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Top Pick

1. Carolina Panthers vs. TB – The Bucs are in a tailspin having lost eight in a row. It becomes nine this week and moves Raheem Morris one step closer to being shown the door.

Expect Cam Newton and Co. to easily cover the point spread (-7.5) and they’re the top suicide pool pick on the board in Week 16.

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2. New Orleans Saints vs. Atl – The Saints are 11-3 and tied with the 49ers as the No. 2 seed in the NFC. They desperately want a bye in the Playoffs and will knock off their division rivals in order to get it.

3. Denver Broncos vs. Buf – Denver received a pretty good licking at the hands of the Patriots, but luckily for them, these are the Bills. And the Bills over the 2nd half of the season have been turnover prone and accustomed to losing.

It’ll happen again this week as Tim Tebow and the Broncos move that much closer to wrapping up the AFC West.

1. New York Jets (+7.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts

Sometimes it’s too difficult to tempt fate. This is one of those times. While we actually think the Colts will win a close one, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where they’ll win by more than 8. In fact, with the way the Jets are playing, both on defense as well as running the ball, we think it’ll be decided by less than four points.

And the reason for that is the Jets possess the most aggressive defense in the Playoffs and Peyton Manning struggles when he has pressure in his face. He gets happy feet and his throws are erratic.

New York will keep everything in front of them and bring waves after No. 18 to disrupt his timing.

Offensively, the Jets will continue to pound the ball in an attempt to shorten the game and keep Manning and Co. cold on the sidelines.

The 7.5 point spread is too much. Take the Jets plus the points and if you believe in fate, and that the stars have aligned to have the team the Colts could’ve eliminated (in Week 16) come back to knock them out of the Playoffs, bet the +250 money line too.

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Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) vs. New Orleans Saints

The only reason Brett Favre came back was to have a chance at another ring. He’s 60 minutes away from realizing that goal.

While the Saints might possess a bit more potency on offense than the Vikings do, Minnesota is superior on defense.

And we think the defense will be the difference. The Saints are nearly unbeatable when they go up and down the field and score at will. Not only does it demoralize the opposing defense, it puts intense pressure on the offense to match them score for score. But we don’t see this happening against Leslie Frazier’s defense.

Instead, expect the Vikings to be able to move the ball on both the ground and through the air against the Saints and for its defense, once it has a lead, to pin their ears back and come after Brees.

The final score will be close, but take the 3.5 points as well as the money line (+150).

The story book ending Favre’s been looking for is very close to being realized.

Last week, facing steep odds (7.5), they traveled cross country and wore down the heavily favored San Diego Chargers late with a physical running game and swarming defense.

The Indianapolis Colts road to this point has been far easier. After winning their initial 14 games, they created controversy by resting their starters and bypassing a chance at perfection in their Week 16 game against these very same Jets.

But they bounced back last week and smothered the Baltimore Ravens 20-3 in the Divisional Round.

The wonderful irony of this match-up is the Jets wouldn’t be in this situation had the Colts not given up in their Week 16 game.

Instead, they now find themselves facing this year’s Cinderella team which happens to feature the best running game and defense left in the Playoffs.

Onto the matchup:

When the Jets are on offense, not much is going to change from last week’s approach against the Chargers. They’re going to run the ball 65-70% of the time and try and keep Sanchez in manageable (3rd down) passing situations.

The Colts possess a much fiercer pass rush than the Chargers and New York doesn’t want to get into a situation where Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis can pin their ears back and come after Sanchez.

So look for rookie RB Shonn Grenne, the new star in town, to see a lot of action, and for Thomas Jones to be primarily used in short yardage situations and near the goal line.

The Jets should have success against the smaller Colts defense and once they do, look for Sanchez to locate Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery and Dustin Keller on quick passes.

In the course of the game, they’ll also take at least two shots down the field and provided they’re having success on the ground, could land one for a long TD.

QB/KR Brad Smith will also get between 3-5 direct snaps and run the Wild Cat. Indianapolis had tremendous issues stopping it vs. the Dolphins in Week 2 and could have similar problems on Sunday.

When the Colts have the ball, their offense, as usual, will run through Peyton Manning.

The Jets feature the league’s No. 8 run defense and the Colts were dead last in that department in 2009.

But the Jets are also No. 1 against the pass, so therein lies the dilemma.

For the Colts to attack this defense, they’re going to need to locate players other than Reggie Wayne. CB Darrelle Revis will be on Wayne’s side of the field and limit his effectiveness.

This means a lot of balls will be going in the direction of Dallas Clark, Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. In order to beat the heavy pressure, expect a lot of slants and crossing routes.

One thing New York did last week was keep everything in front of their secondary. While this prevented the home run ball, it left huge holes open over the middle (of the field) which the Chargers exploited all afternoon.

The Colts will do the same.

And once the passing game gets going, they’ll then mix in Joseph Addai and Donald Brown in order to keep the defense honest.

Look for the draw play to be used heavily. When facing an attacking defense, if the RB can get past the first wave of players, they could find themselves running for a while.

The run will also make the play-action a little more effective, which Peyton is the master at.

We expect at least two ror three shots down the field to Garcon off of it.

When this one is in the record books, look for the Colts to advance to the Super Bowl with a 17-13 win.

While it’s very hard to pick against the Jets with the way they are playing, and this could go either way, the only reason they were able to steal last week’s game is because San Diego missed a few FGs and failed to put New York away early on when they had the chance.

Expecting that to happen two weeks in a row is too tall an order for us.

From that point on it was only a matter of running out the clock; the Pats were demoralized and stood no chance of coming back against the Ravens ferocious defense.

The Colts enter this match-up still feeling the heat from their decision to forgo the opportunity of an undefeated season in Week 16. That decision means that it’s Super Bowl or bust in 2009.

Regardless of what Bill Polian says, and while having the Super Bowl as his No. 1 priority is certainly correct, his nonchalant attitude towards history could come back to haunt him in the end.

Onto the match-up:

When the Ravens are on offense, look for them to pound the rock with Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. They’ve had all sorts of success running behind their talented offensive line, and will need to do so on Saturday.

If Joe Flacco has a repeat performance of last Sunday (4 – 10  for 34 yards and one INT), they’ve got no chance.

So look for Cam Cameron to call running plays until the Colts show they can stop it. If they can’t, Baltimore will shorten the game and keep the high powered Colts offense on the sidelines and cold.

The Ravens will try and keep Flacco in manageable passing situations at all costs, ie 3rd and 4, 2nd and 5, etc.

They don’t want to have him passing out of 3rd and long against a very opportunistic defense.

So look for a short, safe  (passing) attack, with the most potent weapon in the passing game being screens and swing passes to Ray Rice out of the backfield. He’s deadly on those and can take it to the house.

When they look to go down the field, Mason will be the top target and Heap will be the No. 1 focus in the red zone.

When the Colts are on offense, everything runs through Peyton Manning. In order to beat Baltimore’s defense, he’ll need to execute a quick passing game and quicken the tempo of the offense to offset the Ravens’ pressure defense.

So Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie and Dallas Clark can expect to see plenty of balls come their way.

And when S Ed Reed creeps up to take away Clark over the middle, look for Manning to pop a long TD to Wayne or Garcon as the Ravens are vulnerable to the deep ball.

Once the passing game has found its groove, expect a healthy dose of Joseph Addai.

We saw how difficult it is for high powered offenses to succeed on the passing game alone in last week’s game; the Pats were manhandled because they were predictable.

Addai will have some success, mostly on draws, but he’ll be used primarily as a receiver out of the backfield and to keep the Ravens’ front seven honest.

The first time these teams played the Colts were fortunate to win 17-15. Flacco was picked late as the Ravens were driving for a GW FG.

This time will be close as well, with the Colts pulling away late to win 24-14.

While the Ravens are certainly capable of winning this game, there’s only one way in which they’ll be able to do so: get a lead and run the ball.

If they can, they’ll have a chance; if they don’t, Flacco and Co. will not be able to carry this team to the win.

The 6.5 point spread is a good bet as well.

A few things to consider when analyzing this game before making your pick:

* The Jets needed last week’s game badly to make the Playoffs; the Bengals didn’t.

* The Bengals, with a win, would have secured the 3rd seed and faced the Ravens for the third time this season.  They’ve won the first two and beating a team three times in one season is something very difficult to accomplish.

* The Bengals sat Cedric Benson and a few of their other key defensive players.

* The Jets showed everything in their arsenal (offensively and defensively) while the Bengals showed very little.

Now to the rematch and how we see things shaping up on Saturday.

When the Bengals are on offense, look for Palmer to feed the ball to Cedric Benson between 25 and 30 times. It is imperative that the Bengals can get a solid running game going because their pass offense has been unable to carry them over the last six weeks of the season. What’s becoming more apparent is that when the late Chris Henry was placed on IR, the threat of a deep passing game went with him.

Aside from Ochocinco, who’s now slowed by a knee injury, Coles and Caldwell have failed to step up and this has defenses shifting focus to his side of the ball. The Jets have the luxury of being able to put CB Darrelle Revis on No. 85 in single coverage so the other receivers will need to step up and make plays when the opportunity presents itself.

When the Jets are on offense, expect them to follow a similar blueprint to the one they used in their blowout victory in Week 17. They will run the ball with Thomas Jones and Shonne Greene and hope that they can continue to pick up 1st downs in bunches.

But they’ll find things aren’t as easy this week when Mike Zimmer actually prepares his defense to take away the Jets lone offensive weapon: the running game.

Zimmer will keep his talented corners on an island against Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery and they’ll be able to lock them down. He’ll then bring extra help from the Safety position up to the line in order to render the Jets running game ineffective.

The lack of a running threat will induce Mark Sanchez into mistakes because he’s shown time and time again that he is not ready to carry this offense as a rookie.

This fact might have us seeing Brad Smith run the Wild Cat more frequently but although it caused some confusion and led to a score last Sunday, you can bet  the Bengals defenders will have things cleaned up by Saturday.

When the clock reaches 0:00,  expect Cincinnati to pull out a close 17-13 win. They’ll play exceptional defense and force Sanchez into a few turnovers which will be the deciding factor in the game.

The O/U of 34.5 is a good bet too.

This year, the Indianapolis Colts looked to be the next team with a chance for perfection, achieving a 14-0 record with two very winnable games before the playoffs. However, that chance came to a crashing halt on Sunday to an inferior New York Jets team, a game that is leaving analysts scratching their heads and sparking controversy across the country.

Jim Caldwell, first year coach of the Colts, made the decision to rest his starters in the third quarter after attaining a 15-10 lead. The Colts had been outplaying their opponent, and they were clearly on their way to victory number 15.

After the starters were pulled, the backup quarterback, a rookie, proceeded to fumble and have it recovered in the end zone giving the Jets the lead, and they never looked back en route to a 29-15 score.

Peyton Manning and company were left as spectators on the sidelines and watched their chance for immortality go the way of the Dodo.

Perfection was gone.

In the past few days, the Colts reaction to this controversy is simple; it is more important to win the super bowl than to be 16-0. With this statement, they are correct, but why couldn’t they have done both? They were in control of the game against the Jets, and many feel they would have won with Peyton and company in the game. At the point when they were taken out, the score was 15-10.

Why not let Peyton put the game away and secure the victory, when one more touchdown would have most likely been sufficient?

The problem I have with the Colts decision is not so much in they wanted to protect their players, but they gave away the game to the Jets. They flat out gave the Jets the game, and that is not right.

It is one thing to lose your perfect season because another team beats you, as the Colts have felt in the past, but it is quite another to just give away your perfect season.

I’m sure Mercury Morris and the rest of the Dolphins are popping their champagne right now, but I wonder how they feel about the mindset of the Colts, basically saying they can have their perfect season, because in the words of former Colts boss Jim Mora, the perfect season means “diddley poo.”

With a chance for perfection, the Colts took a pass. The Colts have been the winningest franchise this decade in the regular season, yet have stumbled multiple times in the playoffs, with only one Lombardi trophy to show for it. Their lack of desire to be perfect might reflect their overall lack of desire to be the best, and to be the team in the playoffs that wants it the most.

In the playoffs, where teams are fairly evenly matched, it can boil down to what team wants it more; what team is willing to put it all on the line for victory.

In the end, there are teams that strive to be .500, teams that strive to just get into the playoffs, teams that strive to win their division, teams that strive to win their conference, and teams that strive to win the Super Bowl.

However, there are also those that want more, to be the best of the best, to be perfect. On Sunday, we learned that the Colts are not one of those teams. A Super Bowl trophy shows that you were the best team in the league that year and you have reached the pinnacle of the sport, but the Colts gave away the chance for something so much more, the chance to be perfect.

- J Man

Does Arizona have a chance? Not likely. In fact, the line could be too low (for the Steelers). If there’s been one constant the entire season for Pittsburgh it’s been it’s defense. It ended up ranked #1 in the NFL and aside from their game vs. the Titans, were dominant against virtually every team they went against.

The offense, not so much; but they do just enough to eek out victories as evidenced by Troy Palumalu’s pick six last Sunday which gave the Steelers the win and the cover (of the spread). The Cardinals best shot to win this football game will be to stop the passing game. The Steelers running game is set up by the passing game, so by stopping Roethlisberger, you can contain Pittsburgh.

But it won’t be easy. The Cardinals success in each round of the playoffs has been predicated on stopping the opposing team’s running game and once they jumped out to a lead, they were able to feast on the passing game. I don’t think that will happen in this one. But we’ll see.

Crazier things have happened… I believe the 14-point dogs (NY Giants) beat the 18-0 Patriots in Super Bowl 42.

Regardless, there’s still eleven days until the big game and we’ll be sure to have much more in-depth analysis as we get closer to it.

Remember that 48-20 beating that the Eagles gave the Cardinals on Thanksgiving? After today, that seems like it happened eons ago.

The Arizona Cardinals came out scorching in the desert on this day, while the Eagles came out as they had in four of their previous five NFC Championship games, ice cold.

The first drive of the game kind of gave you the sense that it would be the WR Larry Fitzgerald show on this day. Warner targeted his favorite receiver for three catches and then hit him on a crossing pattern in the red zone which Fitzgerald was able to take across the goal line.

Philadelphia thought it could come out and rush only their front four and still get the necessary pressure on Warner, but after the first drive, they knew that plan wasn’t going to get it done. The Cardinals were able to keep the Eagles defense off-balance, something not easy to do against the third-ranked defense in the NFL, with a mixture of runs and high percentage pass plays.

And when they got it back after the Eagles had hit a FG, they included a little trickery to their offensive arsenal. On first down, Warner pitched the ball to his RB Edgerrin James, who in turn pitched it back to him. He looked down the field and saw Fitzgerald in single coverage against the Eagles’ third CB. After that, it was a matter of launching it down the field and letting his superstar receiver take over. 14-6.

For the rest of the half, the Eagles didn’t do much else on offense or defense, and found themselves in an 18-point hole.

But in the second half, the story would be very different. Sensing the desperation of their situation, the Eagles’ coaching staff made the necessary adjustments and the defense returned to dominant form. They limited Warner and Co. to just 12 plays on three three and outs.

McNabb also found his stride.

In a stretch which began with about six minutes left in the third quarter, Donovan torched the Cards for three TDs, hitting TE Brent Celek for two TDs and rookie WR DeSean Jackson for one on a 60+ yard bomb.

And with that score, the Eagles had taken a 25-24 lead with ten minutes to play and had all of the momentum.

But they couldn’t keep it up. Warner, who had been ice cold in the second half, orchestrated a 14 play, 72 yard drive that consumed over seven minutes of the clock. And on a crucial 3rd-and-goal from the 10, Arizona called a screen pass – the perfect play call – and RB Tim Hightower executed it to perfection and took it in for the go ahead TD. After the two point conversion, it was 32-25 with just under three minutes left to play.

Now is when legends are made. The one blemish on Donovan McNabb’s career to date has been his inability to perform in big games and clutch situations. Coming into this football game, he was batting .250 in NFC Championship Games and lost his only Super Bowl. Here was an opportunity to change that legacy.

Unfortunately for McNabb, it was not to be. He was erratic on the entire final drive – constantly throwing high or behind his targets, and after an incomplete out pattern to WR Kevin Curtis on 4th down, which could’ve been called for pass interference, he saw another golden opportunity to solidify his legacy and get his team to a Super Bowl slip right through his fingers.

Game over.

So the Cardinals, a team that most will call this year’s New York Giants, (although that comparison would be inaccurate because they played two home games in the playoffs,so the 2006 Colts would be a better comparison), advance to play in the Super Bowl while the Eagles, who had a great year in their own right, will kick themselves over this one because everything was set up for them to advance to the Super Bowl.

It’s actually quite unbelievable to think these two teams, neither of which finished with 10 wins in the regular season would be here, but both have stepped up in January and earned the right to play in the NFC Championship Game.

The Eagles are here after annihilating the Cowboys 44-6 on the final Sunday of the regular season, and then defeating both the Vikings 23-14 and Giants 23-11 in the first two rounds of the playoffs.

The Cardinals are here after holding off the Atlanta Falcons 30-24 in the Wild Card round and then going on the road and destroying the Panthers 33-13 in the Divisional Round.

The first time these teams played, the Eagles won 48-20 on Thanksgiving night; expect a closer outcome in this one.

When the Eagles have the ball, look for them to continue doing what they’ve done in the playoffs: use the short passing game to set-up the run. The Cardinals are very good at loading the box (with S Adrian Wilson) to take away a team’s running game. They did this last Saturday against Carolina, and that defensive scheme coupled with HC John Fox’s horrible game plan, kept the Panthers’ two-headed running game in check all night. Once that was the case, the Cardinals pass rush was able to key on Delhomme and force the QB into six turnovers.

So the Eagles will use the slant pattern and quick pass to WR’s Avant and Curtis and TE’s Celek and Smith to keep the Cardinals honest. And once they have some success doing this, look for them to feed the ball to RB Westbrook and try and isolate him against the Cardinals’ LBs and take advantage of Westbrook’s game-breaking ability.

This in turn will keep McNabb off his back—pocket protection will be good, and then he’ll have a chance to go up top to speedster DeSean Jackson when the opportunity presents itself. But don’t expect too many opportunities; Rookie CB Rodgers-Cromartie has been playing big time football so they’ll have catch them off guard if they want to hit on a big one.

When the Cardinals have the ball, look for them to continue to pound the rock with the Edge. Everyone knows Arizona can pass on anyone; that was never an issue. The problem they faced late in the season was by becoming one-dimensional, defenses were able to drop more guys in coverage and this led to an overall offensive drop in production against the better teams in the NFL.

So the Cardinals will try and get 15-20 carries to RB James just to keep Philly’s defense honest. The Eagles come into this game with the third best defense in the NFL, so don’t expect much from the ground, but by sticking to the run, it’ll have a neutralizing effect on the Eagles’ blitz package and provide more opportunities in the passing game.

And that’s where the Cardinals will look to attack with Fitzgerald, Boldin (if healthy enough to go), and Breaston.

In today’s game, the rules are decidedly in favor of the offense, i.e. DBs can’t be as physical as they were in the 90s and earlier, so receivers are given freedom to run their routes and any sort of contact is usually flagged. So if the Cardinals offensive line can provide Warner with adequate protection—a big if facing the top rated defense in the NFC—he’ll be able to locate his outside targets. And once he does, those talented receivers have the ability to take it all the way to the house.

So look for Eagles’ DC Jim Johnson to come out and rush only four down lineman to put pressure on Warner, but if the QB begins to have success, pressure will come from all over. And that’s when either Warner will kill the Eagles with precise passing, or Philly will force him into sacks and turnovers.

As the NFC Championship Game comes to a close, look for the Eagles to pull out a slim victory—in the 24-21 or 21-17 vicinity. Both teams are playing well on both sides of the ball: The Eagles are playing excellently on defense and efficiently on offense while the Cardinals are playing excellently on offense and efficiently on defense. And while the Cardinals will have the advantage of playing this one at home, the Eagles are showing that mental toughness that makes them too hard to pick against.

So the Eagles and McNabb will finally have a shot to win their first World Championship in franchise history, while the Cardinals will head home after exceeding everyone’s expectations in professional football,  including their own.

The Cardinals finally got smart. After attempting to play an entire second half of the NFL season without a running game, and getting obliterated by every playoff contender they faced, Whisenhunt got wise: He put Edgerrin James back in the lineup. And his fresh legs showed as he rumbled for 73 yards in the contest.

What this did was keep the Falcons’ defense off balance and make the passing game that much more effective; a tired front four can’t apply the same pressure on QBs late in the game and that’s exactly what happened in this one.

Warner was effective throughout, hitting on one beautiful TD pass to Fitzgerald and then a 70 yard TD pass to Boldin, who managed to catch an eight yard crossing pattern and take it all the way to the house, but the turning point in the game came on the second play of the second half.

On a QB Matt Ryan hand off to RB Michael Turner, who was kept under wraps all afternoon, DE Dockett burst through the line and knocked the ball into the air. S Antrelle Rolle was there to scoop up the gift and take it to the house for six. 21-17 and the momentum had clearly changed.

After going up 30-17 late in the 4th, the Falcons rallied to make it 30-24, but when it came time to get one crucial stop, the defense had nothing left in the tank. On a 3rd and 16, with a chance to get the ball back for the offense with just over two minutes remaining in the football game, the LBs inexplicably left the TE alone and he managed a 1st down. Game over.

So with the win the Cardinals will travel either to the Giants or Panthers, depending on the outcome of the Vikings game today, while the Falcons, who had a heck of a year, are home for the rest of the playoffs.

In the late football game, we witnessed quite a thriller. Not that we should have expected anything different after the battles these teams have had over the past few years. The Colts, confident and riding a nine game winning streak, took on the Chargers in San Diego and were upended in OT 23-17.

The Chargers played one heck of a game defensively. DC Ron Turner mixed his blitzes up beautifully and threw Manning’s rhythm and timing off all night, and with no running game to speak of (Addai and Rhodes combined for 58 yards on 20 carries), the Chargers were able to key against the pass.

And aside from one long TD pass to Wayne, which came courtesy of a defense not ready for the play, Manning had another typical playoff performance: Decent numbers but unable to make the crucial play at the key moment.

And the crucial play came with just over two minutes left on a 3rd and two. Had the Colts made a 1st down, they could’ve run the clock out. Instead, the Colts spread out their offense and after Manning pumped to his first guy, who was not open, he was clobbered by the Chargers LB for a sack at the one yard line. The Colts were forced to punt and the Chargers drove for a game tying FG.

On the other side of the ball, the Chargers were equally unimpressive aside from the speed demon known as RB Darren Sproles. After a groin injury limited Tomlinson to just five carries, Sproles took over and was the man of the night. Having to pick up the slack for Rivers, who was off all night, the scat back reached the 100-yard plateau on his final carry in OT as he made up for an earlier goal line fumble and propelled his team into the 2nd round of the playoffs.

So the Bolts are moving on while the Colts, winners of nine straight games, are sent home early once again in what’s come to be expected from Peyton and his crew in the playoffs. Aside from 2006, and a couple of gifts that season—the top seeded Chargers getting knocked out, Manning’s now 7-8 in the post season.