Image by Getty Images via @daylife

Houston Texans (-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals – Although the Texans have played their worst ball of the season lately, they’re catching a Bengals team that failed to beat one playoff team the entire season.

They also showed distinct holes against the run in their finale as Ray Rice torched them for two long TDs.

Against Arian Foster and Ben Tate, that’s a weakness that’s sure to be exploited. This should be a competitive game throughout, but look for Houston to win a lower scoring game by 7 on the back of a strong defensive effort and the legs of their stout running game.

Earlier in the week the FG point spread looked good in Cincinnati’s favor. But now, whether betting in a Vegas sportsbook or the best online sportsbook, the smart money is on Houston.

NFC

Detroit Lions (+10.5) vs. New Orleans Saints – The Saints will win this game. They’ve won most in their home park going away. But the Lions will be much healthier this go around than when the teams faced off a month ago.

In that contest they were without DT Ndamukong Suh plus S Louis Delmas, which hurt against the pass. And that is exactly where Brees and Co. attacked that night. The yards and points will be high once again, as both offenses are prolific, but the outcome will be closer than the 10.5 betting line suggests.

Here’s our Week 17 picks.

Best Bet

1. New York Jets (-10) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have nothing to play for and have added incentive to tank this game because it will mean Pittsburgh is kept out of the post season. That being said, their offense has been in a funk the past few weeks and they’ll want to work out some issues prior to Wild Card Weekend.

Expect the Bengals starters to play for about a half, and keep it close, and then for New York to pull away late en route to a two TD win.

Next In Line

2. Baltimore Ravens (-10) vs. Oakland Raiders

The Raiders have pulled off some big upsets by the bay this season (Bengals, Eagles, etc.) but those weren’t games where everything was on the line for the other team. This is. The Ravens must win on Sunday to advance to the post season.

Look for a spirited effort from Ray Lewis and Co. and for the offense, led by Ray Rice, to dominate the Raiders in the Black Hole.

3. Tennessee Titans (-4) vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks have mailed in the season and are only playing for a higher draft selection on Sunday. The Titans on the other hand are focused on getting Chris Johnson to 2,000 yards – and the single season total yards mark – and will beat up a demoralized Seahawks squad in Week 17.

4. Philadelphia Eagles (+3) vs. Dallas Cowboys

Next In Line

Kansas City Chiefs (+13) vs. Denver Broncos

The Broncos have had an excellent season considering their expectations coming into it, but the last time they were favored by this much, the Raiders pulled off the shocking 20-19 upset two weeks ago.

They’re on the outside looking in (at the post season) and the Chiefs, with the return of WR Dwayne Bowe, are playing more competitively on offense. KC will lose, but not by 13.

Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers are riding high on a two game winning streak after knocking off the Seahawks and Saints in consecutive weeks. Unfortunately they won’t finish the season on a three game streak. The Falcons, re-energized with the return of Matt Ryan, will control this game offensively, and on defense, they’ll force Josh Freeman into a few turnovers.

Houston Texans (-7.5) vs. New England Patriots

This will be typical Patriots. Already having a home game in the Playoffs secured, the starters (Brady, Moss, Welker, etc) will play a quarter – maybe a half – before Belichick puts in the backups. The Texans still have an outside chance at a Wild Card and will romp at home on Sunday.

Money Line

Philadelphia Eagles (+140) vs. Dallas Cowboys

A lot is at stake when these two teams meet in Week 17. The Cowboys with a win will win the NFC East outright. The Eagles, thanks to the collapse of the Vikings, currently are the No. 2 seed in the NFC and with a win will lock down that first round bye in addition to the NFC East.

Offensively, look for Reid to try and re-establish the Eagles running game. The Eagles have gotten away from that in recent weeks but with the return of Westbrook, to go along with McCoy and Weaver, now’s a good time to begin balancing out the team’s play-calling.

An effective running game will also keep DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer off McNabb and open up the passing game to DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek.

Defensively, look for the Eagles to blitz Dallas to keep the offense under control. When Romo has time, he can deliver the ball to Austin and Witten and is extremely effective. When he’s pressured, he makes mistakes. Dallas also tends to get away from the running game when Romo is off so expect the Eagles to bring as much pressure as possible.

In their last game, playing a straight up defense hurt Philly as Romo was able to locate Miles Austin on a  GW 49 yard TD pass late in the game. They won’t make the same mistake again.

Andy Reid has strong record in Dallas and he’ll continue that success with a win on Sunday as the Eagles will wrap up a bye in the Playoffs.

1. QB Matt Schaub

Even playing with a dislocated non-throwing shoulder, Schaub is an excellent fantasy football start this week against the Seahawks. Seattle is horrible on the road and currently ranks 25th in the league against the pass. Look for Schaub to target Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones for a 250 yard game with at least two TDs.

2. RB DeAngelo Williams vs. New England Patriots

The Patriots front seven is not getting the job done in 2009. Whether it’s due to a lack of physical play or enough big bodies is not clear. What is clear is that opposing RBs are able to run the ball with success against this unit. The Panthers will rely heavily on their running game with Matt Moore behind center, and look for DeAngelo Williams to once again top 100 yards with a TD.

3. WR Larry Fitzgerald vs. San Francisco 49ers

Fitzgerald now has 10 TDs on the season and five in his last four games playing with Kurt Warner. He’s also averaged 107 yards in that time frame.  He and Warner are on the same page and that’s bad news for the Niners DBs, who’ve had trouble covering top tier WRs this season. Look for another 100 yard game with a score on Monday Night.

Fantasy Busts

1. QB Brett Favre vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Brett Favre’s coming off a horrible game although many think LT Brian McKinnie’s stance may have been giving away what plays were being run. They’ll need to correct that if it’s the case. Regardless, the Bengals have one of the best CB tandems in the league (Hall, Joseph) and have consistently held top passing games to sub par performances. Expect another one here.

2. RB Matt Forte vs. Green Bay Packers

Super fantasy bust Matt Forte is looking at another bleak performance on Sunday. The Packers have corrected their run defensive issues and will dominate the line of scrimmage in Chicago. In the one and done fantasy playoff format, it’d be wise to look elsewhere at the RB position.

3. WR Mike Sims-Walker vs. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins young secondary is improving every single week. Sims-Walker was held to one catch for 12 yards vs. Houston and just four catches the week before that. Miami’s pass rush will keep the Jaguars passing game in check and Sims-Walker’s numbers will once again be minimal.

For Week Four, we like a big week out of the favorites.

Best Bets

1. Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) vs. Cleveland Browns

Under normal circumstances, this could definitely be a trap game. However, the Browns are so bad and have so much internal bickering, that we just don’t see that happening. Look for the Bengals to ride RB Cedric Benson in this one and for their defense, which has come up big against the Packers and Steelers, to stifle the lowly Browns offense. This is our best bet of the week.

Next In Line

2. New York Giants (-8.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Giants are finally getting healthy and should have some of their key players back this week. The Chiefs on the other hand have been dreadful thus far. Expect another dominating defensive effort by New York and for their offense to pound the rock with Jacobs and Bradshaw all afternoon. This should be a double digit rout.

3. San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) vs. St. Louis Rams

The Niners are coming off a terrible loss at the hands of Favre’s Vikings. They are 12 seconds away from being 3-0. The Rams are still a long way away from winning their first game and have now been bitten by the injury bug. LT Jason Smith is out with a knee injury and QB Marc Bulger is nursing a hurt shoulder. Look for San Francisco to dominate defensively on Sunday and for its offense to do enough to win by at least 10 points.

4. Miami Dolphins (+2.5) vs. Buffalo Bills

See Money Line Analysis

Others We Like

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) vs. Denver Broncos

The Broncos 3-0 start is an aberration. It’s the result of one miracle play and facing inferior competition. The Cowboys, who have plenty of weaknesses themselves, will control both lines of scrimmage and win by seven.

Houston Texans (-9) vs. Oakland Raiders

The Texans have put a lot of points on the board this season. Unfortunately, they’ve allowed more than they scored in two of their games. But this week comes the Raiders, a team whose offense is as defunct as we’ve seen in sometime. Look for the Texans to reach .500 on Sunday with a two TD win over the lowly Raiders.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) vs. San Diego Chargers

The Chargers tend to perform poorly against the more physical teams in the league. Their lack of a running game as well as inability to stop the run doesn’t bode well in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are also very mad after two last second losses and will rebound with a one TD victory on Sunday Night.

Money Line

Miami Dolphins (+110) vs. Buffalo Bills

Chad Henne takes over as the starting QB in this one. This is the only reason that the Dolphins are underdogs at home on Sunday. But we still think they’re a great bet.

Offensively, we like the Dolphins to pound the ball with RB Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams and to utilize the Wild Cat formation between 25-30% of the time. Their success on the ground will take some pressure off Henne and open up opportunities on the play action pass. Look for TE Fasano to be targeted heavily and for WR Bess and Ginn Jr to be involved as well. The Bills will be without both starting S Donte Whitner and CB Leodis McKelvin in this one.

Defensively, look for the Dolphins front seven to create havoc against the Bills depleted offensive line. The Fins are strong against the run and will keep Jackson and Lynch in check all afternoon. And when Edwards does drop back to pass, Miami’s D Line will sack him a handful of times and pick off a ball or two.

Miami will finally join the win column in 2009 with a 20-14 win.

2009 Results vs. the Point Spread

Best Bets 1-2 – 33%

Next In Line 8-1 – 89%

Others We Like 4-5 – 44%

Money Line 3-0 – 100%

Overall – 67%

1.  New York Giants

Our top fantasy football defense for Week Four is an easy choice. Coming off a shutout at Tampa, the Giants get the 0-3 Chiefs, who have been downright ugly on offense in 2009. Look for at least a four sack, two turnover afternoon in what will be a dominating effort by the Giants.

2. Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills

The Bills have suffered key losses to their offensive line and are not giving Trent Edwards the necessary time to deliver the ball. The Dolphins match-up nicely here and their defensive front will overpower Buffalo’s beleaguered line. This will lead to multiple sacks and turnovers. Expect a top effort from an angry Dolphins bunch.

3. Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns

Is it really possible to not pick a defense facing the Browns? They’ve scored one garbage time TD in their last 36 quarters. It doesn’t get much worse than that. The Bengals have been strong defensively (pick six vs. the Steelers) and have a great opportunity for multiple sacks and turnovers in the Dawg Pound on Sunday.

4. San Francisco 49ers vs. St. Louis Rams

The 49ers defense is a much more physical unit than they were during the Mike Nolan era. The Rams offense on the other hand is as listless as it was in 2008. And with Marc Bulger possibly unable to go here (shoulder), look for another solid outing – very solid if Kyle Boller gets the nod – and for the 49ers to score double digit fantasy points.

Sleepers

1. New Orleans Saints vs. New York Jets

The upstart Jets could find themselves in an unenviable position on Sunday. If the Drew Brees led Saints can jump to a lead, it’ll force Sanchez to have to throw to win. DC Gregg Williams aggressive defense will then force the rookie QB into turnovers and sacks. This is a nice fantasy sleeper coming off an excellent effort in Buffalo last Sunday.

2. Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders

The perfect antidote to a struggling NFL defense, comes in the form of the Oakland Raiders, a team surpassed by no others in offensive futility. Expect Mario Williams and Co. to have a few a few sacks of the “statuesque” JaMarcus Russell and for the third year QB, and his inaccurate arm, to gift wrap a few interceptions to the Texans secondary.

Others We Like

Washington Redskins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If there’s ever a week to start the Redskins, this is it. The Bucs are now going with back-up QB Josh Johnson and have no identity on offense. The Skins, although coming off a bad loss to Detroit, still possess a talented defense and should easily be able to subdue any threat by Tampa on Sunday.

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions

The Bears have been very tough against the Lions at home in recent years and we see nothing to believe that will change in this one. Look for Chicago to confuse Stafford and force the rookie QB into a few costly mistakes.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Denver Broncos

The Cowboys are still searching for their pass rush but should find it on Sunday. The result will be multiple sacks of QB Kyle Orton and a few forced turnovers.

A few more

Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. San Diego Chargers

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins

11. Buffalo Bills: DE Everette Brown

A quality offensive lineman can be found later in the draft and we think the Bills could target one at pick No. 28 or in the second round.

12.  Denver Broncos: DE Tyson Jackson. HC Josh McDaniels now finds himself with even more holes to fill than when he was hired, but the most pressing area is still on defense.

It’s the main reason why Shanahan and Cutler are gone. Had Denver been able to stop anyone, they’d have been a playoff team in 2008 and their entire outlook would be different. So look for them to scoop up Jackson, who will provide pressure off the edge and be stout against the run.

13. Washington Redskins: OT Michael Oher. The Skins are looking to beef up their line and will be happy to find Oher on the board with their pick. They run the football first, pass it second.  And finding a complement to LT Chris Samuels will help them execute their offensive game plan more effectively. He’ll also be groomed as Samuels eventual replacement.

14. New Orleans Saints: CB Malcolm Jenkins. Although some mocks have Chris “Beanie” Wells going at this pick to replace the departed Deuce McAllister, the Saints need help on defense. It’s the reason why they’ve missed the postseason the last two seasons.

Jenkins provides excellent value at this point and will provide the Saints with a young, talented secondary. Last year’s second round pick, CB Tracy Porter, was playing extremely well before an injury put him out for the year.

15. Houston Texans: LB Brian Cushing. The Texans need to get better defensively if they are going to compete in the AFC South. Offensively, they’re strong; it’s the defense that needs an upgrade. After building up its defensive line over the past few years, it’s time to solidify the linebacker position. Cushing is a nice fit and will make his presence felt early on.

16. San Diego Chargers: LB Ray Maualuga. The Chargers still have a deep and talented roster but are a bit thin at the line backing position. Maualuga is a big-time talent and will provide a boost to a unit that was banged up last year after Shawne Merriman was placed on IR. This move should turn a weakness into a strength.

17. New York Jets: QB Josh Freeman. The Jets are apparently in love with Freeman’s athleticism and he is set to become this year’s Joe Flacco—the guy who rises out of nowhere to be a first round pick. And with the QBs currently on the roster can you blame them?

New York’s not the best place to throw a kid “into the fire,” but if they bring him along slowly and let him adapt to the speed of the game, this might be a pick that pays huge dividends in 2010 and beyond.

18. Denver Broncos: LB Robert Ayers. The Broncos could go running back at this pick, but defense should be the theme in round one. Ayers provides a big body at the LB position and will help boost a unit that performed poorly in 2008.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DT Peria Jerry. The Bucs’ defense is still the team’s backbone, but they’re lacking a big body in the middle of the defensive line. Jerry would solve this problem.

And after watching the Panthers’ impressive RB tandem tear this unit apart last December, stopping the run is of utmost importance.

20. Detroit Lions: DE Aaron Maybin. After taking Stafford at No. 1, look for the defensive minded Schwartz to turn to his roots: defense. And landing Maybin with the 20th selection would be a steal for the Lions.

It’s virtually impossible to be successful in today’s NFL without having pass rushers who can get to the QB, and Schwartz addresses a problem area here at pick No. 20.

Week 6 of the NFL provided plenty of surprises and classic endings. After their past two victories over the Eagles and Cowboys, the Redskins suffered a classic letdown in their home game against the lowly 0-4 Rams. After Washington fought back with 10 4th quarter points to take a 17-16 lead, Marc Bulger drove his team down the field and Josh Brown hit his 3rd FG of the day to seal the 19-17 victory as time expired. So much for Washington’s four game winning streak… The Skins, as well as the media, might have gotten a bit ahead of themselves with their lofty revised expectations for Zorn’s crew – some stating that they were the best in the league – and the reason being is that we found out Dallas isn’t nearly as good as most expected.

The Cowboys went into Arizona and played a terrible game. I haven’t heard the post game yet but I’m sure TO was whining for not getting the ball thrown his way enough. The Cards began this game with a KO return for a TD and ended it with a blocked punt in OT that was recovered for a TD, giving Arizona a 30-24 victory. The game shouldn’t have been so close but Dallas was aided by some horrific calls early on. Trailing 7-0 in the 1st quarter, Romo, who was harassed all day, was sacked and stripped of the ball which the Cards recovered at the 20. Only it didn’t count. The ref inexplicably blew the whistle and ruled him down, giving possession back to the Cowboys. On another play, with Romo in the end zone, he made a jerk of the body motion as he was sacked and the ball came loose, which the Cards recovered for a TD. However, after a review, the call was overturned as the ref rule in favor of the infamous “tuck” rule. I’m not sure what the league has to do with the refs – it’s been an issue for years now – but the officiating is getting worse and worse each year, and a lot of games are adversely affected because of it. If not for some high school tackling by Arizona late in the 4th, allowing Marion Barber to catch a short pass and run 70 yards for the TD, the game would’ve ended for Dallas with a 10-point loss. This team has a lot of problems: Wade Phillips is an average coach and they lack the continuity of a champion, and what was predicted before the season as a walk through to the NFC East Championship looks as if it’s going to be a dog fight for a wild card, between the Skins and perhaps the Eagles.

In Indianapolis, at least for one Sunday, the Colts of the past decade reappeared. Against a tough, stingy defense like the Ravens, Peyton’s line gave him time to pass, something it had been unable to do in the first five weeks of the season, and Manning torched Baltimore for 270+ yards and 3 TDs. He had a 4th called back on a questionable call. The defense, playing without standout Safety Bob Sanders, came up big today against rookie signal caller Joe Flacco and the Colts buried the Ravens 31-3.

It was much the same down in San Diego. In a game the Chargers had to win, they came out and played a strong game. Rivers from the get go was on fire, and took advantage of the Patriots short CBs by targeting and connecting with his big receivers early and often. The D played solidly as well making life miserable for Matt Cassel and Co., who really had no answer for the Chargers aggressive game plan. Although the score was 30-10, I wouldn’t necessarily jump to conclusions that it’ll be smooth sailing from here on out for SD. Matt Cassel is still only playing in his 4th game as a starter, so his less than stellar performance was to be expected playing in a hostile environment. And while Rivers was solid again this evening, Tomlinson was still pretty much shut down outside of two or three runs which netted 10 yards+. Until he gets going again and is consistently picking up 4 to 5 yards with some long runs sprinkled in there, it’s going to be a hot and cold season for this team. At least being .500 takes some heat off Turner in the papers this week.

Is a Brad Childress watch on yet? This guy is horrible. Supposedly a great offensive mind, it just shows you that it was Reid calling the plays in Philly when Childress served there as offensive coordinator. It took a very questionable call (late pass interference against Detroit CB Leigh Bodden) to get his team in range to kick the game winning FG and beat the lowly Lions 12-10, in a game at home, facing a 3rd string QB. The offensive plan was unimaginative and the game was a snoozer. I’d have to imagine he’s on a short leash with all of the money that the Vikings’ owner spent this past summer.

Lastly, it was truly a day of epic comebacks in the NFL. We’ve already discussed the finishes of the Redskins, Vikings and Cowboys, but there were others. After the Bears rallied furiously to take a 20-19 lead with a 11 seconds left in Atlanta, Matt Ryan, a very impressive rookie, threw a beautiful 30-yard pass to his receiver on the sideline with one second left. Jason Elam then nailed the 48 yard FG to give the Falcons a 22-20 win. In Houston, after Miami took a 28-23 lead with just under two minutes to play, Matt Schaub, helped by a great Andre Johnson catch on 4th down, took Houston down the field and ran the ball in from the 2 on 4th down. The Texans notched their 1st win of the season 29-28.

So, as week 6 winds down, I think we’ve learned a few things. While the NFC East is still the best division in football, anything can happen on any given Sunday and that’s exactly what happened today, and in the AFC, a few sleeping giants (Indy and SD) just might have awakened after stellar performances on their home turfs respectively.