TEs who will outperform their ESPN Fantasy Rankings Week 1.

Richard Rodgers vs. Chi (ranked 21) - The Bears are soft in the secondary, and will have a long day vs. Aaron Rodgers and Co. A primary beneficiary of Jordy Nelson’s injury could be more looks to Rodgers.

Kyle Rudolph vs. SF (ranked 14) – Last year’s fantasy darling never panned out. But this is a good play here. The 49ers struggled vs opposing TEs.

Tyler Eifert vs. Oak (ranked 13) - The job is his after Jermaine Gresham’s departure. The Raiders have a number of holes in the secondary and will have matchup issues all day vs. this talented offense.

Zack Ertz vs Atl (ranked 20) - A major disappointment a year ago. Hopes are high now. He is healthy and you can expect him get into the action from the get go on Monday night.

Ladarius Green vs. Det  (ranked 16) – Green benefits from Gates suspension. Look for the lanky but quick TE to catch 4 balls for over 70 yards.

TEs who will underperform in Week 1

Jimmy Graham vs. Stl (ranked 2) – Graham is ESPN’s #2 rated TE. He’s in a new offense and facing a very aggressive and physical defense. Look for a slow start out of the gate.

Delanie Walker vs. TB (ranked 7)- Walker’s rated 8th. TB covers TEs well and the Titans are breaking in a new QB in Marcus Mariota. He may look Walker’s way more frequently but we expect him to struggle.

Top Pick

1. New England Patriots (-6.5) vs. Ind – I get it, Andrew Luck is a beast, the Colts are starting to figure things out and are coming off a great road win in Denver. It still won’t matter. New England should win this by double digits. The Colts don’t stop the run very well so you can expect a heavy dosage of RB LeGarrette Blount and even Jonas Gray, who ran for 199 and 4 TDs against Indy the last time they played.

Defensively, New England doesn’t have to worry about a running game so you can expect a scheme heavily intent on defensing the pass. The Colts continue to take steps to reach the top of the mountain but will fall short once again.

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2. Green Bay Packers (+7) vs. Sea – The Seahawks are a good bet to win. But not by a TD. Green Bay will be the most complete team they’ve faced on their winning streak and the 1st legit QB outside of Cam Newton, who is not near Rodgers’ class. Russell Wilson’s offense struggled down the stretch (minus the Cards game) and the Packers bring in a pretty good D.

Expect the Packers to keep the Seahawks under 21. On the other side of the ball the Packers will have some success and hit on a big play here and there. We think the Packers could pull off the upset (money line bet is +225) but will certainly cover the point spread.

Must Start

Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck and Matthew Stafford

Tier 1

Ben Roethlisbger vs. Atl – Roethlisberger and Co. will light up the Falcons secondary.

Tom Brady vs. Mia – Brady will top 250 yards with 2-3 TDs.

Aaron Rodgers vs. Buf – This is a trickier matchup. The Bills D is tough – especially at home.

Philip Rivers vs. Den – Expect 22-25 FFL points vs. the Broncos.

Tony Romo vs. Phi – Look for a bounce back from the last performance against the Eagles.

Cam Newton vs. TB – Newton is coming off a monster performance and faces a healthy matchup here.

Drew Brees vs. Chi – Brees threw in a stinker in Week 14. The Bears D is poor.

Jay Cutler vs. No – Only because the Saints D is just as bad.

Tier 2

Eli Manning vs. Was -Manning will hit 13-17 FFL points against the Skins.

Mark Sanchez vs. Dal – The Cowboys D is winded. Sanchez will put up 3 TDs and 225 yards against this unit.

Russell Wilson vs. SF – The 49ers are done. Expect Wilson to put up between 15-17 points.

Bust

Ryan Tannehill vs. NE – The Patriots D will force a few turnovers.

Fantasy Sleeper

Joe Flacco vs. Jax – Jacksonville’s D is ripe to give up a lot of pass yards.

Must Start

San Francisco,  Denver and Green Bay

Tier 1

Houston Texans vs. Jax – JJ Watt and Co. will force 3+ turnovers.

Detroit Lions vs. TB – Josh McCown is a turnover waiting to happen.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pit – The Steelers are a very different road team. The Bengals are getting healthy defensively.

Minnesota Vikings vs. NYJ – Minnesota welcomes the sight of QB Geno Smith.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Cle – The Colts D is a better play if QB Manziel starts.

Tier 2

Seattle Seahawks vs. Phi – The Seahawks will limit Sanchez’s effectiveness and force multiple TDs.

New England Patriots vs. SD – New England’s D will clamp down on Rivers and Co. Very tough to pass on this unit.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Sea – The attacking Eagles D will keep the Seahawks to under 17 points.

Bust

Buffalo Bills vs. Den – It’s tough on any defense to perform well in Denver.

Fantasy Sleeper

New Orleans Saints vs. Car – The Saints D put the clamps on Newton and Co. in Carolina and the Panthers come into this in no better shape.

Must Start

Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers

Tier 1

Tony Romo vs. Chi – Romo will bounce back from an awful Thanksgiving performance.

Matthew Stafford vs. TB – With a healthy Calvin Johnson the Lions QB is now a 22-25 FFL point candidate.

Tom Brady vs. SD – Expect 300 yards and 3 TDs in SD.

Jay Cutler vs. Dal – The Cowboys D is suddenly tired and showing signs of wear and tear.

Russell Wilson vs. Phi – His maneuverability will be good for 20+ FFL points in Philly.

Tier 2

Ben Roethlisberger vs. Cin – Roethlisberger’s numbers are down on the road and Cincy’s D is tough at home.

Philip Rivers vs. NE – The tough Patriots pass D brings Rivers down a notch.

Fantasy Sleeper

Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Jax – Don’t expect 6 TDs but is a fantasy football sleeper against the Jags.

Bust

Mark Sanchez vs. Sea – Chip Kelly’s innovative offense will have its hands full with the Seahawks.

Top Pick

1. Baltimore Ravens (-6) vs. SD – Baltimore is a very difficult place to play after Thanksgiving.

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2. Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) vs. TB – The Bengals defense is getting healthier and they’ve put the clamps down on the Saints and Texans respectively. They’ll do so again against a reeling Bucs unit.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5) vs. NO – The Saints have lost three in a row (all at home) and are an average outdoor team.

4. New England Patriots (+3) vs. GB – See money line bet.

Rounding Things Out

Denver Broncos (-2) vs. KC – Last week’s loss against the Raiders for the Chiefs was a trap game, but they’re missing the requisite firepower to knock off the Broncos.

Atlanta Falcons (+2) vs. Arz – The Cardinals have gotten everything out of its talent and are trying to win with QB Drew Stanton the rest of the way. This will be a tougher game than many realize.

Oakland Raiders (+7) vs. Stl. – The Rams D has stepped up considerably but there are still major issues on offense. Look for Oakland to keep this close throughout.

Money Line Bet

New England Patriots (+140) vs. GB – The Packers have whipped opponents recently at home, putting up 50+ respectively against the Eagles and Bears. The Patriots are an interesting team because they can beat opponents multiple ways and their D is set up to stop the pass. Look for a close game which New England pulls out.

Must Start

Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Andrew Luck

Tier 1

Aaron Rodgers vs. NE – This is his toughest test of the season.

Tony Romo vs. Phi – The Eagles will be forced to commit more against the run which will open up the passing games.

Ben Roethlisberger vs. NO – It’s been light and day Roethlisberger when playing at home or the road. He’s home this week.

Drew Brees vs. Pit – He’ll be firing and the Steelers D is a bit limited. But Brees struggles on grass surfaces away from home.

Matt Stafford vs. Chi – Nothing like the Bears D to get Stafford back on track.

Ryan Tannehill vs. NYJ – Jets are midpack stopping the pass.

Eli Manning vs. Jax – The Eli to ODB connection should be on display against a giving Jaguars D. Eli is a low No. 1.

Tier 2

Mark Sanchez vs. Dal – Dallas ranks 19th vs. the pass and Philly will be throwing all afternoon. Expect 17-20 points.

Cam Newton vs. Min – Newton will put 14-17 FFL points at Minnesota.

Andy Dalton vs. TB – This is another strong play for Dalton. Bucs bottom 25.

Russell Wilson vs. SF – The 49ers run a strong D, so look for Wilson to pick up points with his legs.

Matt Ryan vs. Arz – The Cards rank at the bottom 3rd of the league against the pass.

Bust

Jay Cutler vs. Det – The Lions aggressive D will be all over Cutler on Thursday.

Fantasy Sleeper

Drew Stanton vs. Atl – The Falcons pass D ranks dead last. Look for Stanton to put up 17-20 FFL points.

Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Andrew Luck

Tier 1

Tony Romo vs. NYG – He’ll feast on a Giants D that is depleted and struggling in coverage.

Tom Brady vs. Det – The Lions present a big challenge, but this is in NE and Brady is on fire.

Mark Sanchez vs. Ten – This offense suits him well.

Tier 2

Eli Manning vs. Dal – Look for Manning to top 20 FFL points against the Boys.

Colin Kaepernick vs. Was – He’ll be a threat running as well as passing.

Andy Dalton vs. Hou – Dalton will put up 15-18 FFL points.

Jay Cutler vs. TB – He will probably toss a couple of picks but he’s in line for a big afternoon.

Ryan Tannehill vs. Den – Expect 15-18 FFL points against a tough Broncos D.

Philip Rivers vs. Stl. – Rivers enjoys a solid match up here.

Fantasy Sleeper

Josh McCown vs. Chi – Expect McCown to put on a solid showing against his old compatriots.

Bust

Matt Stafford vs. NE – The Pats secondary is its strength.

1. Detroit Lions (EVEN) vs. Arz – The Cardinals have performed amazingly this season despite so many players hurt. QB Drew Stanton went 2-1 in his earlier stint but now gets a top defense that has made the lives of opposing QBs miserable. Expect the Lions to cover the point spread and pull out a close one on the road.

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2. New England (+3) vs. Ind – The Colts are favored because this is at home. New England’s hot on both sides of the ball and their D will be the deciding factor.

3. Cincinnati Bengals (+7.5) vs. NO – The Bengals are banged up on the offense line and at the LBer position. They could be getting help this week and will put on a better showing than last Thursday Night.

4. Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) vs. Chi – See money line bet.

Rounding Things Out

Kansas City Chiefs (-2) vs. Sea – Arrowhead is a tough place to play. Look for the Chiefs D to smother Russell Wilson and force a few turnovers.

Carolina Panthers (+1) vs. Atl – Both teams are down but the Panthers will do just enough to pull out the home win.

Oakland Raiders (+10) vs. Den – The game last week was actually close for much of the 1st half. Then Peyton Manning went crazy. The Chargers are not the Broncos and are still pretty banged up. Expect a close game between these rivals.

Money Line Bet

Minnesota Vikings (+128) vs. Chi – The Bears are going nowhere fast. The issues they are experiencing are more systemic and there’s not a simple fix. Expect the Vikings, who are playing better defensively over the past month, to come into Chicago and pull out the win.

Must Start

Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski and Julius Thomas

Tier 1

Antonio Gates vs. Oak – Look for Gates to find the end zone against his rival on Sunday.

Greg Olsen vs. Atl – He’s Newton’s safest option at this point. Will top 90 yards and find the end zone.

Martellus Bennett vs. Min – The Bears are struggling. Look for Cutler to get his TE involved with shorter throws.

Zac Ertz vs. GB – Sanchez looks for his TEs more than Foles did.

Dwayne Allen vs. NE – Look for Luck to target his TEs as the Pats CBs will play the receivers close.

Tier 2

Larry Donnell vs. SF – Donnell is a low No. 1 this week.

Travis Kelce vs Sea – The Seahawks haven’t stopped TEs as well in 2014. Kelce will bounce back from his poor effort a week ago.

Charles Clay vs. Buf – Clay has been inconsistent. He’ll top 10 FFL points on TNF.

Jordan Reed vs. TB – Expect Reed to get back on track in RGIII’s 2nd start.

Jared Cook vs. Den – The Broncos have consistently struggled covering the TE postion.

Bust

Vernon Davis vs. NYG – Something is not right here.

Fantasy Sleeper

Mychael Rivera vs. SD – Rivera has come out of nowhere to become a viable fantasy option. He’ll top 12 FFL points in standard leagues.