Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Andrew Luck

Tier 1

Tony Romo vs. NYG – He’ll feast on a Giants D that is depleted and struggling in coverage.

Tom Brady vs. Det – The Lions present a big challenge, but this is in NE and Brady is on fire.

Mark Sanchez vs. Ten – This offense suits him well.

Tier 2

Eli Manning vs. Dal – Look for Manning to top 20 FFL points against the Boys.

Colin Kaepernick vs. Was – He’ll be a threat running as well as passing.

Andy Dalton vs. Hou – Dalton will put up 15-18 FFL points.

Jay Cutler vs. TB – He will probably toss a couple of picks but he’s in line for a big afternoon.

Ryan Tannehill vs. Den – Expect 15-18 FFL points against a tough Broncos D.

Philip Rivers vs. Stl. – Rivers enjoys a solid match up here.

Fantasy Sleeper

Josh McCown vs. Chi – Expect McCown to put on a solid showing against his old compatriots.

Bust

Matt Stafford vs. NE – The Pats secondary is its strength.

1. San Francisco 49ers vs. NYJ – This unit will be angry and Mark Sanchez loves to give gifts to opposing defenses. Expect 4-6 sacks with multiple turnovers and the Jets held to 10 points.

2. Houston Texans vs. Ten – The Texans D will overwhelm the Titans this week. JJ Watts will lead a multi-sack, multi turnover effort.

3. Arizona Cardinals vs. Mia – The surprise fantasy football D/ST of ’12 will post a 20 point fantasy effort vs. the Dolphins.

4. NY Giants vs. Phi – The Eagles have turned the ball over 12 times in three games and Vick doesn’t do a good job protecting the ball. The Giants will get after Vick and sack him 3-5 times with 2-3 turnovers.

Next

Seattle Seahawks vs. Stl. – The Seahawks D/ST will overwhelm the Bradford led offense. The Rams have big problems on the Offensive Line.

Baltimore Ravens vs Cle – Tough to come back on three days rest but Cleveland faces the same prospect and has to travel. The Ravens D will dominate the rookie QB on Thursday Night.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Chi – Cutler does not look comfortable in the pocket. The Cowboys will make him feel less comfortable on Monday Night.

The Rest

Chicago Bears vs. Dal – The Cowboys have big issues on the offensive line. It’s hampering their running game and not giving Romo time to make plays back there.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Car – Tough to find fault with this defense early on. They will force Newton into a few mistakes.

Denver Broncos vs. Oak – John Fox’s crew gets a bit of a break with the Raiders coming in. The fact that Dennis Allen is the former DC in Denver might give Oakland a slight edge… but not enough.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jax – The Bengals gave up a lot of points to Washington but forced multiple turnovers and generated sacks. The Jaguars don’t have RGIII on their offense.

Chicago Bears (-10)

Expect a cold, poor weather day in Chicago, and for Matt Forte and Co. to move the ball up and down the field on Sunday. On the other side of the ball, look for Julius Peppers and the defense to make life miserable for Matt Hasselback all afternoon.

Expect a 27-10 finish.

New England Patriots (-9) vs. New York Jets – The 45-3 outcome was not an aberration, although New England peaked around this time. Teams now have more film to look at and we expect the Jets to make some adjustments on defense, minimizing New England’s effectiveness to an extent. But it will still not be enough. Tom Brady and Co. will put up 28 points on New York.

Defensively, while Mark Sanchez has taken some steps forward since that game, Bill Belichick will break him down and force him into another turnover prone game. Sanchez has struggled mightily in his two career starts in New England.

The game may stay close to the half, but look for the Patriots to pull away and win by double digits to advance to the AFC title game.

While Saturday goes to the underdogs, Sunday is all about the favorites.

Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco were both thrown into the fire from Day One and achieved levels of success rarely seen by rookie QBs.

And they did it different ways.

Flacco was able to follow a script which we’ve seen before; like Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, he was able to ride a dominant defense and solid running game to the AFC Championship Game.

Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron put together a perfect scheme which relied heavily on the run and featured a short, safe passing game. The deep ball was occasionally mixed in to stretch the field and keep defense’s honest.

His goal was to win the time of possession battle and limit the mistakes of his young QB. And the result was an 11-win season.

Ryan’s performance on the other hand was unlike any we’ve seen from a rookie with the exception of Dan Marino’s 1983 campaign.

And it was probably better in that he inherited as dysfunctional a franchise as one could imagine; they were just a year removed from the Michael Vick dog fighting debacle and the abandonment of ship by then head coach, Bobby Petrino.

Marino inherited a Super Bowl team.

The amazing thing about Ryan’s success is that he wasn’t blessed with a great defense—it was above average at best. And while he did have a stellar running game (acquisition of RB Michael Turner from San Diego) to fall back on, his maturity was such that the Falcons were not forced to scale back the offensive game plan for him.

In fact, as the season progressed, they even opened it  up.

Coach’s rarely do this because the position is so cerebral; there’s just so much to know that they’d rather have their young QB focusing on executing the plan than over thinking (see Ryan Leaf).

So since last year’s success created a bull market for QBs in 2009—and raised the bar early on—what can we expect from the top two QBs in this rookie class?

Matt Stafford

The Lions are not paying him $41.7 million guaranteed to sit on the bench. And coming off an 0-16 campaign, there’s going to be a lot of pressure to put him in there from Day One.

But they better be careful because while they can’t lose anymore from a game’s standpoint than they did in 2008, they can lose something much more valuable: his confidence.

And we’ve seen how far reaching—and damaging—the loss of confidence can be with a top pick. In 2002, after being sacked an NFL record 76 times as a rookie, David Carr’s eyes went from where they were supposed to be—down the field and reading the defense—to the pass rush.

Now he’s nothing more than a backup.

So when measuring the variables that might lead to success for a rookie QB, either a strong running game or solid defense, or better yet both, Stafford has neither.

Outside of superstar receiver Calvin Johnson, Detroit has a few solid players at the skill positions surrounding him, but the offensive line and defense are atrocious.

Verdict: The Lions would be wise to get him some experience later on in the season but there’s no reason to play him until at least Week Nine or 10. Three to four wins is this team’s ceiling.

Mark Sanchez

Sanchez actually landed in a much better situation to succeed from Day One. The Jets possess a strong defense, a solid running game, and a big offensive line.

And while they’re lacking some at the receiver position, Rex Ryan will follow the same blueprint with Sanchez as they did in Baltimore last year. You’ll see them run the football heavily with RB Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, and mix in short, safe, manageable passes.

And with an aggressive, attacking defense, forcing turnovers and keeping games close, he’ll have a chance to lead them to 7-9 wins.

In any other division, I’d say the potential was there for more, but there’s at least four losses sitting right there in the AFC East: two to the Patriots, one to the Dolphins, and for whatever reason, the Bills always steal a game vs. Gang Green.

Verdict: With the lack of talent at the QB position currently on the roster, and all other elements in place for Sanchez to succeed, look for him to have his number called from Day One.

And to answer our initial question of whether the rookie QBs in 2009 will have the same impact as 2008?

The answer is a resounding no.

Pro Football Talk is reporting that the Cleveland Browns have narrowed their choices for the fifth pick in the NFL Draft down to USC QB Mark Sanchez and Texas Tech wideout Michael Crabtree.

If it’s really down to these two, let’s analyze how the Browns came to this decision.

Mark Sanchez. The kid is an extremely talented player who only had one year as a starter at USC. In that year, however, he showed a lot of the skills, intangibles, and accuracy you look for in a franchise QB.

While he’s certainly not a can’t miss prospect, there’s a lot to like, and if the Browns bring him along slowly and implement the right system to feature his skill set, he should do well for a long time.

Now, why would the Browns be considering him when they already have QB Derek Anderson and 2007 first round pick, Brady Quinn on the roster?

Anderson had an excellent year in 2007 and was rewarded with a three-year extension.

Unfortunately, 2008 wasn’t as kind to him.

A lot of that had to do with injuries, drops (Braylon), no running game, and a defense that couldn’t stop anyone—a tough predicament for any QB to find himself in.

So once it was apparent that the Browns’ season was going to end in Week 17, Crennel, realizing the pink slip was inevitable, turned the football over to Quinn to see what he could do with it.

The answer, not much.

Just a few games into his tenure and he had a broken hand, which sidelined him for the remainder of the season. So to say that Mangini isn’t exactly enamored with his signal callers and gleaning over Quinn’s potential is an understatement.

A lot of people felt, and still feel, that Quinn is overrated and that’s why he had such a precipitous drop on draft day.

So if they do decide on Sanchez, look for them to have a deal in place for Quinn, something which was rumored last week when reports had the 49ers linked to the former Notre Dame QB.

Then the Browns can give the ball back to Anderson while Sanchez is brought along slowly.

Michael Crabtree. The kid is being touted by many NFL scouts as the best player in the draft. In fact, he’s drawing comparisons to Cardinals receiver Larry Fitzgerald, who firmly entrenched his superstar status with his spectacular postseason run.

Why would the Browns take Crabtree?

Two reasons.

Edwards’ personality and flair aren’t seen as meshing with Mangini’s no nonsense, no personality demeanor.

And second, Braylon’s contract is up after the season and the Browns are going to have to shell out big bucks if they want to keep him around.

And even if they came up with the money, which they won’t, Edwards seems intent on leaving Cleveland for a big city.

So that’s why the rumors of him to the Giants keep cropping up and will probably happen on, or near, draft day. When you have a player of Edwards value, which is still surprisingly high after his poor 2008 campaign, you cannot afford to let him walk for nothing.

Just ask San Diego.

Although Rivers has performed well for the Chargers, it’s still tough for fans to think that they allowed Drew Brees, probably the third best QB in the NFL, to walk for nothing.

So Crabtree then makes a lot of sense. You move Edwards, pick up a first, third, and possibly a later round pick, and by selecting Crabtree at five, if the Seahawks don’t swoop him up at four, you have your receiver spot covered and can focus on building up the rest of your roster through the draft.

Let’s face it, the Browns aren’t doing anything in 2009.

The defense has so many holes in it and you can’t win in the NFL, or compete, if you can’t get off the field.

And that’s why this could all just be smokescreen and the Browns really intend on solidifying their defense with either Texas DE Brian Orakpo or Boston College DT, B.J. Raji.

For the latter, you’ll have to check back on Tuesday when the pre-draft drug tests are released to see if that’s still a possibility. ]]> https://profootball101.com/2009/04/19/cleveland-browns-going-with-sanchez-or-crabtree/feed/ 0