QBs who will outperform their mid-tier  Week 3 ESPN FFL Rankings:

Blake Bortles (ranked 23) vs. NE – This is a classic letdown game for the Pats after their emotional win over Buffalo. They’ll still win of course, but Bortles will have a productive fantasy day, likely picking up points in garbage time.

Derek Carr (ranked 26) vs. Cle – Carr is a nice fantasy sleeper this week heading into Cleveland.

Ryan Tannehill (ranked 12) vs. Buf – Tannehill has historically thrived against the Bills at home.

Nick Foles (ranked 21) vs. Pit – The Steelers pass D has a number of issues and Foles will exploit some of them at home.

Teddy Bridgewater (ranked 16) vs. SD – San Diego has been victimized through the air and Bridgewater will notch 250 total yards and 2 TDs.

QBs who will underperform their Week 3 rankings

Drew Brees (ranked 10) vs. Car – The Saints offense looks awful. Don’t expect that to change heading into Carolina.

Matt Ryan (ranked 9) vs. Dal – The Cowboys D is a lot better this year than in year’s past. So long as Weeden doesn’t complete collapse this unit will slow Ryan and Co. down.

Must Start

Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck and Matthew Stafford

Tier 1

Ben Roethlisbger vs. Atl – Roethlisberger and Co. will light up the Falcons secondary.

Tom Brady vs. Mia – Brady will top 250 yards with 2-3 TDs.

Aaron Rodgers vs. Buf – This is a trickier matchup. The Bills D is tough – especially at home.

Philip Rivers vs. Den – Expect 22-25 FFL points vs. the Broncos.

Tony Romo vs. Phi – Look for a bounce back from the last performance against the Eagles.

Cam Newton vs. TB – Newton is coming off a monster performance and faces a healthy matchup here.

Drew Brees vs. Chi – Brees threw in a stinker in Week 14. The Bears D is poor.

Jay Cutler vs. No – Only because the Saints D is just as bad.

Tier 2

Eli Manning vs. Was -Manning will hit 13-17 FFL points against the Skins.

Mark Sanchez vs. Dal – The Cowboys D is winded. Sanchez will put up 3 TDs and 225 yards against this unit.

Russell Wilson vs. SF – The 49ers are done. Expect Wilson to put up between 15-17 points.

Bust

Ryan Tannehill vs. NE – The Patriots D will force a few turnovers.

Fantasy Sleeper

Joe Flacco vs. Jax – Jacksonville’s D is ripe to give up a lot of pass yards.

Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Andrew Luck

Tier 1

Tony Romo vs. NYG – He’ll feast on a Giants D that is depleted and struggling in coverage.

Tom Brady vs. Det – The Lions present a big challenge, but this is in NE and Brady is on fire.

Mark Sanchez vs. Ten – This offense suits him well.

Tier 2

Eli Manning vs. Dal – Look for Manning to top 20 FFL points against the Boys.

Colin Kaepernick vs. Was – He’ll be a threat running as well as passing.

Andy Dalton vs. Hou – Dalton will put up 15-18 FFL points.

Jay Cutler vs. TB – He will probably toss a couple of picks but he’s in line for a big afternoon.

Ryan Tannehill vs. Den – Expect 15-18 FFL points against a tough Broncos D.

Philip Rivers vs. Stl. – Rivers enjoys a solid match up here.

Fantasy Sleeper

Josh McCown vs. Chi – Expect McCown to put on a solid showing against his old compatriots.

Bust

Matt Stafford vs. NE – The Pats secondary is its strength.

Top

1. Dallas Cowboys vs. Was – The Cowboys will roll to an easy win on Monday Night. Typically rivalry games are tricky, but not when the Redskins will be without their top defensive player (Brian Orakpo) and starting 3rd stringer QB Colt McCoy. Look for Dallas to easily cover the point spread and win by double digits.

Next

2. Cleveland Browns vs. Oak – Last week was embarrassing. The previously winless Jags upset the Browns in their home park. That won’t happen this week. The Raiders are dreadful and will struggle on the road.

3. Miami Dolphins vs. Jax – The Jags lone win will not become a “winning streak” unfortunately. Miami’s D is stout and will stifle the young Jags O. Look for Ryan Tannehill and the offense to put up 27 in the easy win…

Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers,  Drew Brees and Andrew Luck

Tier 1

Russell Wilson vs. Car – Wilson’s making plays with his legs and arm.

Tom Brady vs. Chi – The Bears pass D is highly suspect.

Matt Stafford vs. Atl – Expect Stafford to get back on track against the lowly Falcons.

Tony Romo vs. Was – Romo will top 250 yards with 3 TDs.

Philip Rivers vs. Den – The Chargers could be playing from behind in this one. Rivers typically plays well against the Broncos.

Tier 2

Nick Foles vs. Arz – Arizona’s D is tough on the Eagles in the desert.

Carson Palmer vs. Phi – Look for 225 yards and 2 TDs.

Jay Cutler vs. NE – Cutler will put up between 15-18 points in Foxboro.

Ryan Tannehill vs. Jax – He’ll follow up an impressive Week 7 with another 2 TDs.

Bust

Matt Ryan vs. Det – The Lions D will overwhelm the Falcons OL and force Ryan into turnovers.

Fantasy Sleeper

Geno Smith vs. Buf – With the addition of WR Percy Harvin, Smith becomes a fantasy sleeper this week.

1. Peyton Manning vs. Was – The Skins D is atrocious and Manning is on pace for a record setting season.

2. Drew Brees vs. Buf – He’s coming off a bye week and this one is at home. Drops down a bit if TE Jimmy Graham can’t go.

3. Cam Newton vs. TB – The Bucs are a complete mess as a franchise now.

4. Tony Romo vs Det – The Lions secondary is about as bad as it gets. Look for Romo to top 300 yards with 2-3 TDs.

Not far behind

Aaron Rodgers vs. Min – While all of his skill players continue to fall around him, he produces. And the Vikings secondary is horrendous.

Tom Brady vs. Mia – The return of TE Rob Gronkowski will move Brady back into the elite fantasy football players beginning this week.

RGIII vs. Den – He’ll likely be throwing and running all while in a big deficit.

Rounding things out

Matt Stafford vs. Dal – While the Cowboys secondary has been playing MUCH better, it’s tough to slow down Megatron and Co. for 4 quarters.

Matt Ryan vs. Arz – The Cardinals D is stingy – especially vs. the pass, but Ryan’s shown the ability to get it done.

Ryan Tannehill vs. NE – If Aqib Talib is out again, the Pats D becomes pretty ordinary.

Russell Wilson vs. Stl. – Wilson will put up 20+ fantasy points vs. the Rams on Monday Night.

Michael Vick vs. NYG – The Giants have actually played better ball defensively. Vick is still a No. 1 vs. this defense, but don’t expect top tier numbers with his hamstring injury.

Eli Manning vs. Phi – A little help in the running game will mean 22-25 fantasy points for Eli on Sunday.

Potential Bust – Beware

Ben Roethlisberger vs. Oak – The Raiders D is surprisingly good at home.

1. Peyton Manning vs. Ind – Look for Manning to put up 4 TDs and 300+ yards in his homecoming.

2. Andrew Luck vs. Den – Luck has played lights out at home. The Broncos D is nothing special.

3. Tony Romo vs. Phi – Romo will have his way with this giving Eagles secondary.

4. Cam Newton vs. Stl. – Newton’s coming off a 4 TD effort.

Not Far Behind

Tom Brady vs. NYJ – Brady will get back to being Brady IF Gronk re-enters the lineup.

Matt Stafford vs. Cin – Stafford will top 3 TDs against an uneven Bengals D when they play on the road.

Aaron Rodgers vs. Cle – Injuries to his receivers drop him down a notch.

Rounding Things Out

Philip Rivers vs. Jax – Rivers will top 300 yards with 2-3 TDs.

Jay Cutler vs. Was – The Skins pass D is overmatched against Cutler’s playmakers.

RGIII vs. Chi – RGIII will be a threat running and passing the ball against a beaten down Bears D.

Nick Foles vs. Dal – The Cowboys D is beat up. Foles is a fantasy sleeper if your regular starter is out or has a bad match-up.

Matt Ryan vs. TB – Make sure WR Roddy White is a go. The receiver corps is thin.

Ryan Tannehill vs. Buf – Tannehill has put up ~20 points at home this season.

Eli Manning vs. Min – Manning is a fantasy sleeper on Monday Night.  The presence of a running game could make this a breakout game for Eli.

Andy Dalton vs. Det – He’s a solid fill in if your regular is out. The Lions D is pretty good, but Dalton will top 275 yards with 2 TDs.

Potential Bust – Beware

Colin Kaepernick vs. Ten – The Titans D is tough vs. the pass and they’re very tough at home.

1. Peyton Manning vs. Phi – The Eagles have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL.

2. Matt Ryan vs. NE – Ryan will eclipse 300 yards and 3 TDs at home on SNF.

3. Drew Brees vs. Mia – The Fins are much improved, but Brees is deadly at home.

4. Matthew Stafford vs. Chi – The Bears have surrendered quite a few yards and TDs through the air.

Not too far behind

Russell Wilson vs. Hou – The Texans D hasn’t been much to write home about this year.

Tom Brady vs. Atl – Having Gronk back would make a world of difference.

Andrew Luck vs. Jax – The Jaguars D will put a smile on anyone’s face. Luck will toss 2-3 TDs on the road.

Rounding things out

Colin Kaepernick vs. Stl – Check that Vernon Davis is back in the lineup first. That will help a great deal.

Tony Romo vs. SD – Look for Romo to attack the Chargers down the field and top 300 yards with 2 TDs.

RGIII vs. Oak – His team is not winning, but he is putting up solid fantasy numbers although the turnovers are adding up.

Sam Bradford vs. SF – The 49ers will be without LB Aldon Smith and potentially MLB Patrick Willis, which makes Bradford a decent start this week.

Ryan Tannehill vs. NO – The 2^nd year QB is improving weekly. NO is a tough place to play but look for Tannehill to put up 20 fantasy football points on MNF.

Terrelle Pryor vs. Was – The Skins are on pace to break the ALL TIME yards allowed record. Pryor is a deep fantasy sleeper if your regular is out or under-performing.

Michael Vick vs. Den – Expect between 20-25 fantasy points as the Eagles play catch up.

Beware – Potential Bust

Eli Manning vs. KC – The Giants O Line looks like it may be the worst in the NFL and the Chiefs D are sure to take advantage of this match-up.

1. Chicago Bears (-3.5) vs. Sea – Although the Seahawks have played the Bears tough in Chicago in recent years, that won’t be the case on Sunday. Chicago’s D will prove too much for QB Russell Wilson who has struggled on the road all season.

Next

2. New England Patriots (-8) vs. Mia – Before the Seahawks game, QB Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins were really struggling. That will start again here.

3. Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) vs. SD – If there’s one thing the Chargers have proven in 2012, it’s that they know how to lose close games. It’ll happen again Sunday against the surging Bengals.

4. St. Louis Rams (+7.5) vs. SF – See money line bet.

Next

Dallas Cowboys (-10) vs. Phi – Dallas has played horribly in 2012 and still are double digit favorites.  And they’ll cover.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) vs. Buf – Two games playing with Chad Henne and The Jags nearly beat the Texans and then did beat the Titans.  They could pull a minor upset here but will at least cover the point spread.

New York Giants (-2.5) vs. Was – The Giants have a chance to put some distance between themselves and everyone else in the NFC East. They know how to win these type of games.

Money Line Bet

St. Louis Rams (+280) vs. SF – They should have beaten the 49ers last time in SF.  Now, the 49ers are likely to come out very focused for this one, but, the Rams have been excellent in NFC West games this year and San Francisco has not put together three consecutive strong performances yet in 2012.

1. Tom Brady vs. Buf – Coming off the bye week, Brady will light up the Bills secondary to the tune of 300+ yards and 3 TDs.

2. Matt Ryan vs. NO – The Saints don’t cover anything. Look for Ryan to top 300 yards with 3 TDs in a shootout.

3. Drew Brees vs. Atl – He always lights up the Falcons.

4. Peyton Manning vs. Car – Expect Manning to continue his hot hand with a 300 yard day and 2-3 TDs.

Next

Matt Stafford vs. Min – Look for Stafford to find the end zone 2-3 times this week.

Andrew Luck vs. Jax – Ride the hot hand? Luck should top 250 yards with a few TDs on Thursday Night.

Eli Manning vs. Cin – The Giants offense has been in a slump but look for Eli to get them back on track this week. Cincinnati has coverage issues.

The Rest

Philip Rivers vs. TB – The Bucs pass D is horrible and Rivers should break out with 2-3 TDs this week.

Cam Newton vs. Den – Newton’s a low level No. 1 and will be a threat on the ground and through the air.

Ben Roethlisberger vs. KC – His yardage might not get too high if they jump to a large lead. Look for 2 passing TDs.

Josh Freeman vs. SD – Go with another with the hot hand. Look for Freeman to test San Diego’s secondary all afternoon and hit 20 fantasy points.

Tony Romo vs. Phi – The Eagles pass defense is a mess.

Joe Flacco vs. Oak – The Raiders secondary is horrible.

Andy Dalton vs. NYG – While he may turn the ball over a few times, he’ll also top 250 yards with 2 TDs vs. the Giants secondary.

Ryan Tannehill vs. Ten – He’s a fantasy sleeper if your No. 1 is out. The Titans pass D is an inviting match-up.

Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. NE – Fitzpatrick will likely be able to pad stats in garbage time this week.

Carson Palmer vs. Bal  - Palmer will likely be in pass mode all day against a defense that surrenders a lot of yards.