Top Pick

1. New England Patriots (-6.5) vs. Ind – I get it, Andrew Luck is a beast, the Colts are starting to figure things out and are coming off a great road win in Denver. It still won’t matter. New England should win this by double digits. The Colts don’t stop the run very well so you can expect a heavy dosage of RB LeGarrette Blount and even Jonas Gray, who ran for 199 and 4 TDs against Indy the last time they played.

Defensively, New England doesn’t have to worry about a running game so you can expect a scheme heavily intent on defensing the pass. The Colts continue to take steps to reach the top of the mountain but will fall short once again.

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2. Green Bay Packers (+7) vs. Sea – The Seahawks are a good bet to win. But not by a TD. Green Bay will be the most complete team they’ve faced on their winning streak and the 1st legit QB outside of Cam Newton, who is not near Rodgers’ class. Russell Wilson’s offense struggled down the stretch (minus the Cards game) and the Packers bring in a pretty good D.

Expect the Packers to keep the Seahawks under 21. On the other side of the ball the Packers will have some success and hit on a big play here and there. We think the Packers could pull off the upset (money line bet is +225) but will certainly cover the point spread.

Top pick

1. Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) vs. Car – The Panthers should win and enter the game in pretty good shape health-wise. The Cardinals are forced to play QB Ryan Lindley which is a depressing thought. However, Arizona’s D will be ready to play and will force Cam Newton into mistakes. Expect a close game which Arizona may pull out in the end. Either way, Carolina won’t be covering the point spread.

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2. Detroit Lions (+7) vs. Dal – The Cowboys come in strong, finishing 8-0 on the road. They haven’t fared as well at home. The Lions D will challenge Romo and this running game all afternoon. Matt Stafford is good for a few mistakes but this will be close throughout and could go either way. If Stafford shows some maturity then the Lions may steal one on the road.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) vs. Bal – The loss of RB Le’veon Bell is big, but Pittsburgh still has enough firepower to beat the Ravens at home. Baltimore does not enter this game playing their best ball and will go out in round 1.

4. Indianapolis Colts (-3) vs. Cin – The Bengals will likely be without WR AJ Green who has a concussion. That is a huge loss. They’ll pound the rock with RB Jeremy Hill but will face another aggressive defensive plan like they faced earlier when shutout 27-0 to the Colts. Expect QB Andrew Luck and Co. to get the job done again.

Detroit Lions (-8.5) vs. Chi – The complete implosion in Chicago makes this the top pick of the day. QB Jimmy Claussen will start in Jay Cutler’s place and the Lions D will be ALL over him. Detroit will blowout the Bears and easily cover the point spread.

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Carolina Panthers (-3) vs. Cle – Sorry Johnny, it’s a steep learning curve in the NFL. The rookie QB will struggle again mightily against a subpar D.

Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) vs. Was – RGIII is a welcome sight for an Eagles team reeling after two losses. The Eagles will win by double digits.

Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) vs. Dal – See money line bet.

Rounding Things Out

Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) vs. Arz – Bruce Arians can only pull so many rabbits out of his hat. Ryan Lindley vs. a HOT Seattle defense is a scary proposition.

Denver Broncos (-3.5) vs. Cin – The Bengals have been embarrassed in primetime the entire year.

Oakland Raiders (+7) vs. Buf – Crazy things happen in the black hole. Expect the Raiders to play better than many expect.

Money Line Bet

Indianapolis Colts (+164) vs. Dal – The Cowboys are coming home after an emotional win against the Eagles. Home has not been their friend. On top of things, DeMarco Murray now has a broken hand and his ability to play is to be determined. Look for Andrew Luck and Co. to come into Dallas and win a high scoring game. The Cowboys D will have their hands full with the Colts passing game.

Must Start

Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers

Tier 1

Tony Romo vs. Chi – Romo will bounce back from an awful Thanksgiving performance.

Matthew Stafford vs. TB – With a healthy Calvin Johnson the Lions QB is now a 22-25 FFL point candidate.

Tom Brady vs. SD – Expect 300 yards and 3 TDs in SD.

Jay Cutler vs. Dal – The Cowboys D is suddenly tired and showing signs of wear and tear.

Russell Wilson vs. Phi – His maneuverability will be good for 20+ FFL points in Philly.

Tier 2

Ben Roethlisberger vs. Cin – Roethlisberger’s numbers are down on the road and Cincy’s D is tough at home.

Philip Rivers vs. NE – The tough Patriots pass D brings Rivers down a notch.

Fantasy Sleeper

Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Jax – Don’t expect 6 TDs but is a fantasy football sleeper against the Jags.

Bust

Mark Sanchez vs. Sea – Chip Kelly’s innovative offense will have its hands full with the Seahawks.

Must Start

Seattle, San Francisco, Indianapolis and Miami

Tier 1

Detroit Lions vs. Chi – Look for double digit turnovers from the Lions on Sunday.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. TB – This unit is getting healthy.

Buffalo Bills vs. Cle – Expect the Bills to force Hoyer into multiple turnvoers.

Baltimore Ravens vs. SD – The Ravens are very tough at home this late in the season.

St. Louis Rams vs. Oak – The Rams D is hot and will continue their play against the Raiders.

Tier 2

Houston Texans vs. Ten – Expect 7-10 FFL points against the Titans.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Was – The QB situation is a mess in Washington.

Bust

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Den – it’s best to avoid this unit in Week 13

Fantasy Sleeper

New York Giants vs. Jax – Only because it’s the Jaguars.

Must Start

Seattle, Kansas City and San Francisco

Tier 1

Buffalo Bills vs. NYJ – The Jets are not much better with Vick behind center.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jax – Indy will blitz the Jags into a few turnovers.

San Diego Chargers vs. Stl – Shaun Hill will find the going tough at San Diego.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Ten – Look for Philly to blitz the Titans into 2-3 turnovers.

New England Patriots vs. Det – The Patriots are still a low No. 1 facing a tough O at home.

Tier 2

Arizona Cardinals vs. Sea – They’ll force Russell Wilson into a few turnovers.

Green Bay Packers vs. Min – The Packers are rolling at home. This one they take on the road.

Bust

Detroit Lions vs. NE – This Lions team is a tough unit each week, but New England is on a roll and playing at home.

Fantasy Sleeper

St. Louis Rams vs. SD – The Rams recent resurgence is not a fluke. They’re finally buying into the system and will get after Rivers.

1. Detroit Lions (EVEN) vs. Arz – The Cardinals have performed amazingly this season despite so many players hurt. QB Drew Stanton went 2-1 in his earlier stint but now gets a top defense that has made the lives of opposing QBs miserable. Expect the Lions to cover the point spread and pull out a close one on the road.

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2. New England (+3) vs. Ind – The Colts are favored because this is at home. New England’s hot on both sides of the ball and their D will be the deciding factor.

3. Cincinnati Bengals (+7.5) vs. NO – The Bengals are banged up on the offense line and at the LBer position. They could be getting help this week and will put on a better showing than last Thursday Night.

4. Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) vs. Chi – See money line bet.

Rounding Things Out

Kansas City Chiefs (-2) vs. Sea – Arrowhead is a tough place to play. Look for the Chiefs D to smother Russell Wilson and force a few turnovers.

Carolina Panthers (+1) vs. Atl – Both teams are down but the Panthers will do just enough to pull out the home win.

Oakland Raiders (+10) vs. Den – The game last week was actually close for much of the 1st half. Then Peyton Manning went crazy. The Chargers are not the Broncos and are still pretty banged up. Expect a close game between these rivals.

Money Line Bet

Minnesota Vikings (+128) vs. Chi – The Bears are going nowhere fast. The issues they are experiencing are more systemic and there’s not a simple fix. Expect the Vikings, who are playing better defensively over the past month, to come into Chicago and pull out the win.

Must Start

Denver, Miami and Detroit

Tier 1

Buffalo Bills vs. Mia – Tannehill is banged up as is Lamar Miller and their LT is out for the year.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Sea – Russell Wilson is playing horribly. Expect a few turnovers and a low scoring affair.

Seattle Seahawks vs. KC – Alex Smith and Co. have had difficulties getting untracked and it won’t start here.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Ten – Look for a big bounce back on MNF. Tennesee may be playing without TE Delanie Walker.

Tier 2

Minnesota Vikings vs. Chi – It’s surprising but the Bears offense is a mess now. Cutler will turn the ball over a few times again.

Cleveland Browns vs. Hou – This D is rounding into form. Uncertainty for Houston with Mallett behind center.

Houston Texans vs. Cle – This game figures to be low scoring. Look for Watt to get to Hoyer a few times.

San Francisco 49ers vs. NYG – The Giants get Jennings back at RB so temper expectations here.

Bust

Cincinnati Bengals vs. NO – Injuries have derailed their success. Stay away this week.

Fantasy Sleeper

New Orleans Saints vs. Cin – They’ve put up a string of quality efforts and face a struggling Bengals offense.

Seattle and Detroit

Tier 1

Dallas Cowboys vs. Was – The Boys love seeing Colt McCoy now behind C.

New England Patriots vs. Chi – Chicago is a mess right now.

Denver Broncos vs. SD – Expect the Broncos front to get after Rivers and Co.

Miami Dolphins vs. Jax – This unit will make Bortles struggle tremendously.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Pit – The Colts are a No. 1 D/ST after their recent stretch. Keep playing the hot hand.

Tier 2

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cin – This looks even better if AJ Green is out.

Houston Texans vs. Ten – If Whitehurst plays, they could be a No. 1.

Bust

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Bal – This unit is struggling mightily over the past three games.

Fantasy Sleeper

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Min – A bye week can do a lot of good for a team learning a new D. Facing Teddy Bridgewater helps too.

Chargers, Patriots, Panthers

Tier 1

Detroit Lions vs. NYJ – Geno Smith loves turning the ball over.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Car – This is a tough place for road teams.

Miami Dolphins vs. Oak – It’s the Raiders.

Houston Texans vs. Buf – The Texans D/ST will get after QB Emmanuel.

Tier 2

Indianapolis Colts vs. Ten – QB Jake Locker has been a turnover machine.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Min – They are a sleeper this week. The Vikings have lost so much on offense.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. NE – This isn’t the same Pats offense.

Buffalo Bills vs. Hou – QB Ryan Fitzpatrick can be forced into mistakes.

Bust

Chicago Bears vs. GB – Just because the Packers have started slow shouldn’t fool you. GB will find their groove this week.

Fantasy Sleeper

Oakland Raiders vs. Mia – The Dolphins offense is in disarray.

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