NFC

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New York Giants (-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons – This game is about as even as they come. And the 3 point betting line suggests that the odds makers think just that.

The edge however lies with the home team as Atlanta, who plays in a dome, must play outdoors in what figures to be a chillier Sunday afternoon.

So, look for the Falcons to try and run the ball with RB Turner to set up the passing game, which should find success against a less than stout Giants secondary.

There will be opportunities for WR Julio Jones or WR Roddy White to hit the big play.

When New York has the ball, the Giants will use the pass to set-up the run. The Falcons play a lot of zone so look for Eli to use the short to mid range passing game before getting Bradshaw and Jacobs involved.

And once the Falcons bring their Safeties closer to the line, the Giants will target Nicks and Cruz deep, where they’ve been deadly all year.

The contest will be close throughout but look for New York to secure the win in the 4th quarter by more than a FG.

AFC

Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.5) vs. Denver Broncos – Even with the large spread, it’s just very difficult to go with Denver right now. Tim Tebow is playing horribly and likely will not top 100 yards passing this week.

Pittsburgh’s defense is fast enough to keep him contained while getting after him, which makes Tebow a very likely candidate for a turnover which is returned for a TD.

When Pittsburgh has the ball, QB Ben Roethlisberger’s bad ankle and all, expect them to find success down the middle of the field with S Brian Dawkins out. He’s been a big loss to the Broncos D over the three game losing streak and leaves a HUGE hole in the secondary.

That will open up the running game for RB Isaac Redman and the passing game to WR Mike Wallace, WR Antonio Brown and TE Heath Miller.

It was a nice, magical, some say supernatural run while it lasted, but the Broncos season comes to an end on Sunday.

Look for the 17-3 Steelers romp as they advance to round 2

Here’s our Week 17 picks.

Best Bet

1. New York Jets (-10) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have nothing to play for and have added incentive to tank this game because it will mean Pittsburgh is kept out of the post season. That being said, their offense has been in a funk the past few weeks and they’ll want to work out some issues prior to Wild Card Weekend.

Expect the Bengals starters to play for about a half, and keep it close, and then for New York to pull away late en route to a two TD win.

Next In Line

2. Baltimore Ravens (-10) vs. Oakland Raiders

The Raiders have pulled off some big upsets by the bay this season (Bengals, Eagles, etc.) but those weren’t games where everything was on the line for the other team. This is. The Ravens must win on Sunday to advance to the post season.

Look for a spirited effort from Ray Lewis and Co. and for the offense, led by Ray Rice, to dominate the Raiders in the Black Hole.

3. Tennessee Titans (-4) vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks have mailed in the season and are only playing for a higher draft selection on Sunday. The Titans on the other hand are focused on getting Chris Johnson to 2,000 yards – and the single season total yards mark – and will beat up a demoralized Seahawks squad in Week 17.

4. Philadelphia Eagles (+3) vs. Dallas Cowboys

Next In Line

Kansas City Chiefs (+13) vs. Denver Broncos

The Broncos have had an excellent season considering their expectations coming into it, but the last time they were favored by this much, the Raiders pulled off the shocking 20-19 upset two weeks ago.

They’re on the outside looking in (at the post season) and the Chiefs, with the return of WR Dwayne Bowe, are playing more competitively on offense. KC will lose, but not by 13.

Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers are riding high on a two game winning streak after knocking off the Seahawks and Saints in consecutive weeks. Unfortunately they won’t finish the season on a three game streak. The Falcons, re-energized with the return of Matt Ryan, will control this game offensively, and on defense, they’ll force Josh Freeman into a few turnovers.

Houston Texans (-7.5) vs. New England Patriots

This will be typical Patriots. Already having a home game in the Playoffs secured, the starters (Brady, Moss, Welker, etc) will play a quarter – maybe a half – before Belichick puts in the backups. The Texans still have an outside chance at a Wild Card and will romp at home on Sunday.

Money Line

Philadelphia Eagles (+140) vs. Dallas Cowboys

A lot is at stake when these two teams meet in Week 17. The Cowboys with a win will win the NFC East outright. The Eagles, thanks to the collapse of the Vikings, currently are the No. 2 seed in the NFC and with a win will lock down that first round bye in addition to the NFC East.

Offensively, look for Reid to try and re-establish the Eagles running game. The Eagles have gotten away from that in recent weeks but with the return of Westbrook, to go along with McCoy and Weaver, now’s a good time to begin balancing out the team’s play-calling.

An effective running game will also keep DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer off McNabb and open up the passing game to DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek.

Defensively, look for the Eagles to blitz Dallas to keep the offense under control. When Romo has time, he can deliver the ball to Austin and Witten and is extremely effective. When he’s pressured, he makes mistakes. Dallas also tends to get away from the running game when Romo is off so expect the Eagles to bring as much pressure as possible.

In their last game, playing a straight up defense hurt Philly as Romo was able to locate Miles Austin on a  GW 49 yard TD pass late in the game. They won’t make the same mistake again.

Andy Reid has strong record in Dallas and he’ll continue that success with a win on Sunday as the Eagles will wrap up a bye in the Playoffs.

1. Antonio Gates

There are two things which could potentially stop Gates this week in Cleveland: the weather and a huge Chargers lead. That’s it. No one in Cleveland’s secondary is going to be able to keep up with him. Expect he and Rivers to follow-up on their excellent Week 12 performance (118 yards, 2 TDs) with another solid game.

2. Jason Witten vs. New York Giants

The New York Giants defense is in complete shambles and can’t seem to figure things out under DC Bill Sheridan. It’s almost embarrassing to watch their Safeties in coverage. This is great news for Witten’s fantasy owners who’ve been waiting a while for a break out game; this is it.

3. Vernon Davis vs. Seattle Seahawks

Davis has been the premier fantasy football TE in 2009 and continues to enjoy success with Alex Smith as his starting QB. The two have found the end zone in consecutive weeks and will find it for a third in Seattle.

4. Visanthe Schiancoe vs. Arizona Cardinals

Favre’s favorite red zone target continues to be a beast near the end zone. Look for a high scoring affair in the desert and at least one TD – maybe two – for Schiancoe.

Sleepers

1. Dustin Keller vs. Buffalo Bills

With Rex Ryan placing an emphasis on ball control, Sanchez will throw safer passes. This will open things up for Keller who should immediately reap the benefits of the short passing game. He’s an excellent fantasy sleeper on Thursday Night.

2. Jermichael Finley vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens strong pass rush will likely have Aaron Rodgers passing the ball sooner than he’d like to, and this could prove a blessing for Finley. He’s tall, fast and has excellent hands and will prove a nightmare matchup for the Ravens Linebackers.

Others We Like

Greg Olsen vs. St. Louis Rams

Olsen is Cutler’s only viable threat and will be targeted heavily against the Rams. Look for Olsen to top 70 yards with at least one score.

Brent Celek vs. Atlanta Falcons

Celek’s torn ligaments in his finger is disconcerting, but according to him it won’t be a major problem (catching the ball). With the likelihood of Philadelphia being forced to play this without Jackson, Celek’s role will be that much more prominent in this offense.

Dallas Clark vs. Tennessee Titans

Clark is Manning’s No. 2 target (after Wayne) and continues to shine in the passing game. He’ll find the going rather easy against the Titans secondary and should be in line for a big day.

A Few More

Heath Miller vs. Oakland Raiders

Jeremy Shockey vs. Washington Redskins

Tony Gonzalez vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Kevin Boss vs. Dallas Cowboys

1. QB Kurt Warner vs. Houston Texans

Warner and the offense had the bye week to correct some of its problems and should come out firing on Sunday. The Texans don’t pose much of a threat defensively, especially in the secondary, and Fitzgerald, Boldin and Breaston will exploit these mismatches all day long.

2. RB Brandon Jacobs vs. Oakland Raiders

With the likelihood that Eli Manning will not play in this one becoming greater by the day, look for Jacobs to see at least 25 carries on Sunday. Even if Manning plays, he won’t need to do too much passing to put away the Raiders and once they have a lead, which should come early, expect Jacobs to amass over 100 yards and two TDs.

3. WR Reggie Wayne vs. Tennessee Titans

Wayne’s ascent to the top of the fantasy rankings for receivers doesn’t bode well for Tennessee. The Titans have been destroyed through the air all season and now comes Peyton Manning, who’s off to his best start ever. Look for Wayne to easily top the 100 yard mark and score a long TD.

Fantasy Busts

1. QB Matt Ryan vs. San Francisco 49ers

Ryan will be efficient on Sunday but efficiency doesn’t translate to success in fantasy football. The 49ers have a lot of speed on defense and this could limit the big play opportunities for the Falcons. You can probably put him down for at least a TD or two, but we’d be surprised if he threw for much more than 200 yards in this one.

2. RB Steven Jackson vs. Minnesota Vikings

First of all, no team runs on the Vikings. Second, especially when playing without its starting QB and LT. Look for Jackson to be bottled up all afternoon as Minnesota has absolutely zero respect for Kyle Boller.

3. Steve Smith vs. Oakland Raiders

It’s looking like Smith will have to play this one without starting QB Eli Manning. He’ll also most likely be blanketed by CB Nnamdi Asomugha, the best corner in the business. These two factors significantly diminish his overall fantasy upside in Week Five.

1. Minnesota Vikings

The Rams head into Minnesota after giving up three TDs to the Niners D/ST units combined. And oh yeah, they were also shut out. While there’s a chance that Bulger will be back on Sunday,  it won’t matter; look for a dominating effort by Jared Allen and Co. and for multiple sacks and turnovers from the top ranked fantasy football D/ST unit in Week Five.

2. New York Giants vs. Oakland Raiders

The Giants head home this week and have the luxury of facing the JaMarcus Russell led Raiders on Sunday. That name alone is worth three turnovers. Expect New York to get after the QB and finish with at least five sacks in this one.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Detroit Lions

The Steelers are hoping to have S Troy Polamalu back for this one. Even if they don’t, they’ll have a lot of success in Detroit. Expect Dick Labeau to blitz frequently on Sunday and force Daunte Culpepper (or Matt Stafford) into a few costly mistakes. They’ll also rack up a handful of sacks.

4. Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Eagles are coming off a bye week and poised for a big effort against the lowly Bucs.  QB Josh Johnson just doesn’t inspire fear – or respect – in the Eagles defense and we like for Trent Cole and Co. to get after the QB and create at multiple turnovers.

Sleepers

1. Buffalo Bills vs. Cleveland Browns

The Bills defense has been ravaged by injuries but there’s still a good amount of talent on that side of the ball. And the Cleveland Browns are one of the two worst teams in the league right now. Expect a bounce back on Sunday which makes them a great fantasy sleeper play.

2. Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are very conservative on offense and they’ll be forced to pass in this one if they expect to win. The Falcons, coming off a bye week which allowed them to heal and get better, will attack Hill and Co. on Sunday and force a few turnovers.

Others We Like

New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins

The Jets will take away the running game and force Chad Henne to beat them, which he won’t be able to do. Look for a big day from Rex Ryan’s bunch.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Cowboys issues regarding pressuring the QB will be non-existent on Sunday. The Chiefs offensive line is still “a work in progress” and Matt Cassel holds onto the ball too long.

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets

The Jets, and Mark Sanchez in particular, showed that in close games he’s vulnerable to the costly mistake. The Dolphins pressure defense has been getting after QBs and they’ll do so again on Monday Night.

A Few More

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals

San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons

Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans

In 2008, The NFC South featured one top 10 fantasy defense, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but this year, we think the defense that has the ability to make the most noise is the Carolina Panthers.

In 2002, the Lions received a high grade for taking Joey Harrington; that didn’t work out so well. On the other side of the coin, the Giants were given a C in Jerry Reese’s first draft in 2007; that turned out a little better than most experts predicted.

So here are 10 teams which improved themselves in the 2009 NFL Draft.

Philadelphia Eagles.

When you mix in the trades (LT Jason Peters, CB Ellis Hobbs) and the draft picks (WR Maclin, RB McCoy, etc), you’ve got to feel very good about the Eagles after these moves. Their offense is going to be much more dangerous and their defense, while there are still holes left to be filled -S Dawkins departure, should still be pretty good.

New England Patriots

The Patriots were the wheeler and dealers of this draft and grabbed a lot of quality (NT Brace, S Chung, etc) in the second and third rounds.

On top of that, they were able to solidify next year’s draft position by securing three second round picks in 2010. While the Pats don’t have a lot of holes, they are getting older; this infusion of youth should provide the foundation for the beginning of the next decade.

Chicago Bears

Regardless of what they did, landing Jay Cutler for this year’s No. 18 pick made the draft a winner. Cutler is heads and shoulders above the two prospects taken in this draft and only now entering his prime. They also grabbed a few other areas of need (DE Jarron Gilbert) and picked up a receiver (WR Joaquin Iglesias) for Cutler to throw to.

New York Giants

The Giants needed a few more guys on the outside and were able to land 6’2″ Nicks in round one and 6’6″ Barden in round three.

The latter will take some time to develop but the Giants love his upside—especially in the red zone. Other than that, it was solid all around and they picked up depth and the RB, OT, TE and LB position in round’s two through four.

New York Jets

The Jets made the boldest move by trading up to pick No. 5 for Mark Sanchez. GM Tannebaum is in love with QBs and before Saturday, the Jets were without one.

Sanchez already finds himself in a better situation than Stafford because the Jets possess a strong defense and running game, two crucial components when bringing along a young QB.

In round three, they moved up to grab RB Shonn Greene. With RB Thomas Jones running his mouth of late for a new contract, perhaps the Jets plan to move the vet and go with Greene and Washington.

If there was a downside to this draft for the Jets it’s the fact that they were left with only three picks. Champions are built through the draft so if they miss on the QB, this will put them way back.

Green Bay Packers

Landing B.J. Raji was a stroke of good fortune for a team that was consistently beaten off the line in 2008. Raji will fill a huge hole in the middle and allow those LBers (Barnett, Hawk and Mathews) to attack.

Speaking of Mathews, the Packers traded back into the first round to select him and this guy’s motor never stops. And oh yeah, he’s got pretty good bloodlines.

The rest of the draft was solid – something we’ve come to expect from GM Ted Thompson – and Green Bay could be ready to take a big step forward in the NFC Central in 2009.

San Francisco 49ers

Thanks to an unconscious Al Davis, and he must’ve been for taking Heyward-Bey at pick No. 7, WR Michael Crabtree fell to the 10th pick where the Niners wasted little time in scooping him up.

They then dealt their second and fourth for Carolina’s No. 1 in 2010, and used their third and 5th on a RB and QB. While they didn’t address a glaring need on the defensive line, they did add depth and quality to the offensive side of the football and provided they get decent QB play, should be interesting to watch on offense in 2009.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins loaded up at the defensive back position (see the receivers in AFC East other than the Jets to know why) and drafted WVU QB Pat White in round two. The Fins rejuvenated the Wild Cat formation in 2008 and you can bet they had this in mind when they grabbed the versatile White here.

Later on they addressed the receiver position and if there’s one thing we know about Parcells, it’s that he knows how to draft. He found good value throughout and the Dolphins have become a respectable franchise once again in only two short years.

Indianapolis Colts

The top choice of RB Donald Brown was surprising but they did need a complementary back to Addai who can’t seem to stay healthy. And Brown is a good player. Second round pick DT Fili Moala was a great pick for a major area of need, the interior line.

The Colts had a difficult time stopping the run in 2008 and Moala is a good start towards getting that corrected. Throughout the rest of the draft, they continued to build up that defense and addressed a few other areas on offense, receiver and offensive lineman. And once again, Polian did a nice job in the draft.

Atlanta Falcons

Grabbing Tony Gonzalez for a second rounder was the missing piece to the skill positions on offense, and DT Peria Jerry was just what the doctor ordered in round one. The Falcons were weak along the interior of the line and this move will shore it up.

Later on they grabbed a young safety who should make the transition from Lawyer Milloy and easy one.

Others who did well include the Bengals, Texans, and Ravens.

The Falcons made a move yesterday which will shake up their draft strategy on Saturday.

By giving up a 2nd round pick in 2010, they acquired 10-time Pro Bowl TE Tony Gonzalez from the Chiefs.

So much for our mock draft which had Oklahoma St. TE Brandon Pettigrew going to the dirty birds.

It’s no secret that Gonzo’s been lobbying for a trade to a contender since the last season. But former GM, Carl Peterson, were never able to get the value they demanded in return.

Falcons GM, Thomas Dimitroff, took care of that though.

By surrendering a 2nd round pick next year, which should be higher than this year’s because the Falcons schedule is much more difficult than in 2008, the Chiefs will continue to stock pile picks and build their football team through the draft.

And in two or three year’s time, they’ll be a force once again in the AFC West – and perhaps the entire AFC.

As to the Falcons, they made themselves a lot better on offense now.

Gonzalez is still only 33, and showed no signs of slowing down in ’08 when he put up monster numbers:  96 catches for 10 TD. And it was mostly Tyler Thigpen delivering the football his way; now he gets Matt Ryan.

The move is extremely smart and does three things for the Falcons: first, it allows them to attack the middle of the field; second, it’ll open up new holes for Turner to run through as the safety must follow Gonzalez; and third, and again dealing with the safety, by forcing that safety to shadow Gonzalez, it’ll create a lot of one on one match-ups for star receiver Roddy White.  He should be able to exploit them and get deep consistently.

As for how this changes their draft strategy, look for them to target their defense now – either a linebacker or defensive lineman.

In other news, the Braylon Edwards to NY Giants trade talks have cooled to a Tony Romo start in December.

And with good reason.

Reports are coming out that not only did the Browns covet the Giants top pick, No. 29, but they also wanted promising defensive end, Mathias Kiwanuka as a part of the deal.

Is it amateur hour at the negotiation table?

If this were the off season after 2007, it’d make more sense. Braylon was coming off an 80-catch, 16 TD season and his stock was through the roof.

But certainly not now. Not after a 50-plus catch season with 3 TDs.

No matter how much the Browns try and pump value into Edwards – and there’s still a lot of value, there’s just not as much as the Browns seem to think they’ll get for him.

Let’s just say it’s similar to companies trying to raise VC funding right now… valuations are down across the board.

But don’t completely rule out a deal just yet.  If the Browns don’t play their hand right in this situation, they’ll probably get a whole lot more than they bargain for.

Edwards, who’s made it known that he desires to leave, has no intention of signing a long term extension.

So he’ll most likely force the Browns to franchise him after the 2009 campaign, out of fear of receiving nothing in return.

And then in their attempts to deal him, if the price is too high and no one comes calling, it never turns out well with No. 1 receivers.

Can you say Randy Moss in Oakland? Ocho Cinco in Cincy?