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It’s now onto Week 9 of your NFL suicide pool.

1. Oakland Raiders vs. Denver Broncos – You can pretty much insert any team playing Tebow from here on out. The Dolphins game was an incorrect measuring stick because Miami had something to play for: Andrew Luck.

Not so with the Raiders who are playing for an AFC West title. Expect the Raiders D to make Tebow lo0k painfully silly through three quarters once again while their offense puts 24-27 on the board.

This is the top suicide pool pick of the week.

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2. Atlanta Falcons vs. Indianapolis Colts – The Colts season is over and it’s showing in their play. They lost by 55 two weeks ago and Tennessee made them look foolish in Week 8.

The Falcons are coming off a bye week and have had a chance to heal some players up. Look for a close game until the half before Matt Ryan and Co. pull away late to win by double digits.

3. San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Redskins – The current betting line is only -3.5 for San Francisco. That seems low… even in Washington. Regardless, expect the 49ers to play stout D and muscle their way to a win by a TD.

The Redskins season is spinning out of control at an alarming rate.

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It’s onto Week 4 of the NFL suicide pool.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts – The Colts season is over. They know it, and so does the rest of the league. QB Peyton Manning‘s loss was far too big to overcome.

They’ve remained competitive the past two games because they’ve been played at home, but this is on the road.

Expect the 2-1 Bucs to bury Indy on Monday Night. We expect a final score somewhere in the vicinity of 30-7 or 30-10.

The is the best suicide pool pick on the board.

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2. Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks – The Seahawks shouldn’t get too excited after their 13-10 win over the Arizona Cardinals, which we picked for our money line bet in Week 3.

The Falcons aren’t the Cardinals.

In fact, the only thing Seattle has going for it is the game will be played in the Pacific Northwest, which is a difficult trip for many teams to make.

Expect Matt Ryan and Co. to have their way with a soft D and control the clock. Defensively, Atlanta will force Tavaris Jackson into a few errors which allow the Falcons to pull away to an easy win.

3. Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers – Cam Newton came back to reality in Week 3 after lighting up both the Cardinals and Packers the 1st two weeks. We expect more growing pains as he leads his team into Chicago.

Look for Julius Peppers and Co. to contain Newton and force him into costly mistakes. And for the Bears to do enough offensively to pull out the 10 point win.

1. Phillip Rivers - They’re facing the Niners secondary on Thursday Night. Expect Rivers to light it up.

2. Peyton Manning - The Jags are vulnerable to the passing game.

3. Tom Brady – Is anyone hotter in the league? Nope.

4. Matt Schaub - The Titans have thrown in the towel. Schaub will light up this secondary.

Next in Line

Drew Brees - Look for him to air it out against the Ravens D.

Joe Flacco – Look for Flacco and Co. to find a lot of success through the air.

Matt Ryan - He’s good for 2 TDs per game.

Rounding Out the List

Michael Vick - He’ll make a few big plays vs. the Giants D. Could be with his legs.

Eli Manning - He’s got his toys back (Nicks, Smith). Look for a two TD game vs. the Eagles.

Josh Freeman - The Lions secondary is not their strong point.

Jon Kitna - Expect the vet to toss for over 225 yards and 2 TDs.

Matt Hasselback - Look for Hasselback to get some receivers back and throw for a few TDs.

David Garrard -This could be a passing affair. Look for Garrard to have a solid game.

Matt Cassel - If he’s back, he’ll put up solid fantasy numbers.

Aaron Rodgers – Check his status mid-week. If he can go, he’s a must start.

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week

Carson Palmer - The bad news is they’ve lost 10 in a row. The good news is they get the Browns this week and we like Palmer to toss multiple TDs on Sunday. Palmer’s a solid fantasy sleeper this week.

Risers

1. Tony Romo

The emergence of WR Miles Austin last year put Tony Romo back on the fantasy football map and among the elite (he finished 6th in scoring). He finished with over 1,000 yards more than in ’08.  This improvement was due to the emergence of Miles Austin as a bona fide  No.1 receiver which opened up the entire passing game.

He has a new weapon in his arsenal this year in 1st round draft choice WR Dez Bryant. The rookie possesses big-time talent and down field ability. Expect Romo to finish with over 4,500 yards and 35 TDs, and for as good as he was last year, he’ll improve in 2010.

2. Carson Palmer

Christmas came early for Carson Palmer. At the end of last season, it was WR Chad Ochocinco and nobody else. Now he has WR Terrell Owens, WR Antonio Bryant, TE Jermaine Gresham and WR Jordan Shipley to go along with No. 85. LT Andre Smith will be improved in year two as will the entire O-line. Palmer is a legitimate threat for over 3,500 yards and 30 TDs this season.

3. Matt Ryan

Matt Ryan’s numbers declined in 2009 because Michael Turner’s injury made the running game non-existent and defenses were able to key on the passing game. That shouldn’t happen this year. Not only is everyone healthy, but the Falcons face an easier schedule. Expect Ryan to thrive in 2010 and for the 3rd year QB to finish with over 3,500 yards and between 25- 30 TDs.

Fallers

1. Matt Schaub

A career year saw Schaub remain healthy for the first time in his career and pass for 4,770 yards and 29 TDs.  Health is always a concern for the injury prone Schaub and will be again in 2010. The Texans also drafted a running back in the 2nd round because they plan to focus more on running the ball.

Shootouts don’t often lead to wins and Kubiak is aiming for Ws, not fantasy stats. We expect a steep decline in passing yards and TDs and feel his early rankings (as high as No. 4 at QB) on mock draft boards are too high.

2. Phillip Rivers

Rivers eclipsed 4,000 yards and 28 TDs in 2009 in a pass happy Chargers offense. The outlook in 2010 is not as bright. WR Vincent Jackson will likely holdout over the 1st 10 games of the season and LT Marcus McNeill has threatened to do the same. Pro Bowl TE Antonio Gates is still there but the other receivers are unproven. Most of their success came as a result of the attention being paid by secondaries to VJ and Antonio Gates.  As a result, expect Rivers numbers to take a hit.

3. Brett Favre

He’s here for no other reason than it will be impossible to duplicate last season’s success. 4,200 yards, 33 TDs and just 7 INTs was a season for the ages. He’s now another year older (41), the defenses within the division are better, and we expect Minnesota to rely more heavily on the running game in 2010. The Vikings went almost exclusively to the air over the last month of the 2009 season due to Adrian Peterson’s fumbling problems. If those are corrected, then he’ll see increased carries which will hurt Favre’s stats.

Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco were both thrown into the fire from Day One and achieved levels of success rarely seen by rookie QBs.

And they did it different ways.

Flacco was able to follow a script which we’ve seen before; like Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, he was able to ride a dominant defense and solid running game to the AFC Championship Game.

Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron put together a perfect scheme which relied heavily on the run and featured a short, safe passing game. The deep ball was occasionally mixed in to stretch the field and keep defense’s honest.

His goal was to win the time of possession battle and limit the mistakes of his young QB. And the result was an 11-win season.

Ryan’s performance on the other hand was unlike any we’ve seen from a rookie with the exception of Dan Marino’s 1983 campaign.

And it was probably better in that he inherited as dysfunctional a franchise as one could imagine; they were just a year removed from the Michael Vick dog fighting debacle and the abandonment of ship by then head coach, Bobby Petrino.

Marino inherited a Super Bowl team.

The amazing thing about Ryan’s success is that he wasn’t blessed with a great defense—it was above average at best. And while he did have a stellar running game (acquisition of RB Michael Turner from San Diego) to fall back on, his maturity was such that the Falcons were not forced to scale back the offensive game plan for him.

In fact, as the season progressed, they even opened it  up.

Coach’s rarely do this because the position is so cerebral; there’s just so much to know that they’d rather have their young QB focusing on executing the plan than over thinking (see Ryan Leaf).

So since last year’s success created a bull market for QBs in 2009—and raised the bar early on—what can we expect from the top two QBs in this rookie class?

Matt Stafford

The Lions are not paying him $41.7 million guaranteed to sit on the bench. And coming off an 0-16 campaign, there’s going to be a lot of pressure to put him in there from Day One.

But they better be careful because while they can’t lose anymore from a game’s standpoint than they did in 2008, they can lose something much more valuable: his confidence.

And we’ve seen how far reaching—and damaging—the loss of confidence can be with a top pick. In 2002, after being sacked an NFL record 76 times as a rookie, David Carr’s eyes went from where they were supposed to be—down the field and reading the defense—to the pass rush.

Now he’s nothing more than a backup.

So when measuring the variables that might lead to success for a rookie QB, either a strong running game or solid defense, or better yet both, Stafford has neither.

Outside of superstar receiver Calvin Johnson, Detroit has a few solid players at the skill positions surrounding him, but the offensive line and defense are atrocious.

Verdict: The Lions would be wise to get him some experience later on in the season but there’s no reason to play him until at least Week Nine or 10. Three to four wins is this team’s ceiling.

Mark Sanchez

Sanchez actually landed in a much better situation to succeed from Day One. The Jets possess a strong defense, a solid running game, and a big offensive line.

And while they’re lacking some at the receiver position, Rex Ryan will follow the same blueprint with Sanchez as they did in Baltimore last year. You’ll see them run the football heavily with RB Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, and mix in short, safe, manageable passes.

And with an aggressive, attacking defense, forcing turnovers and keeping games close, he’ll have a chance to lead them to 7-9 wins.

In any other division, I’d say the potential was there for more, but there’s at least four losses sitting right there in the AFC East: two to the Patriots, one to the Dolphins, and for whatever reason, the Bills always steal a game vs. Gang Green.

Verdict: With the lack of talent at the QB position currently on the roster, and all other elements in place for Sanchez to succeed, look for him to have his number called from Day One.

And to answer our initial question of whether the rookie QBs in 2009 will have the same impact as 2008?

The answer is a resounding no.

Must Starts:

1. Matt Cassel vs. Buffalo Bills. The Patriots have everything to play and no guarantees they’ll make the playoffs when the day is said and done. If the Dolphins beat the Jets, Miami moves on and New England stays home, so look for an ultra impressive performance from the Patriots, and Cassel in particular. Top fantasy play.

2. Phillip Rivers vs. Denver Broncos. The Chargers can’t wait to repay the Broncos for the win they were cheated out of in week two, thanks to a horrible call by Ed Hochuli. Look for Rivers to remain hot and continue his air assault on Denver.

3. Drew Brees vs. Carolina Panthers. The Saints have only one thing to play for: Brees’ attempt to break Dan Marino’s single season record. And look for him to give it his best shot when the Panthers come to New Orleans this weekend.

4. Aaron Rodgers vs. Detroit Lions. The Lions are this close to perfection, and the entire NFL is ready to celebrate champagne with them. And to make sure they get there, 0-16, Rodgers and his receivers are going to light up this defense on the way to a blow-out.

Sleepers:

1. Matt Schaub vs. Chicago Bears. The Bears can be pass on as Rodgers and his Packers did Monday Night, and it’s important to Houston to end with a winning season. Schaub will come up big on Sunday.

2. Matt Ryan vs. St. Louis Rams. Ryan has a chance, with a Panthers loss, to lead his team to the No. 2 seed in the NFC and a first round bye. Look for he and his receivers—White and Jenkins—to enjoy a lot of success through the air.

Others with favorable match-ups:

1. Jay Cutler vs. San Diego Chargers. The only way Denver can win this football game is by throwing the ball. They have no running game left. Look for Cutler to link up with his talented receiving duo for a big day through the air.

2. Jeff Garcia vs. Oakland Raiders. The Bucs desperately need to win in order to have a chance at the playoffs. Look for Garcia to get them the “W” through the air, and to Antonio Bryant in particular.

3. Chad Pennington vs. New York Jets. How classic is it Pennington has a chance to beat his former team to advance to the playoffs? We think it’s great. Look for a big game from Chad on Sunday against a vulnerable Jets’ secondary.

1. Tony Romo vs. Seattle Seahawks.

Romo came back strong on Sunday with a 341- yard, 3 TD effort against the over-matched San Francisco 49ers. This week, another lowly foe from the NFC West comes to town in the Seattle Seahawks. Look for Romo’s hot hand to continue in this one as Seattle can be attacked through the air, as evidenced by Arizona’s dynamic duo’s (Fizgerald/Boldin) day two weeks ago—337 yards combined.

300+ yards and 2 TDs.

2. Peyton Manning vs Cleveland Browns.

Manning has been on a roll lately and this week he gets Cleveland. Although the Browns are not particularly strong vs. the run, if Colts’ center Jeff Saturday is forced to sit out, it’ll add more pressure to the passing game. And against the Browns’ secondary, we love Peyton’s chance to air it out and post huge numbers. Anyone remember Cutler’s day there a few weeks ago? We do.

300 yards and 2TDs.

3. Chad Pennington vs. St. Louis.

If I say the word laughingstock, what do you associate that with? The Rams’ team. They’ve made every opposing QB over the past month look like an All-Pro, and that includes Shaun Hill of the 49ers. Meanwhile, Pennington is putting together a very nice year in Miami and look for that to continue this week.

250 yards and 2TD.

4. Matt Ryan vs. San Diego.

The understatement of the year is that the Chargers are reeling. Sitting at 4-7, the Fat Lady has almost sung although it may have sung for the defense a long time ago. Manning extended the hot streak by opposing QBs against the Bolts’ pass defense and look for Ryan and his play makers to do it once again.

250 yards and 2TD.

Sleepers:

1. Jeff Garcia vs. New Orleans Saints.

The Saints are a notoriously poor team away from New Orleans. In fact, it’s been sometime since thye’ve won Tampa. Look for Garcia to target his outside play makers this Sunday and to put a few balls into the end zone.

2. Shaun Hill vs. Buffalo Bills.

This is a bit of a shocker, but that’s why it’s the sleeper section. The Bills are banged up in the secondary and Tyler Thigpen just torched them for 200+ yards and 3TDs. The Niners will be playing this one at home and will have plenty of opportunities to go up top. Look for Hill to put up 200 yards and potentially two scores.

Others with favorable match-ups:

1. Kurt Warner vs. Philadelphia Eagles.

It remains to be seen if Philly has mailed in the season, but one thing we’re sure of is Warner and the Cards are still trying to lock down their first NFC West Crown ever. And with the stable of receivers that Arizona has, Warner will always be an attractive fantasy play. Look for him to eclipse the 300-yard mark for the sixth consecutive game and for a few of those balls to end up in the end zone.

2. Brett Favre vs. Denver Broncos.

Favre has raised his play leaps and bounds since incorporating TE Dustin Keller into the passing game. The added time to learn the offensive system in NY has helped too. Look for Favre to continue his hot hand vs. the Broncos as Denver’s defense is highly suspect.

3. Matt Hasselback vs. Dallas Cowboys.

In what should be a high scoring affair, we like Hasselback on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys have already shown that they are susceptible vs the pass and the Seahawks, while demoralized at 2-9, can still make things happen in the passing game.