Top Pick

1. Denver Broncos (-7.5) vs. Arz – Both teams are coming off a bye but it looks like the Cardinals will have to go with QB Drew Stanton again. That’ll be tough facing an improved Broncos D. Look for Peyton and Co. to fire on all cylinders and cover the point spread.

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2. Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) vs. Jax – The Jaguars will face an embarrassed team on Sunday. Look for Pittsburgh to add to the Jags’ woes and throttle them by double digits.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+11) vs NO – The Saints will likely win, but something is missing from this year’s team. They’re not nearly as good on defense, and the offense isn’t scoring at will like it has in the past. The Bucs will keep this one close.

4. Kansas City Chiefs (+5.5) vs. SF – See money line bet.

Rounding Things Out

New York Giants (-4) vs. Atl – The Falcons are banged up along the OL and have a poor defense. The Giants are much improved in recent weeks and will win this by a TD.

Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) vs. Ind – The Colts D is the biggest worry for this team. The Ravens are a slightly more well rounded team and will cover the point spread. They may win.

Cincinnati Bengals (EVEN) vs. NE – Bill Belichick is masterful at putting bad losses behind him but he’s not a magician who can wave a magic wand and cure his team’s OL woes. They’re real and the entire offense will continue to suffer as a result. It’ll keep the D on the field longer than it wants to be as well. Look for the Bengals, who are the more complete team, to win in New England.

Money Line Bet

Kansas City Chiefs (+205) vs. SF – There is something not right about these 49ers on offense and rumors persist of locker room discontent. While the latter is just a rumor, the poor play on offense is not. The Chiefs match up well and look for Alex Smith and Co. to get the better of his old team on Sunday.

Top Pick

1. Atlanta Falcons vs. Oak – The Falcons are flying high at 5-0 but their recent wins have been close to the end. The Raiders are coming off a bye week in which they hope to have corrected a number of issues they had to start the season, but even if they have, it’ll only be enough to keep this game close throughout.

The Falcons are very good at home and won’t lose to the Raiders in Week 6.

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2. New England Patriots vs. Sea – Yes, the Seahawks are tough at home. And yes, they have a very good defense, but no, they’re not going to beat New England here. Bill Belichick will have a defensive scheme that will confuse and force QB Russell Wilson into mistakes, while offensively, Tom Brady and the Pats have too much firepower for the Seahawks to slow down for four quarters.

Expect a 14-7 to 17-7 outcome.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. KC – The Chiefs come in banged up and playing lousy football, and will have QB Brady Quinn behind center when they travel to Tampa. The Bucs are coming off a bye week and Schiano’s squad will cover the point spread and win this by at least a TD.

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

The point spread is also only a FG opposed to the 12-point line the Pats were favored by in Arizona.

When the Giants have the ball, expect them to attack with the pass to set up the run. The Patriots pass D is poor and often times they ask WR Julian Edelman to play in the slot. That’s a tall order considering he’ll be lining up against Victor Cruz much of the evening.

The Giants other receivers (Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham) also have a decided advantage over the DBs that will be covering them.

The key for the Patriots will be how well they disguise their coverages and how effective DT Vince Wilfork and the front four pressure Eli. If they can, it will limit some of the Giants effectiveness, especially down the field, but the Giants offensive line has actually pass blocked well over the 2nd half of the season, the NFC Championship game excluded. But that was against an excellent Niners D on a sloppy field; not the 31st ranked Pats D in a dome.

An X factor in this game will be RB Ahmad Bradshaw.  He missed the Week 9 contest and will be difficult for the Pats to contain as a runner and receiver out of the backfield.

When the Patriots have the ball, look for New England to throw a wrinkle at the Giants and come out running the ball out of the spread offense. They don’t want to become too one dimensional because that plays right into the Giants main strength, which is getting after the QB.

So, they’ll likely employ a quick passing game to go with the run and pick their spots when to open it up.

But a lot will depend on Brady’s ability to keep the Giants D off balance. If he is unable to do this, it could be a long evening for him.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis could be an effective runner as well as the Giants mostly use the Nickel D vs high powered passing offenses.

The X Factors will be their TEs, and namely, Rob Gronkowski. He’s coming off a bad ankle injury and it’s unlikely that he’ll be more than 60-70% healthy. If he becomes a non-factor, it will allow New York to play one man on him rather than two, and they’ll then shift their attention to Aaron Hernandez, the other talented TE.

When it’s all said and done, look for the Giants to win their 2nd Super Bowl in five years.

Both coaches are excellent at game planning and preparing their teams, but the Giants have the better and deeper team.

The Patriots lack of a deep threat coupled with the Giants ferocious pass rush also means that New England will be forced to rely on long drives to put points on the board, which will not be so easy to do. Whereas the Giants offense is a threat to strike at any time.

New York Giants 31 – New England Patriots 21

San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) vs. New Orleans Saints – The Saints are getting all of the love in the media as the team to beat and have been made a 3.5 favorite in San Francisco.

Before everyone begins booking hotel rooms in Indianapolis, they may want to step back and analyze the facts a bit more closely.

New Orleans is 0-4 in road playoff games and their offensive production dropped dramatically when on the road AND on grass in 2011.

They even lost at Tampa Bay.

When the Saints have the ball, look for them to attack with the pass to set up the run. If there’s one area to attack the 49ers defense, it’s the secondary.

The problem with this is San Francisco will press the receivers and disrupt the timing of the routes, which is how the Saints’ passing game usually works to perfection.

The Niners front will pressure Brees into getting rid of the ball sooner than he’d like and rely on dump-offs and check downs for most of the afternoon.

The Saints running game will not be much of a factor on Saturday.

When the Niners have the ball, they’ll need to employ the quick passing game to offset the blitz, which is exactly how Gregg Williams’ defense will attack Alex Smith. But Jim Harbaugh is creative enough to draw up plays to exploit mismatches against the Saints average secondary and will do so.

This will force New Orleans to keep a Safety deep which will help out the running game

The X factor will once again be K David Akers. He’s had an amazing year and will play a prominent role as the 49ers struggle to score in the red zone.

Look for a very competitive game in which the 49ers not only cover the point spread, but pull out the 23-20 win.

AFC

New England Patriots (-13.5) vs. Denver Broncos – The Patriots caught a bit of a break when the Broncos upset the Steelers last Sunday. While John Fox is a heck of a coach, the Broncos D doesn’t have the personnel or scheme to disrupt Brady the way that Pittsburgh could have.

When the teams met in December, New England routed Denver 41-23.

There’s no reason to assume things will be different this time.

When New England has the ball, expect Brady to once again run the offense through its TE’s (Gronkowski and Hernandez). This will force Denver to pay attention to the middle of the field which will open up opportunities for Welker and Co.

And with the Safeties and LB’ers focusing on the TE’s the Pats will be able to successfully mix in the run.

When the Broncos have the ball, they’ll once again try and pound the rock. Although the Pats secondary is porous, Tebow’s not going to consistently beat them through the air like they did Pittsburgh.

And Denver knows this.

Their best opportunity is to eat away at the clock and keep Tom Brady sitting on the sidelines.

While it sounds great in theory, it won’t happen on Saturday night.

Look for New England to roll at home 41-17.

Chicago Bears (-10)

Expect a cold, poor weather day in Chicago, and for Matt Forte and Co. to move the ball up and down the field on Sunday. On the other side of the ball, look for Julius Peppers and the defense to make life miserable for Matt Hasselback all afternoon.

Expect a 27-10 finish.

New England Patriots (-9) vs. New York Jets – The 45-3 outcome was not an aberration, although New England peaked around this time. Teams now have more film to look at and we expect the Jets to make some adjustments on defense, minimizing New England’s effectiveness to an extent. But it will still not be enough. Tom Brady and Co. will put up 28 points on New York.

Defensively, while Mark Sanchez has taken some steps forward since that game, Bill Belichick will break him down and force him into another turnover prone game. Sanchez has struggled mightily in his two career starts in New England.

The game may stay close to the half, but look for the Patriots to pull away and win by double digits to advance to the AFC title game.

While Saturday goes to the underdogs, Sunday is all about the favorites.