they’re dinged across the board defensively, the Jags, who could ill afford any losses, enter this game without their only marketable player, RB Maurice Jones-Drew.

Starting QB Blaine Gabbert is also out meaning Chad Henne will get the call. Not good news when a team is trying to outscore one of the hottest offenses – and best teams –  in the NFL on their home field.

Green Bay will win this going away.

Next

2. Denver Broncos vs. NO – The Saints held on to beat the Bucs at the end of the game a week ago, but their problems on defense are real and numerous.

QB Peyton Manning and Co. are coming off the bye and will torch New Orleans by putting 30-40 points on the scoreboard. Also expect the Broncos D to force a few turnovers as Denver wins on Sunday Night and covers the point spread.

3. San Francisco 49ers vs. Arz – The Cardinals did a good job to start the season, but a team can only absorb so many injuries and remain competitive.

After losing their top two RBs, starting QB, and a few offensive lineman, it’s become too much and the offense’s inability to sustain drives is why the talented defense is wearing down late in games.

The 49ers powerful running game will wear the Cardinals down in the 2nd half and their defense will smother Arizona’s offense all night long.

It features the two top seeds from both conferences who each started out the season 13-0.

The Colts are here after two commanding post season victories over the Ravens and Jets. The impressive part about the AFC Championship Game is that after going down 17-6, Manning rallied his troops to outscore New York 24-0 over the final 32 minutes of the game.

The Saints on the other hand are fortunate to be in this position. After an overwhelming 45-14 victory over the Arizona Cardinals in the Divisional Round, it took five turnovers, one being an infamous interception by Brett Favre at the end of regulation, before the Saints kicked the GW FG in OT to advance to the Super Bowl.

Since then, the only major news leading up to the game – from either team – is the status of DE Dwight Freeney. Mixed reports are coming out of the Colts camp but it appears unlikely that he’ll be able to play in this game due to a torn ligament in his ankle… and if he can, he’ll be far below 100%.

Onto our analysis of the Super Bowl:

When the Colts have the ball, they’ll use the same formula they’ve used all season and keep the game in Manning’s hands throughout.  While the Saints possess above average CB play, their defensive front’s ability to pressure the QB is usually dependent upon playing with a lead, something we don’t expect here, so look for Manning to have time to deliver the ball.

Reggie Wayne won’t have much trouble making his presence felt because the Siants don’t possess a CB of Darrelle Revis’s caliber. In fact, we like all of the skill players, from WRs Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, to TE Dallas Clark, to have a great deal of success against this secondary.

DC Gregg Williams will most likely employ a defense designed to keep everything in front of it. He did this against the Vikings. But Peyton Manning will recognize this early and methodically pick apart the secondary en route to long drives which end in TDs.

And when Williams decides to bring the blitz, Manning is one of the – if not the – best in the league at recognizing it and will make New Orleans pay.

Once the passing game gets going, expect RBs Joseph Addai and Donald Brown to see their share of touches. It’ll be primarily on stretch runs and draws but it’ll do just enough to keep New Orleans off balance so Peyton can execute play action passes.

When the Saints have the ball, Brees will be dealing. Like Manning, he’s extremely efficient and accurate when given time to pass. And if Freeney isn’t able to go, the Saints will then shift help over to DE Robert Mathis’s side of the field and Brees will have a nice pocket to locate the open receiver.

Look for WR Marques Colston to play a big role, as well as Devery Henderson or Robert Meachem, and any one of them could get behind the Colts secondary like Braylon Edwards did in the AFC Championship Game. The Saints will be able to use the play action effectively because RB Pierre Thomas should find a lot of success running against the Colts smaller D.

For the intermediate passing game, both TEs – Jeremy Shockey and Dave Thomas – will be used heavily throughout.

Out of the backfield, look for Pierre Thomas to be the primary ball handler.

As to Reggie Bush, he’ll have success both as a running back and receiver but we like him to make his presence felt more as a receiver in this one.

One thing to remember about this game is both teams are dome teams, and both rely heavily on their team speed. The Super Bowl is set to be played on the grass, so expect to see a different speed of the game than we’re used to seeing from them.

When Super Bowl XLIV is in the books, provided DE Dwight Freeney doesn’t play, look for the Saints, a 6 point underdog, to pull out the upset 31-28. (If Freeney can play and is effective, then we’ll side with the Colts by a TD, but all reports suggest he won’t be).

This will be a very even game offensively and defense is where it will be won.

Freeney’s loss will tip the scales in the Saints favor.

What was initially described as a minor ankle injury is really a torn ligament, and the pass rushing specialist’s availability, or if he plays, effectiveness, is in doubt.

How does this affect your betting strategy?

If Freeney is unable to go or limited, the Colts will have very few answers to stopping the Saints passing attack.

It used to be that when S Bob Sanders went down, the run defense disappeared. Well, Jim Caldwell and Co. have shored up that part of the defense and the Colts were able to absorb the star studded, but often injured Safety’s loss and play respectable run defense.

But losing Freeney would be particularly big because the Saints are a pass happy team. The Colts would be unable to generate a consistent pass rush with their front four and Drew Brees is as good as anyone when he has time to deliver the ball.

He’ll carve up the Colts secondary and trade score for score with Peyton Manning.

In fact, the loss of No. 93 would actually tip the scales in the Saints favor.

And the reason is we expect Gregg Williams defense to generate more of a pass rush on Peyton than Caldwell’s will get on Brees.

We’ll have our full analysis later in the week, but at this point, with the new news on Freeney, we’re leaning towards taking the Saints (+6), the Saints on the money line (+170), and the over (56.5).

While we like them at this number with their roster as is, word came out yesterday that their best defensive player, DE Dwight Freeney, had an ankle injury much worse than the team was letting on.

When the injury occurred late in the AFC Championship Game it didn’t look good at all.

He came down awkwardly on his ankle and immediately headed towards the sideline.

His day was done at that point thanks to the Colts commanding lead.

But if he’s forced to either miss the Super Bowl or is unable to be his normal self due to the injury, this impacts the game – and betting strategy – tremendously.

If either of the above scenarios are realized, the Saints will then shift help over to Robert Mathis’s side, who by the way is helped greatly by the attention paid towards Freeney, and the Colts pass rush will be effectively neutralized.

They’d then have to resort to more blitzes in an attempt to pressure Drew Brees and throw off his rhythm.

This scenario wouldn’t be favorable for Indianapolis. When Brees has time to throw, he’s deadly. He’ll distribute the ball around the field and pick apart the Colts secondary.

The Saints would also be able to go toe to toe with the Colts offense and keep things interesting until the end.

So keep an eye on his injury status prior to placing your bets.

As said in an earlier article, his is the one injury, outside of Peyton Manning, which could derail Indianapolis’s chances of winning the Super Bowl.

If he can go and play at a high level, we still like the Colts -6; if he can’t, take the Saints (+6) and the (+180) money line.

This seems about right and at this point, looks tasty if you’re planning on placing money on Indy. The only thing to keep an eye on would be the injury to DE Dwight Freeney. According to various reports, Indianapolis is saying that he’ll be fine for the game.

And historically, he’s been a fast healer, so the extra week off should help.

But this is one injury which would be more damaging to the Colts – and the point spread – than any other besides Peyton Manning.

We’ll provide a more in-depth analysis closer to kick off, but one thing which we all know is the Saints are a vastly different team away from the Superdome than in it.

At home, they’re lightning quick, their routes are precise and they feed off the hometown crowd. And once they’ve been able to jump out to a lead, they’ve been able to bury teams.

But on the road, and in particular, on the grass, it’s a different story.  It took big rallies to pull off last minute wins against the lowly Redskins and Dolphins.

Indy on the hand is well versed playing anywhere. The grass doesn’t seem to affect their team speed and Peyton is Peyton whether at home or on the road.

And Miami also happens to be the home of their last Super Bowl Championship.

1. New York Jets (+7.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts

Sometimes it’s too difficult to tempt fate. This is one of those times. While we actually think the Colts will win a close one, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where they’ll win by more than 8. In fact, with the way the Jets are playing, both on defense as well as running the ball, we think it’ll be decided by less than four points.

And the reason for that is the Jets possess the most aggressive defense in the Playoffs and Peyton Manning struggles when he has pressure in his face. He gets happy feet and his throws are erratic.

New York will keep everything in front of them and bring waves after No. 18 to disrupt his timing.

Offensively, the Jets will continue to pound the ball in an attempt to shorten the game and keep Manning and Co. cold on the sidelines.

The 7.5 point spread is too much. Take the Jets plus the points and if you believe in fate, and that the stars have aligned to have the team the Colts could’ve eliminated (in Week 16) come back to knock them out of the Playoffs, bet the +250 money line too.

Next In Line

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) vs. New Orleans Saints

The only reason Brett Favre came back was to have a chance at another ring. He’s 60 minutes away from realizing that goal.

While the Saints might possess a bit more potency on offense than the Vikings do, Minnesota is superior on defense.

And we think the defense will be the difference. The Saints are nearly unbeatable when they go up and down the field and score at will. Not only does it demoralize the opposing defense, it puts intense pressure on the offense to match them score for score. But we don’t see this happening against Leslie Frazier’s defense.

Instead, expect the Vikings to be able to move the ball on both the ground and through the air against the Saints and for its defense, once it has a lead, to pin their ears back and come after Brees.

The final score will be close, but take the 3.5 points as well as the money line (+150).

The story book ending Favre’s been looking for is very close to being realized.

The Vikings, after stumbling down the stretch and backing in to the No.2 seed, dismantled the red hot Cowboys 34-3 in the Divisional Round.

The Saints, after losing their final three games of the regular season, came out roaring in the Divisional Round and demolished the Cardinals 45-14.

Onto this matchup:

When the Vikings have the ball, they’ll look to keep things balanced on offense. The Saints are especially effective when they can turn opposing offenses one dimensional, so look for Minnesota to mix RB Adrian Peterson in early and often.

New Orleans is vulnerable on the ground and we see No. 28 picking up big chunks of yards all day.

In order to limit Peterson’s effectiveness, New Orleans will be forced to bring a Safety into the box.

At that point, expect Favre to take to the air.

His primary targets will once again be WR Sindey Rice and Percy Harvin, both of whom should have strong games against the Saints secondary.

Harvin will be targeted primarily on short crossing routes and screens while Rice, whose developed into a top threat in 2009, will give the Saints smaller DBs fits all afternoon.

Coming off a three TD game vs. Dallas, look for at least one in this contest.

In the red zone, keep an eye on TE Visanthe Shiancoe. No. 4 loves to look his way near the goal line and the duo will hook up for a short score here.

When the Saints have the ball, Drew Brees will come out firing. When this team is hitting on all cylinders, as they were in their win over Arizona, he’s spreading the ball around to multiple receivers and picking up yards in bunches.

He’ll need to do so this week.

Facing the Vikings front four, look for New Orleans to incorporate a quick passing game to neutralize Frazier’s aggressive blitzing attack and keep Jared Allen and Co. off of Brees.

Using that attack, Brees should have a lot of success locating Colston, Henderson, Shockey and Bush on slants and quick outs. And once he gets into a rhythm, expect a few shots deep.

When they turn to the run, it’ll only be to eat up clock and wear down the Vikings D late in the game (provided they have a lead). The Vikings run defense is strong and New Orleans will find picking up yards on the ground hard to come by.

On top of that, RB Pierre Thomas, their best back, has been injured for much of the year and comes into this game with a leg injury.

While Reggie Bush enjoyed a breakout game on the ground vs. the Cards, it won’t happen this week. Instead, he’ll find most of his success as a receiver.

As the clock strikes 0:00, look for the Vikings, currently 3.5 point underdogs, to go into New Orleans and win 31-27. The one scenario which would doom the Vikings is to get into a situation where everyone knows Favre has to pass, i.e. get down by 10 points or more.

In those situations, he’s been known to make poor decisions and the Saints are one of the most opportunistic defenses in the league.

But we don’t see that happening.

We see a close game into the 4th quarter until the Vikings ground game and defense prove too much.

In that game , Kurt Warner, who’s supposedly contemplating retirement at the end of the season, completed 29 of 33 passes for 379 yards and 5 TDs. The defense on the other hand took quite a licking but made enough plays – and the big play to finish the game – to advance to round two.

The Saints are coming off a well deserved bye week after winning the NFC with a 13-3 record. However, they stumbled to the finish gate of the regular season with three straight losses and there’s some cause for concern.

How we see this breaking down:

When the Cardinals are on offense, they’ll follow a similar blueprint to their game plan against the Packers. They’ll spread the Saints defense out and Warner will execute a high percentage passing game against the Saints secondary.

The Saints D, which really struggled down the stretch, lost another key player on the defensive line, DE Charles Grant, and this loss will make getting pressure on Warner that much harder.

Arizona should have WR Anquan Boldin, in addition to Larry Fitgerald and Steve Breaston, back in the lineup, and that will give Warner even more weapons to dissect the Saints D.

Once the passing game is working and Warner and Co. are in a rhythm, expect Beanie Wells to make his presence felt. He had another strong game against the Packers with 91 yards on 14 carries. He’s running tough and will pick up good yardage on the ground.

When the Saints are on offense, they’ll also attack through the air. When Drew Brees has been on at home this year, there’s been no one better in the game.  The pressure he places on opposing offenses by marching up and down the field has been key to the Saints winning so many games.

He’ll likely find a great deal of success this week against a Cardinals secondary which while talented, is vulnerable to the passing game. Cromartie-Rodgers should be effective against Colston, but the other receivers, Henderson, Meachem, etc., should all be able to pick up significant yards against the rest of the secondary.

One of the issues towards the end of the season was the Saints inability to rush the ball. While Pierre Thomas should be back healthy, he’s been largely ineffective this year and the running game as a whole has been inconsistent.

It should find some success this week, because we don’t see Arizona cheating S Adrian Wilson close to the line, but the Cardinal Linebackers possess enough speed to keep Thomas, Bell or Bush from getting untracked.

It’s difficult to ignore the sluggish way that the Saints finished the season. Many people can say they wrote off the last few games after suffering their first defeat to the Cowboys, but we don’t see it that way.

They gave it their all in their loss to the Bucs and were beaten by the more physical team.  The close games (albeit mostly wins) late in the season also suggest the rest of the league adjusted to them.

The Cardinals are battle tested and have been here before and became a force to be reckoned with on the road this year.

And they’ll be a force again in the divisional round.

The 7-point spread, which the Saints are currently at, is too high.

Not only will the Cardinals cover, they’ll win outright.

Expect a 37-31 victory for Kurt Warner and Co. and a return trip to the NFC Championship Game.

Here’s our Week 17 picks.

Best Bet

1. New York Jets (-10) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have nothing to play for and have added incentive to tank this game because it will mean Pittsburgh is kept out of the post season. That being said, their offense has been in a funk the past few weeks and they’ll want to work out some issues prior to Wild Card Weekend.

Expect the Bengals starters to play for about a half, and keep it close, and then for New York to pull away late en route to a two TD win.

Next In Line

2. Baltimore Ravens (-10) vs. Oakland Raiders

The Raiders have pulled off some big upsets by the bay this season (Bengals, Eagles, etc.) but those weren’t games where everything was on the line for the other team. This is. The Ravens must win on Sunday to advance to the post season.

Look for a spirited effort from Ray Lewis and Co. and for the offense, led by Ray Rice, to dominate the Raiders in the Black Hole.

3. Tennessee Titans (-4) vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks have mailed in the season and are only playing for a higher draft selection on Sunday. The Titans on the other hand are focused on getting Chris Johnson to 2,000 yards – and the single season total yards mark – and will beat up a demoralized Seahawks squad in Week 17.

4. Philadelphia Eagles (+3) vs. Dallas Cowboys

Next In Line

Kansas City Chiefs (+13) vs. Denver Broncos

The Broncos have had an excellent season considering their expectations coming into it, but the last time they were favored by this much, the Raiders pulled off the shocking 20-19 upset two weeks ago.

They’re on the outside looking in (at the post season) and the Chiefs, with the return of WR Dwayne Bowe, are playing more competitively on offense. KC will lose, but not by 13.

Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers are riding high on a two game winning streak after knocking off the Seahawks and Saints in consecutive weeks. Unfortunately they won’t finish the season on a three game streak. The Falcons, re-energized with the return of Matt Ryan, will control this game offensively, and on defense, they’ll force Josh Freeman into a few turnovers.

Houston Texans (-7.5) vs. New England Patriots

This will be typical Patriots. Already having a home game in the Playoffs secured, the starters (Brady, Moss, Welker, etc) will play a quarter – maybe a half – before Belichick puts in the backups. The Texans still have an outside chance at a Wild Card and will romp at home on Sunday.

Money Line

Philadelphia Eagles (+140) vs. Dallas Cowboys

A lot is at stake when these two teams meet in Week 17. The Cowboys with a win will win the NFC East outright. The Eagles, thanks to the collapse of the Vikings, currently are the No. 2 seed in the NFC and with a win will lock down that first round bye in addition to the NFC East.

Offensively, look for Reid to try and re-establish the Eagles running game. The Eagles have gotten away from that in recent weeks but with the return of Westbrook, to go along with McCoy and Weaver, now’s a good time to begin balancing out the team’s play-calling.

An effective running game will also keep DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer off McNabb and open up the passing game to DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek.

Defensively, look for the Eagles to blitz Dallas to keep the offense under control. When Romo has time, he can deliver the ball to Austin and Witten and is extremely effective. When he’s pressured, he makes mistakes. Dallas also tends to get away from the running game when Romo is off so expect the Eagles to bring as much pressure as possible.

In their last game, playing a straight up defense hurt Philly as Romo was able to locate Miles Austin on a  GW 49 yard TD pass late in the game. They won’t make the same mistake again.

Andy Reid has strong record in Dallas and he’ll continue that success with a win on Sunday as the Eagles will wrap up a bye in the Playoffs.

1. San Francisco 49ers (-12.5) vs. Detroit Lions

The Lions will starting Drew Stanton at QB on Sunday and that’s not good for Detroit. A poor road team as is, they’re heading into San Francisco where the Niners blew out the Cardinals two weeks ago and forced seven turnovers in the process.

Expect a dominating defensive effort in Week 16 and a convincing, two TD win for the Niners.

Next In Line

2.  Green Bay Packers (-14) vs. Seattle Seahawks

The only thing to be concerned about here is whether last week’s 37-36 loss in Pittsburgh took the wind out of their sails. If they are able to put that loss behind them, this will be a rout. The Seahawks have mailed in the season after being annihilated by Houston and Tampa (at home) in consecutive weeks and are not going to be happy about playing in the frigid Lambeau Field.

Green Bay, still fighting for a Wild Card Berth, will win convincingly on Sunday and cover the two TD point spread the sportsbook currently has them at.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+14) vs. New Orleans Saints

While the Saints want to have a strong performance after suffering their 1st loss of the season, they’ve already wrapped up the NFC’s top seed and are not about to expose their key players to injury in the 2nd half of this game. Look for Tampa, coming off a solid road performance in Seattle, to keep this one within reach for 60 minutes.

4. Washington Redskins (+6.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys

See Money Line Analysis

Others We Like

Cleveland Browns (-3) vs. Oakland Raiders

The 38 point over/under is probably a safe bet too. The Raiders, opting to go with Charlie Frye at QB, are running into a Browns team which is playing surprisingly well right now. They’ve beaten the Steelers and Chiefs as underdogs in back to back weeks and will win their 3rd straight game – and cover the point spread – on Sunday.

Denver Broncos (+7) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles will win this game, but it will not be by a TD. The Broncos, probably looking ahead to this game in their loss last week to Oakland, were playing very well (up to that point) and will get back on track this week.

The Eagles, excellent offensively, have holes in their defense and Denver, behind Kyle Orton and Brandon Marshall, will keep this close.

Minnesota Vikings (-7) vs. Chicago Bears

The Vikings will probably get back to their roots on Monday and run the ball first, pass second. Favre’s been tremendous this season but it all starts with Adrian Peterson. Some of his best games have come at Chicago’s expense.

Jay Cutler should also be good for a few picks which might lead to a defensive score. Regardless, expect a convincing win for the Vikings on Monday Night.

Money Line

Washington Redskins (+220) vs. Dallas Cowboys

Although the Skins rolled over and died on Monday Night, if there’s one team on the schedule that they always get up for, it’s the Cowboys. The Skins could be 0-14 and still play Dallas competitively.

The Cowboys are coming off an impressive win over the Saints and have quieted their “can’t win in December” talk for the time being.

But this game could be a trap, situated between the Saints game and their crucial game with the Eagles next week.  That one could decide their playoff fate and they haven’t exactly played their best ball in December recently.

Offensively, look for Washington to utilize the short passing game to set up the running game. Campbell will use quick strikes to WR Santana Moss, WR Devin Thomas and TE Fred Davis, who’s really come on of late, and then mix in the run. Dallas is vulnerable against the passing game.

Defensively, look for Haynesworth and the front seven to clog the running lanes and take Barber and Co. out of the game. They’ll want to turn Dallas one dimensional and force Romo to drop back 40 times. If they can do this, it’ll put more pressure on him and could lead to turnovers.

Regardless of Washington’s showing on Monday, this will be close throughout, and with the point spread only at 6.5, we think the sports betting world agrees. So look for Dallas, who’s made a habit of losing winnable games in December, to blow another late season opportunity here.