Seattle Seahawks (+1) vs. NE

Deflategate is somewhat behind us and the Super Bowl is here. The sports books have this game very evenly matched, although late money this week was going on the Patriots.

When New England has the ball. Look for the Patriots to work in their TEs into the match-up. Rob Gronkowski needs to be a major target and the wild card is backup TE, Tim Wright. The Patriots know they’ll have limited success attacking the Seahawks outside.

They also won’t be able to run the ball. Therefore, the attack must run through their TEs which is a position that has given the Seahawks trouble this year. However, that will be a difficult strategy to keep up over four quarters and against a relentless Seahawks D. The lack of a run threat means Brady will have pressure in his face much of the evening and will be forced to get rid of the ball earlier than he would like.

When Seattle has the ball. They will pound the rock. Justin Forsett had a lot of success against the Patriots run D and Marshawn Lynch is significantly better than Forsett. Seattle will pound the ball but New England will know this and load up the box. CB Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner can lock up the Seahawks outside threats pretty well so Belichick will not have to double anyone.

TE Luke Willson could be a nice sleeper because he has a knack for getting open and making big plays. The Pats Safeties are good, but not great. Expect things to start slow for the passing game but pick up when Wilson incorporates his version of the read option. His ability to make plays out of the pocket and extend them is uncanny and will give the Patriots D all sorts of problems in the 2nd half.

It’s a fairly even matched game but when the clock hits 0:00, look for Seattle to repeat as champions with a 24-14 or 27-17 win. Brady will have trouble with the Seahawks pass rush and Seattle is the more physical team.

1. Green Bay Packers (-13) vs. Atl – Until the Patriots, the Packers were putting up an insane amount of points at home and blowing teams out. That will happen on Monday Night. Look for Green Bay to put up 40+.

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2. New England Patriots (-3.5) vs. SD – The Pats have been on fire before meeting Aaron Rodgers and Co. a week ago. They still had a chance to pull that out in the end too. Look for New England to head into San Diego and win by a TD. Their D is playing very well and offensively, Brady and Co. will prove too much for the Chargers.

3. Denver Broncos (-10) vs. Buf – Mile High is a very difficult place to play and it won’t be any easier for a Kyle Orton led team.

4. Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) vs. Mia – See money line bet.

Rounding Things Out

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) vs. Pit – The Steelers struggle on the road and are catching Cincinnati as they get healthy on D.

New Orleans Saints (-10) vs. Car – Brees and Co. will run it up on their division foe.

Detroit Lions (-10) vs. TB – The Lions have been very tough at home.

Money Line Bet

Baltimore Ravens (+125) vs. Mia – The Fins come off a short week in which they pulled out an underwhelming win over the Jets. They catch a break with DT Haloti Ngata out but the Ravens match up well against Miami and will eek out the close win.

Must Start

San Francisco,  Denver and Green Bay

Tier 1

Houston Texans vs. Jax – JJ Watt and Co. will force 3+ turnovers.

Detroit Lions vs. TB – Josh McCown is a turnover waiting to happen.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pit – The Steelers are a very different road team. The Bengals are getting healthy defensively.

Minnesota Vikings vs. NYJ – Minnesota welcomes the sight of QB Geno Smith.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Cle – The Colts D is a better play if QB Manziel starts.

Tier 2

Seattle Seahawks vs. Phi – The Seahawks will limit Sanchez’s effectiveness and force multiple TDs.

New England Patriots vs. SD – New England’s D will clamp down on Rivers and Co. Very tough to pass on this unit.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Sea – The attacking Eagles D will keep the Seahawks to under 17 points.

Bust

Buffalo Bills vs. Den – It’s tough on any defense to perform well in Denver.

Fantasy Sleeper

New Orleans Saints vs. Car – The Saints D put the clamps on Newton and Co. in Carolina and the Panthers come into this in no better shape.

Top Pick

1. Baltimore Ravens (-6) vs. SD – Baltimore is a very difficult place to play after Thanksgiving.

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2. Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) vs. TB – The Bengals defense is getting healthier and they’ve put the clamps down on the Saints and Texans respectively. They’ll do so again against a reeling Bucs unit.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5) vs. NO – The Saints have lost three in a row (all at home) and are an average outdoor team.

4. New England Patriots (+3) vs. GB – See money line bet.

Rounding Things Out

Denver Broncos (-2) vs. KC – Last week’s loss against the Raiders for the Chiefs was a trap game, but they’re missing the requisite firepower to knock off the Broncos.

Atlanta Falcons (+2) vs. Arz – The Cardinals have gotten everything out of its talent and are trying to win with QB Drew Stanton the rest of the way. This will be a tougher game than many realize.

Oakland Raiders (+7) vs. Stl. – The Rams D has stepped up considerably but there are still major issues on offense. Look for Oakland to keep this close throughout.

Money Line Bet

New England Patriots (+140) vs. GB – The Packers have whipped opponents recently at home, putting up 50+ respectively against the Eagles and Bears. The Patriots are an interesting team because they can beat opponents multiple ways and their D is set up to stop the pass. Look for a close game which New England pulls out.

Must Start

Seattle, Kansas City and San Francisco

Tier 1

Buffalo Bills vs. NYJ – The Jets are not much better with Vick behind center.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jax – Indy will blitz the Jags into a few turnovers.

San Diego Chargers vs. Stl – Shaun Hill will find the going tough at San Diego.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Ten – Look for Philly to blitz the Titans into 2-3 turnovers.

New England Patriots vs. Det – The Patriots are still a low No. 1 facing a tough O at home.

Tier 2

Arizona Cardinals vs. Sea – They’ll force Russell Wilson into a few turnovers.

Green Bay Packers vs. Min – The Packers are rolling at home. This one they take on the road.

Bust

Detroit Lions vs. NE – This Lions team is a tough unit each week, but New England is on a roll and playing at home.

Fantasy Sleeper

St. Louis Rams vs. SD – The Rams recent resurgence is not a fluke. They’re finally buying into the system and will get after Rivers.

Must Start

Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski and Julius Thomas

Tier 1

Antonio Gates vs. Oak – Look for Gates to find the end zone against his rival on Sunday.

Greg Olsen vs. Atl – He’s Newton’s safest option at this point. Will top 90 yards and find the end zone.

Martellus Bennett vs. Min – The Bears are struggling. Look for Cutler to get his TE involved with shorter throws.

Zac Ertz vs. GB – Sanchez looks for his TEs more than Foles did.

Dwayne Allen vs. NE – Look for Luck to target his TEs as the Pats CBs will play the receivers close.

Tier 2

Larry Donnell vs. SF – Donnell is a low No. 1 this week.

Travis Kelce vs Sea – The Seahawks haven’t stopped TEs as well in 2014. Kelce will bounce back from his poor effort a week ago.

Charles Clay vs. Buf – Clay has been inconsistent. He’ll top 10 FFL points on TNF.

Jordan Reed vs. TB – Expect Reed to get back on track in RGIII’s 2nd start.

Jared Cook vs. Den – The Broncos have consistently struggled covering the TE postion.

Bust

Vernon Davis vs. NYG – Something is not right here.

Fantasy Sleeper

Mychael Rivera vs. SD – Rivera has come out of nowhere to become a viable fantasy option. He’ll top 12 FFL points in standard leagues.

Top pick

1. New England Patriots vs. NYJ – The NFL scheduling gods didn’t do the Jets any favors with their hellacious schedule to start the season. 1-5 will become 1-6 when they head to Foxboro tonight. The defense is trying to give NYJ a chance to win but the offense is non-existent.

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2. Cleveland Browns vs. Jax – The Jaguars made it interesting against the Titans but ultimately lost. The Browns are playing good football and will roll again here.

3. Buffalo Bills vs. Min – The Vikings are lacking in talent and bringing along a rookie QB. The Bills feature a strong defense whereas the offense does just enough to win a few games. This is one of them.

Seattle Seahawks, Denver Broncos, New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers

Tier 1

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Ten – The Bengals are stout at home.

Houston Texans vs. NYG – New York’s options on offense are about nil. JJ Watt should have a field day.

Miami Dolphins vs. KC – They are a different team at home.

St. Louis Rams vs. Dal – Expect the D to dial up pressure against Romo and Co.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arz – They look even better if Carson Palmer can’t go.

Tier 2

Cleveland Browns vs. Bal – They’ve had success at home vs. the Ravens.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cle – Will enter on 10 days rest and coming off a solid performance.

Buffalo Bills vs. SD – The Bills D is tough at home.

Bust

Arizona Cardinals vs. SF – The 49ers will get back to their style of play this week. They’ll overpower Arizona’s injury riddled D.

Fantasy Sleeper

San Diego Chargers vs. Buf – This D can be sneaky good and force QB EJ Manuel into errors.

]]> https://profootball101.com/2014/09/17/2014-fantasy-football-dst-rankings-week-3/feed/ 0 https://profootball101.com/2014/09/12/2014-nfl-picks-week-2/ https://profootball101.com/2014/09/12/2014-nfl-picks-week-2/#comments Fri, 12 Sep 2014 21:54:54 +0000 admin https://profootball101.com/?p=12243

Top Pick

1. Tennessee Titans (-3.5) vs. Dal – The Cowboys D makes them a liability in any contest. They’ll put up points in this one but it will not be enough. Look for Tennessee to score early and often and pull away with the 10 point victory late.

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2. New England Patriots (-3) vs. Min – The Vikings played great in Week 1, but don’t expect a repeat performance in their home opener. The Patriots were embarrassed in the 2nd half against Miami and will not fall to 0-2. Look for a convincing win which easily covers the point spread.

3. Green Bay Packers (-9) vs. NY Jets – The Jets undermanned secondary will lead to their undoing (amongst other things) this week. The Packers D will force Geno Smith into turnovers and look for Green Bay to win going away.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) vs. Was – See money line bet.

Rounding Things Out

Denver Broncos (-12) vs. KC – The Broncos will bury the reeling Chiefs at home.

San Diego Chargers (+6) vs. Sea – Expect San Diego to keep things close before falling short.

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) vs. Atl – The Bengals are the more complete team and their defense will limit the Falcons offensive firepower.

Money Line Bet

Jacksonville Jaguars (+210) vs. Was – The Skins are in disarray and really trying to find themselves offensively. They did not have a good showing in Houston. Jacksonville is a better team than a year ago and sneaky. Look for them to steal a win in the Skins home opener which adds to the current questions surrounding RGIII.

1. New England Patriots (+2.5) vs. Den – See money line bet.

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2. San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) vs. Was – The 49ers passing game has been horrific, but its running game and defense will be more than enough to pull out an easy win vs. the Redskins. Washington is self destructing in RGIII’s 2nd year and Mike Shanahan is losing control of his team.

3. Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) vs. NYJ – This is the week the Jets typically play well. However, Baltimore is a VERY tough place for opposing QBs in general, and the Ravens D is salivating at the sight of rookie Geno Smith.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (+10) vs. Hou – Houston should not be favored by 10 over anyone. Something is definitely missing from this year’s team.

Rounding things out

St Louis Rams (-1) vs. Chi – The Bears are still severely depleted on the defensive side of the ball and face a fresh Rams team. Look for the Rams to cover the negligible point spread and win by a FG.

Miami Dolphins (+4.5) vs. Car – The Panthers are the superior team but they could experience a letdown after two emotional wins against the 49ers and Patriots.

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) vs. Ind – The Colts have managed to go 2-1 since the loss of WR Reggie Wayne. However, those wins came against bad teams and the loss of Wayne has been noticeable to Luck and the passing game. The Cards are a good team – especially at home, and will win by a TD.

Money Line Bet

New England Patriots (+110) vs. Den – These teams are fairly identical offensively now that Tom Brady has his weapons back. Neither team is particularly dominant on the defensive side of the ball although expect Bill Belichick to have a few special wrinkles for Peyton as he’s had over the course of their respective careers. Weather should be an issue so look for the home team to win in a close one.