It’s Week 5 of the NFL suicide pool.

1. New York Giants vs. Seattle Seahawks – The Giants have won three straight and are coming off an emotional last minute win in Arizona. The Seahawks are 1-3 and must travel east for this one.

West coast teams rarely fare well at the 1pm EDT start time…

But that little tid bit aside, New York is a much better team and will win this going away. Eli and the passing are clicking, and the running game should find its footing against a soft D. Look for a 27-10 win for the Giants.

This is the best suicide pool pick of the week.

Next

2. Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons – The Packers are going to lose, but it’s not going to be this week. Aaron Rodgers is playing on another level and has his full complement of skill players to work with.

The Packers D is a little banged up in the secondary, but the Falcons don’t have the firepower nor sheer talent to stay with them.

Look for the defending champs to exert their will with a convincing win on Sunday Night.

3. Minnesota Vikings vs. Arizona Cardinals – Is 0-5 really in the cards for the Vikings? We don’t think so. Arizona doesn’t travel very well and will be facing a Vikings team that could easily be 4-0 rather than 0-4.

Look for the Vikings to figure it out this week and notch their 1st win of the season.

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

Must Start

1. Green Bay Packers vs. Den – The Packers D will regain its form with Denver coming to town.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Ind – The Colts are running out of answers at QB quickly. Monday Night could get ugly.

3. Baltimore Ravens vs. NYJ – New York has no running game and Sanchez is turnover prone.

4. New Orleans Saints vs. JAX – QB Blaine Gabbert will see plenty of blitzes from the Saints this week.

Next

New York Giants vs. ARZ – Will look to build off of the momentum from their win at Philly.

San Diego Chargers vs. Mia – The Dolphins offense is pathetic. Period.

Washington Redskins vs. Stl – The Rams offense has made every opponent a quality fantasy football D/ST play in 2011.

The Rest

Buffalo Bills vs. Cin – Rookie QB Andy Dalton continues to struggle for the Bengals.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. SF – The Eagles D is overrated, but QB Alex Smith keeps them as a starting fantasy defense this week.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Sea – Things could get pretty bad for Tavaris Jackson and Co. in Week 4. The Falcons are starting to create turnovers.

Chicago Bears vs. Car – Expect Cam Newton’s struggles from a week ago to continue as he heads back on the road.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Phi – This unit has surprised thus far. The Eagles are a high risk high reward offense, which comes with turnovers.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Hou – We think the Steelers took the Colts lightly which led to the close final score. Expect a stronger performance here.

Houston Texans vs. Pit – Ben Roethlisberger is a turnover machine in 2011.

Minnesota Vikings vs. KC – The Chiefs offense is non-existent. Look for the Vikings,  who haven’t been bad in 2011, to pounce.

Detroit Lions vs. Dal – Tony Romo is still hurting and the Cowboys offense had all sorts of trouble on Monday Night without WR Miles Austin in the lineup. He’s out again this week.

Fantasy Sleeper

Cleveland Browns vs. TEN – The Titans suffered a HUGE blow with the loss of WR Kenny Britt to a torn ACL. The Browns will load the box heavy to stop Chris Johnson and are a solid fantasy sleeper in Week 4

1. Pittsburgh Steelers – This is an excellent matchup even sans S Troy Polamalu.

2. Philadelphia Eagles - The banged up Eagles defense get a gift in the form of the Minnesota Vikings.

3. Baltimore Ravens - Expect Ray Lewis and Co. to shut down the Browns this week.

4. Kansas City Chiefs - We’ll take our chances with the Chiefs playing at home with a chance to clinch a Division crown.

Next In Line

New York Giants - Look for New York to atone for last Sunday’s collapse.

St. Louis Rams - The Niners offense is horrible.

Chicago Bears – This is a home game against a shaky young QB.

Rounding Out the List

New England Patriots - Sunday’s effort vs. the Packers was an aberration. Look for a better showing here.

Jacksonville Jaguars – Rex Grossman is Washington’s QB. No more needs to be said.

Dallas Cowboys - The Cardinals make every D/ST look good.

Green Bay Packers - The Giants have been turnover prone this year.

New York Jets - Their blitzing scheme could force Jay Cutler into mistakes.

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Even with all the injuries they’ve sustained, this is still a strong matchup against a poor Seahawks offense… especially one on the road. Look for Tampa to force multiple turnovers and win a close game. They’re a strong fantasy sleeper in the Championship Round.

Green Bay Packers: 4-3

The Packers skill positions on offense will be high on everyone’s fantasy football draft board. The unit put up points in droves a year ago and should be a force once again. Aaron Rodgers is an elite QB and the team addressed – and upgraded – one of the few areas of weakness in 2009, the offensive line.

The defense significantly improved under DC Dom Capers and will be an attacking unit once again. DE Johnny Jolley’s suspension will hurt from a personnel standpoint, but there’s more than enough talent to be one of the better units in the NFL.

Minnesota Vikings: 7-5

An ill fated last second pass by Brett Favre in the NFC Championship Game cost the Vikings a chance to advance and probably win the Super Bowl. Entering 2010, Favre is still playing the “I might retire game,” but he’ll be back. The offense is littered with talent across the board and this is one of the few organizations where the talent can overcome the mediocrity of its head coach (Brad Childress).

On defense, Leslie Frazier possesses a keen defensive mind and has the players necessary to run his style of defense. With the probably return of MLB EJ Henderson, who was lost to a bad knee injury late in the season, expect this team to remain one of the elite.

Chicago Bears: 16-5

The Bears were busy in the offseason. In Free Agency, they landed prize DE Julius Peppers, and they added two new coordinators to the coaching staff: OC Mike Martz and DC Rod Marinelli. On offense, the Bears have some talent. The biggest issue will be whether the offensive line can pass block for QB Jay Cutler and open up holes for RB Matt Forte, who proved to be a bust in 2009.

QB Jay Cutler’s penchant for making reckless throws could be on full display if OC Mike Martz, known for exposing his QBs to opposing pass rushes, doesn’t tighten up his pass blocking schemes.  The defense should be a competitive unit this year but Rod Marinelli has never called plays during a game, so it remains to be seen how effective he will be.

Detroit Lions: 15-1

Things are slowly getting better in Detroit, but not yet to the point of competing for anything above 3rd place. And even that’s probably a tall order at this point. On offense, QB Matt Stafford will improve in year two and he has plenty to work with at the skill positions, starting with superstar WR Calvin Johnson.

The offensive line is still the biggest concern on offense. The defensive picture is less certain but 1st round selection DT Ndamukong Suh provides hope. 4-6 wins appears to be this team’s ceiling in 2010.

Pro Football 101 Betting Strategy:

In a move which goes somewhat against the grain, we’re placing our football bet on the Minnesota Vikings at 7 – 5, rather than the favored Green Bay Packers. The main reason is the Packers opponents. The 2nd place schedule they must play is in our minds more difficult than the 1st. The Ravens, Niners and Falcons are all going to be tougher in 2010 than the Bengals, Saints and Cardinals.  And a 140 percent return on your money for the defending NFC North Champs is not too shabby.

Johnson’s stock skyrocketed in his 2nd year and he rushed for over 2,000 yards and scored 16 total TDs.

He was also the top fantasy running back with 327 points by a wide margin.

One of the things we learned about the speedy back was that aside from his ability to take it the distance, he showed surprising toughness for his size by running inside and picked up plenty of yards after contact.

This enhanced his value even further as it kept LenDale White, primarily a short yardage specialist, on the bench.

Adrian Peterson was expected to be the 2,000 yard guy in 2009 – not Johnson – but while his year began with a bang, it finished with a fizzle.

Midway through the season, the supremely talented runner rediscovered the Tiki-itus which plagued him in ’08 and his fumbles made him as much a liability as an asset over the last seven weeks of the season.

Now, some of his drop off in numbers can of course be blamed on Brett Favre’s career year, but Brad Childress leaned more on the passing game than running game down the final stretch of the season… and a lot of that was due to the fumbles.

Overall he still came in 2nd with 269 fantasy points.

So who will be the top fantasy RB in 2010?

The answer is easy: Chris Johnson.

He’s the main offensive weapon for the Tennessee Titans and aside from being the most electric runner in the game, provides great value as a receiver out of the backfield.

Another key to his success is he holds onto the ball.

The Titans offensive line is a strength and the AFC South is hardly littered with top tier run defenses; The Colts, Texans and Jaguars can – and will – be run on.

Look for Johnson to top 1,750 rushing yards and score between 14-17 TDs.

Peterson on the other hand, while certainly talented enough to match or top those numbers, will have to contend with a host of talented skill players (WR Sidney Rice, WR Percy Harvin, etc) who will see the ball go their way, but also fumbles, and in fantasy football, 2 points in the other direction (per fumble) can be enough to drop you to No. 2.

Either way, these two players are coming off the board one and two, but Johnson’s the guy at one and his production will certainly justify the selection.

Ever since the Jets cut Brett Favre loose last week, rumors have been swirling that the future HOF QB might be contemplating another comeback.

Of course, his initial reaction to those rumors was that this time he was finished, that his desire to play football was no longer there.

And can you really blame him based on how the 2008 season ended?

After leading the Jets to an AFC East best 8-3 mark, and being prematurely hyped for the Super Bowl by the New York and National Media, they lost four of their final five games to miss out on the playoffs.

And he was beat up in the process.

So he told GM Mike Tannenbaum following their season ending defeat to the Dolphins that it was over.

And in turn, the Jets traded up for the right to draft QB Mark Sanchez out of USC and released Favre from their roster, thus avoiding a salary cap hit in 2009.

A day after this took place, and you can decide for yourself whether it was mere coincidence or not, Vikings’ brass was on a plane down to Mississippi to meet with No. 4.

The Favre camp once again reiterated that it was nothing more than a conversation.

But was it? Is a potential comeback in the works? I wouldn’t bet against it.

One thing we can be certain of is the fact that Favre was not happy with the treatment he received from the Packers’ organization and GM Ted Thompson after his initial comeback attempt.

But Thompson can’t be blamed for how he handled the situation. His first responsibility is to the organization, not the aging QB trying to hold the franchise hostage.

So after Favre announced his retirement following the 2007-08 season – and said it was final, Thompson decided to move on and make Aaron Rodgers, who had been waiting in the wings for three seasons, the starting QB.

And once he made that commitment, he wasn’t going back on his word.

Otherwise Rodgers, a former first round pick, would’ve bolted Green Bay at first opportunity after being relegated to the bench in his first four years in the NFL.

So when Favre decided to make his first comeback, he was informed he’d be welcomed back…but as a backup.

Favre countered by asking for an outright release. Apparently, after being treated as royalty over his 15-year tenure in Green Bay, he thought he’d parlay that “royalty” into a no strings attached release allowing him to sign with whomever he chose.

But Thompson wasn’t going to let Favre, who clearly had something left in the tank, walk for free and end up in…I don’t know, Chicago or Minnesota.

He did agree however to move the aging QB.

And he even asked for a list of his top choices—outside of the division of course.

Tampa Bay was No. 1, while the Jets didn’t make his fave five.

30 minutes later he was a member of the New York Jets. And as a part of the trade, the Packers smartly inserted the “poison pill” into the deal; if the Jets decided to ship him to the Vikings, they’d have been obligated to send three 1st round picks to Green Bay.

But now the circumstances have changed.

Should he choose, he’s free to sign with the Vikings.

Why would he even want to at this point? Because reports are now coming out that he loathes Green Bay, and because he probably would like nothing more than to stick it to his former franchise, and in particular, GM Ted Thompson, at a minimum twice in 2009.

And the move would make a lot of sense.

Minnesota’s only a QB away from raising its ceiling to more than a Wild Card Playoff game.

They’ve already got an excellent supporting cast assembled: the great Adrian Peterson, a big, solid, offensive line, a highly touted first round pick in Percy Harvin to go with burner WR Bernard Berrian, and an aggressive, play making  defense.

And there’s no doubt that Favre has already wrapped his mind around all of this.

So while he continues to say – and will continue into the summer – that this time his retirement’s for real, it’s no different than when former CEO Dick Fuld promised that Lehman Brothers was not another Bear Stearns in the wake of the company’s implosion last March.

The writing is on the wall.

See you in Minnesota, Brett.

To quickly recap the receivers taken, at the top we had the reach of the decade, WR Darrius Hayward-Bey, to Oakland, followed by who many considered to be the best receiver prospect in the Draft, WR Michael Crabtree to San Francisco.

After that went WR Jeremy Maclin to Philadelphia, then WR Percy Harvin to Minnesota, WR Hakeem Nicks to the New York (Giants) and WR Kenny Britt to the Tennessee.

Heyward-Bey and Crabtree can already be disqualified based on their current offensive situations; Britt’s not going to a pass oriented offense and while Nicks will have a chance to be productive, the 2009 Giants will place a heavy emphasis on running the football.

So that leaves us with two: Jeremy Maclin and Percy Harvin.

While Maclin will certainly be in the more ideal situation—Philly passes the ball over 60% of the time and McNabb’s an established, Pro Bowl QB—he’ll start out as the third receiver at best (fourth passing option after Westbrook) and that’s why in the end, I see Harvin being the top fantasy producer.

Coach Childress will utilize his versatility and game breaking ability similar to how Urban Meyer did at Florida, by lining him up all over the field.

And since, unlike in Florida, where he was the number one focus of opposing defenses, he’ll be number two in Minnesota after the great RB Adrian Peterson. There will be many one-on-one match-ups that even Sage Rosenfels will be able to capitalize on.

While I expect Harvin to run his fair share of deep routes, that’ll mostly be Bernard Berrian’s job.

Instead, I think his real impact will come from short passes and slant patterns which will allow him to use his open field running ability—and blazing speed—to compile a lot of yards plus a few TDs.

He’ll also have additional opportunities to make things happen out of the backfield and on end-arounds. And don’t be surprised to see a pitch to Peterson who runs lateral and tosses it down field to a streaking Harvin, who got behind the defense after they were fooled into thinking it was a run.

The learning curve for rookie wide receivers is usually steep, outside of Randy Moss, who was a player that comes along once in a generation anyway, and for that reason, relying on one to impact your fantasy team is usually not wise.

But Harvin’s versatility should provide him ample opportunities from both the running back and receiver position, and that type of double threat makes him always worthy of consideration at your flex position.

Now we all know the reason he dropped in the NFL Draft—the failed drug test at the combine and concerns over his ability to stay out of trouble—and from all reports coming out from his high school and college days, that’s a big concern. But should he be able to remain focused on football and keep clean, he will be your top fantasy producer of all the round one receivers taken in the 2009 NFL Draft.

The No. 2 pick in most fantasy drafts (not mine, where a guy unfortunately took Tom Brady) was Minnesota Vikings star RB Adrian Peterson.

After a sensational rookie season, which saw the runner out of Oklahoma eclipse the 200-yard plateau two times—one being an NFL single game record 296 yards vs. the San Diego Chargers—there was a dilemma amongst many fantasy gurus over who would be the top pick: Tomlinson or Peterson.

Well, Tomlinson won 99 out of 100 times, but as we saw, that decision turned out to be 100 percent incorrect.

2008 Recap

Expectations for AD (All-Day) coming into the 2008 season were through the roof.

2,000 yards was mentioned on more than a few occasions by media experts/fantasy gurus who were predicting the sophomore’s projected yardage total.

And while we thought he’d have a stellar season at the very least, we were cautious of those lofty expectations for one reason: TJ, which later became GF. What do those initials stand for? Tavaris Jackson and Gus Frerotte.

When you have QBs like Jackson and Frerotte, there’s a good chance you’re going to see eight and nine-man fronts.

Why? Because there’s not a defense in the league that is scared of their ability to beat them through the air. And that is what happened. Defenses consistently loaded the box to stop the run as they were only focused on stopping number 28.

But thanks to a rare combination of speed, power, and elusiveness, Peterson still managed to lead the NFL in rushing with 1,760 yards and 10 TDs. While the numbers are solid, they could have been much better.

Peterson developed a case of fumble-itus—otherwise known as Tiki Barber syndrome—late in the season.

For whatever reason, he put the ball on the ground five times, often disrupting potential scoring drives. And usually after the fumble, even if the Vikings managed to recover it, they’d put in the more sure-handed RB Chester Taylor, which directly affected Peterson’s scoring opportunities.

2009 Outlook

The potential for a 2,000 yard, 15 TD season is very real. Aside from the possible loss of C Matt Birk, the offensive line should return intact and possibly even see upgrades via the NFL draft or free agency.

On the outside, the Vikings now possess some threats (WRs Berrian, Rice, Wade and TE Schiancoe) to take pressure off of the running game. But the true wild card is who lines up at the QB position.

We know it will not be Tavaris Jackson.

After his anemic effort in the playoff game vs. the Eagles, where he looked like a deer caught in the headlights, head coach Brad Childress knows that his job security is directly tied to how his QB plays, so he can not afford to bet the ranch on Jackson at this point.

And Frerotte was nothing more than a fill-in—so keep your eyes on free agency to see which QB they can attract in ’09.

If they are able to land someone like McNabb, Garcia, or anyone that is a competent NFL QB—watch out.

Defenses will then have to play more honestly (only keep seven in the box), and once Peterson hits the hole and is into the secondary, he’s gone—there isn’t a safety or CB in the league that can catch him in the open field.

Best Bets

1. Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins. When these two teams met earlier in the season, the Ravens handed the Dolphins a 27-13 loss at home; not much has changed from that point to lead me to believe that this outcome will be any different.

The Dolphins’ defense will contain Flacco and Co. and keep this score in reach, but I don’t see Pennington and his offensive teammates as being able to muster much of anything vs. this stellar Baltimore defense. And that will be the difference in this one.

Next in Line

2. Indianapolis Colts (-1) vs. San Diego Chargers. The last time these two teams played, in a game that Indy won 23-20, the Colts were three-point underdogs; this time, they’re the favorites. Both offenses will do a lot of damage in what should be a high-scoring affair, but in the end, look for the Colts, and Vinatieri in particular, to send Indianapolis to the second round of the NFL playoffs.

We like Dungy to get the better of Turner in this one and that (coaching) should be the deciding factor in this very close game.

3. Atlanta Falcons (-2) vs. Arizona Cardinals. This game is very difficult to pick. Do you go with the Falcons, who are being led by a rookie QB that appears to have hit the rookie wall over the past four weeks, or do you go with the home team, which has been destroyed by every playoff team they’ve faced in the past month?

Oh the dilemma…

We’re going to stick with the team that can play defense and run the ball and that’s why we’re picking the Falcons to win a close won on the road in the early Saturday matchup.

4. Minnesota Vikings (+3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles. See money line analysis below.

Money Line

1. Minnesota Vikings (+150) vs. Philadelphia Eagles. If Andy Reid comes out and calls an excellent game plan (e.g. a balanced offensive attack), Philly will win. But we’re not so sure that that will be the case. The first thing to look for will be if the Eagles have a let down emotionally after a huge win over their division rivals, the Dallas Cowboys. It’s sometimes difficult to transfer this over.

Next will be the running game. Will Reid abandon it? If DT Pat Williams is back this weekend, as he says he’ll be, we think he’ll have no choice but to do this. With the Williams’ twins in the middle, the Vikings are as difficult a team to run as anyone in the NFL.

And if this happens, look for Minnesota to put the ball in McNabb’s hands to beat them, and in that case, we like the Vikings chances. Offensively, Minnesota will pound the ball with Peterson and Taylor and take their shots in the passing game when the opportunities present themselves.

But against a Jim Johnson-led defense, there won’t be too many, so Jackson will have to execute when they occur. In what will be a close, low-scoring game, look for the Vikings to pull off the slim upset at home and advance to round two.

When the 9-6-1 Philadelphia Eagles head into Minnesota to take on the 10-6 Vikings, it’ll wrap up a full weekend of Wild Card football.

Both teams took different routes to get here: Minnesota won a war of attrition in the NFC North and was really the last man standing, while Philly, after a horrible blowout to Baltimore and tie to the Bengals, rallied to win four if its final five games and earn its way into the playoffs. And in the process, bury its hated rivals, the Dallas Cowboys, 44-6 on the final Sunday of the NFL regular season.

This game actually is one of the more intriguing ones of the weekend and offers quite a few questions: can Reid and Philly keep that momentum gained from last week’s thrashing of the Cowboys in this one; will Childress’ knowledge of the Eagles’ system (from his time as offensive coordinator) be an advantage; will Reid stick with the running game, etc?

Here’s how we see this game playing out.

When Philly has the ball, they need to commit to the running game. As seen innumerable times this season, when the ball is placed into McNabb’s hands, and the pass to run ratio is 60 to 40 or greater, Philly doesn’t win. They don’t have the receivers to play this style of game. And Brian Westbrook is one of the premier running backs (all around threats) in the NFL, so it’s not wise to limit his touches.

The only problem this Sunday is with the expected return of DT Pat Williams, the Vikings are a formidable defense to run against. They get an excellent push against offensive lines and limit the cut back running lanes. So don’t expect Westbrook to do too much on the ground but Philly can not forget about this.

When it comes time to pass, it’ll be wise to use Westbrook a lot out of the backfield: on screens and lining him up as a receiver. He presents mismatches for opposing LBs and safeties and has the hands of a receiver. The Vikings will probably match CB Antoine Winfield against the rookie, DeSean Jackson, so look for Jackson to be kept in check. Philly will need the quick passing game – slants and crossing patterns – to enjoy success against this defense.

When Minnesota has the ball, look for them to run, run and run. If there’s one area of weakness on this Eagles’ defense, it’s stopping the run. And the Vikings feature the most explosive player in the game at that position: Adrian Peterson. After amassing over 1,700 yards on the ground this season, his biggest issue of late has been holding onto the ball; he’s developed a little Tiki-itus (fumbles) and this has really hurt his team the past two weeks, but he can break one at any moment. They also have RB Chester Taylor, who’s a solid runner in his own right.

When they look to pass, look for a lot of short passes because we expect the Eagles to bring a lot of pressure, so getting the ball out early is crucial. And this should keep TE Visanthe Schiancoe, Jackson’s new favorite target, busy all afternoon. Schiancoe had seven catches for 136 yards and two TDs vs. the Falcons two weeks ago and has really developed a rapport with the young QB.

And this will be the best way to attack Philly because their outside CBs are playing extremely well right now. But the flip side of Philly’s aggressive defensive style, is that there are opportunities to go up top off the play action pass, and that’s where WR Bernard Berrian comes into play. When these opportunities present themselves, the Vikings will need to execute.

So as we put an end to Wild Card weekend, look for Minnesota to rally around their home crowd and pull out the closest of victories: 20 – 17 or 24 – 20. A big stat to remember is that Minnesota, while not an overly impressive team, is 6-2 at home, while Philly, who needed a furious rally to even be here, was only 3-4-1 on the road.

Now, if Jackson commits a few stupid turnovers and Philly’s defense is relentless, then we can easily see the Eagles advancing, but we think he’ll be a little smarter with the ball on Sunday. And we’re not convinced that McNabb will be able to carry this offense when the running game isn’t there, just like he wasn’t able to do in Washington two weeks ago.

So look for the Vikings to advance to the second round and play the Panthers down in Carolina, while Philadelphia, who made a heck of run to even be here, will fall short of its overall goals for the season and have numerous off-season personnel questions to deal with, starting with Reid and McNabb, and working its way down to Dawkins and a few other key veteran players.