Top Pick

1. Minnesota Vikings (-6) vs. Chi – The turn back to Jay Cutler means nothing. Chicago is in a state of turmoil and can’t wait to get the season over with. Minnesota has grown under 1st year HC Mike Zimmer and will finish out the season with a bang at home. Look for the Vikings to win by 10 and cover the point spread.

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2. Green Bay Packers (-7.5) vs. Det – Some may call last week a trap game for the Lions, but not us. That’s typical Matt Stafford being unable to capitalize on things given to him. The Packers will be ready in a game with a ton of meaning and look for a double digit win.

3. New York Giants (-3) vs. Phi – The Eagles three-game losing streak knocked them out of playoff contention and means this game has little meaning. Well, it has more for the Giants who are playing a number of young players on their three-game winning streak. Look for that to move to four as the Odell Beckham Jr. show continues against a horrendous secondary.

4. Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) vs. Pit – See money line bet.

Rounding Things Out

Carolina Panthers (+4) vs. Atl – This will be close but Cam Newton will be the difference.

San Diego Chargers (+3) vs. KC – Win and they’re in. Look for the Chargers to beat their rival.

Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) vs. Was – Dallas needs to win first and then get a lot of help for a No. 1 or 2 seed. There will not be a letdown here.

Money Line Bet

Cincinnati Bengals (+170) vs. Pit – The Steelers are very talented on offense but erratic. This is a game which could catch them by surprise. The Bengals move to RB Jeremy Hill as the starter has been a boon to the offense and they will continue to ride their young horse Sunday. Everything else feeds off of this. The Bengals D is also much improved since their last contest after getting a few guys back.

Top pick

1. Detroit Lions vs. Pit – This game will be competitive, but the Lions will end up with the W. Something is missing from this year’s version of the Steelers and its D is a shell of its former self. The Lions are atop the NFC North and recognize the opportunity to win the division with QB Aaron Rodgers sidelined.

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2. Arizona Cardinals vs. Jax – Lightning won’t strike twice for the Jaguars. They’re back at home where they’ve been terrible so far, and that trend will continue against a Cardinals team with a talented D.

3. Houston Texans vs. Oak – The return of HC Gary Kubiak will energize this team and propel them to a win against a feisty Raiders team. However, QB Terrelle Pryor is dealing with a knee injury and if he’s asked to win by throwing the ball, that’s not going to happen at this time.

Note – if you’ve managed to keep the better teams around this late in the season, locks this week are Seattle, Cincinnati and Denver, although Kansas City comes in with a 9-0 record.

Green Bay Packers: 4-3

The Packers skill positions on offense will be high on everyone’s fantasy football draft board. The unit put up points in droves a year ago and should be a force once again. Aaron Rodgers is an elite QB and the team addressed – and upgraded – one of the few areas of weakness in 2009, the offensive line.

The defense significantly improved under DC Dom Capers and will be an attacking unit once again. DE Johnny Jolley’s suspension will hurt from a personnel standpoint, but there’s more than enough talent to be one of the better units in the NFL.

Minnesota Vikings: 7-5

An ill fated last second pass by Brett Favre in the NFC Championship Game cost the Vikings a chance to advance and probably win the Super Bowl. Entering 2010, Favre is still playing the “I might retire game,” but he’ll be back. The offense is littered with talent across the board and this is one of the few organizations where the talent can overcome the mediocrity of its head coach (Brad Childress).

On defense, Leslie Frazier possesses a keen defensive mind and has the players necessary to run his style of defense. With the probably return of MLB EJ Henderson, who was lost to a bad knee injury late in the season, expect this team to remain one of the elite.

Chicago Bears: 16-5

The Bears were busy in the offseason. In Free Agency, they landed prize DE Julius Peppers, and they added two new coordinators to the coaching staff: OC Mike Martz and DC Rod Marinelli. On offense, the Bears have some talent. The biggest issue will be whether the offensive line can pass block for QB Jay Cutler and open up holes for RB Matt Forte, who proved to be a bust in 2009.

QB Jay Cutler’s penchant for making reckless throws could be on full display if OC Mike Martz, known for exposing his QBs to opposing pass rushes, doesn’t tighten up his pass blocking schemes.  The defense should be a competitive unit this year but Rod Marinelli has never called plays during a game, so it remains to be seen how effective he will be.

Detroit Lions: 15-1

Things are slowly getting better in Detroit, but not yet to the point of competing for anything above 3rd place. And even that’s probably a tall order at this point. On offense, QB Matt Stafford will improve in year two and he has plenty to work with at the skill positions, starting with superstar WR Calvin Johnson.

The offensive line is still the biggest concern on offense. The defensive picture is less certain but 1st round selection DT Ndamukong Suh provides hope. 4-6 wins appears to be this team’s ceiling in 2010.

Pro Football 101 Betting Strategy:

In a move which goes somewhat against the grain, we’re placing our football bet on the Minnesota Vikings at 7 – 5, rather than the favored Green Bay Packers. The main reason is the Packers opponents. The 2nd place schedule they must play is in our minds more difficult than the 1st. The Ravens, Niners and Falcons are all going to be tougher in 2010 than the Bengals, Saints and Cardinals.  And a 140 percent return on your money for the defending NFC North Champs is not too shabby.

1. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings have an elite defense, which finished sixth in fantasy football last season with 206 points. It probably would’ve ranked higher if its offense could consistently sustain drives and put points on the board, but even with the great Adrian Peterson, overcoming Tavaris Jackson and Gus Frerrote proved to be too much. Well, that should change if Brett Favre joins the squad.

Look for the Williams’ tandem inside, Jared Allen on the outside, plus the wealth of talent in the back seven (Greenway, Winfield, etc.) to once again enjoy a stellar season and make life miserable for the other NFC North teams.

Special Teams player: When Bernard Berrian is used, he’s explosive, as evidenced by his 82-yard return for a TD.

2. Chicago Bears

The Bears under Lovie Smith have always ranked well defensively and things should be no different in 2009. In fact, it could be even better if Cutler can come in and help lead Chicago to early leads because then the attacking Bears’ defense can do what it does best and wreak havoc on opposing offenses. In 2008 the unit finished with 202 fantasy points and eighth overall.

And with a fairly mediocre schedule this year playing the likes of the NFC West and AFC North, figure the Bears to put up antoher top 10 fantasy scoring effort.

Special Teams: Devin Hester is the most explosive special teams player in the game and good for at least four return TDs this season.

3. Green Bay Packers

The Packers defense took a huge step back in 2008 and was the weak link of the team, finishing middle of the pack and with 169 fantasy points. The trading of DT Corey Williams prior to the season, the loss of LB Nick Barnett and CB Al Harris to injuries during the season, and the ineffectiveness of DE Kabeer Gbaj-Biamila was all too much to overcome.

GM Ted Thompson took the necessary steps to shore up his defense by selecting DT B.J. Raji and LB Clay Mathews in the first round of the NFL Draft. But it was the signing of Dom Capers, who brings with him his 3-4 defense, which should have the biggest impact. Look for Green Bay to rebound nicely in 2009 and be a strong fantasy sleeper play.

Special Teams: Will Blackmon is  a dangerous return man who brought two back to the house in ’08.  Look for a repeat effort in ’09.

4. Detroit Lions

The Lions only receive mention in this posting because we must cover all defenses in the division. But after ranking second to last in the league (62 points) in 2008 there’s just not much to write about.

The lowlight of a season ago came on Thanksgiving Day when the Titans rattled off 35 first half points and Chris Johnson had put up over 100 yards and two TDs in the first quarter alone.

However, there is some hope in Detroit going forward as they’ve signed Linebackers Julian Peterson and Larry Foote, CB Anthony Henry, and newly hired head coach, Jim Schwartz, was the longtime defensive coordinator of those impressive Titans’ defenses. But without the players on the defensive line, you can’t execute the strategy, so wait a year or two before considering the Lions for your fantasy defense.

Special Teams: Adam Jennings handles punt returns although he’s not much of a threat to score.