Must Start

Seattle, New England, Detroit, and Buffalo

Tier 1

Baltimore Ravens vs. Hou – Houston is down to its 3rd QB.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Sea – This will be a low scoring game.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Was – It’s RGIII they are facing.

Green Bay Packers vs. TB – Look for a bounce back against the lowly Bucs.

Tier 2

Denver Broncos vs. Cin – The Bengals have been abysmal in Primetime.

San Francisco 49ers vs. SD – There is little to play for but expect the 49ers players to put up 8-11 points.

Bust

Miami Dolphins vs. Min – Teddy Bridgewater is improving and the Dolphins are struggling.

Fantasy Sleeper

Carolina Panthers vs. Cle – Manziel will have plenty of bumps in the road early on.

Must Start

Seahawks, Bengals, Lions and Chargers

Tier 1

Denver Broncos vs. Arz – Look for Denver to force multiple turnovers at home.

Detroit Lions vs. Buf – The Lions will get after Orton in his 1st game starting.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Stl – The Rams still don’t have a QB.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Hou – They are an appealing option against Fitzpatrick.

Green Bay Packers vs. Min – Peppers and Co. will put up 10 FFL points.

Tier 2

New York Giants vs. Atl – Look for the Giants to get after Ryan on Sunday.

St Louis Rams vs. Phi – The Rams strong DL can overpower the Eagles ailing offensive line. That will force the Eagles into a few mistakes.

Bust

New England Patriots vs. Cin – The Bengals are built to give the Patriots problems.

Fantasy Sleeper

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jax – The risk of garbage time points is real, but the Steelers should dominate this offense.

Top pick

1. Green Bay Packers vs. NYJ – They can’t afford to fall to 0-2. Lucky for them, they face the Jets in their home opener. Expect the Packers to get back on track and win by a TD.

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2. Tennessee Titans vs. Dal – There is just too many negatives on the defensive side of the ball for  Dallas now. Ken Whisenhunt will move to 2-0 as the Titans move the ball at will.

3. Denver Broncos vs. KC – It’s going to be a long season for the Chiefs. They’ve lost a few key defenders for the season after week 1 and enter Denver shorthanded. Look for the Broncos to roll the Chiefs by two TDs.

11. Houston Texans – They should bounce back. The D never had a chance last year with the offense playing so ineptly.

12. Baltimore Ravens – This is a fantasy sleeper and could end up top 6. Another D/ST that was hurt by horrible offensive play.

13. Pittsburgh Steelers – They’ve invested in a lot of young talent that past few years. Expect Lebeau to get the most out of it.

14. Detroit Lions – This unit was undisciplined a year ago. The new regime will have the front 7 humming.

15. Cleveland Browns – They were a very solid D/ST in 2013. A better offense will help it out.

16. New Orleans Saints – Rob Ryan’s attacking D yielded excellent returns in year 1.

17. New York Giants – The Giants changed their philosophy and focused on LBer in the offseason. It will pay dividends.

18. Philadelphia Eagles – They came on strong over the 2nd half of the season. Some solid young talent on that side of the ball.

19. Jacksonville Jaguars – They are a deep fantasy sleeper. Gus Bradley has built up a solid DL and has a scheme that will force turnovers.

20. Oakland Raiders – They have a chance to be another nice sleeper. Playing Denver twice a year is no fun, but they’ve added playmakers to this side of the ball.

Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) vs. Den – I’m not entirely sure how Denver is the favorite although the “Peyton Manning mania” set in immediately after Championship Sunday. The Seahawks opened up as favorites but then saw the betting line turn and now they’re underdogs.

Let’s look at the game which features the NFL’s best offense vs the NFL’s best D.

When the Broncos have the ball, look for Peyton Manning to run a spread offense and dink and dunk to his receivers. This will act as a rushing attack because Knowshon Moreno will not be able to get going against the Seahawks front.

However, the Broncos will not want or be able to abandon the run because Seattle’s attacking D will make Manning’s life miserable if it turns Denver one dimensional. The two wild cards will be WR Eric Decker and TE Julius Thomas.

While WR DeMaryius Thomas is a tremendous receiver, CB Richard Sherman should be able to contain him. Welker will be contained for the most part, too, as Seattle is excellent covering the middle of the field. Decker could make some plays on the outside as could Julius Thomas, but that will come when they move the TE outside on an island. Seattle’s safeties Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas are the best duo in the game. Look for Denver to put up between 14-20 points on the day.

When Seattle has the ball, look for them to pound Marshawn Lynch mercilessly into Denver’s D. And look for him to have success. The Seahawks OL is big and matches up well with Denver’s front. This will set up the pass. QB Russell Wilson’s struggled lately, but he won’t be asked to put the offense on his shoulders.

When he throws the ball, it will come off play action and by moving him around, and he’ll find some success on the intermediate to deeper routes. Also, expect slant patterns mixed in to keep the chains moving. The Wild Card is Percy Harvin, but even 30-40 yards from him on a few plays will add another dimension to the Seahawks. All in all it’s not flashy, but this offensive unit is physical and efficient.

When the clock hits 0:00, look for Seattle to win by 4-10 points. Super Bowls tend to remain closer in our era of parity, but Seattle is the better and more complete team. And high flying passing games haven’t had much success in the big game facing dominant defenses.

The Seahawks are bullies and will wear this Denver team down late 24-17 or 27-17.

Seattle is solid on the money line (+115) too.

1. Denver Broncos (+1.5) vs. Min – Forget the Tebow magic, which oh by the way has led Denver to win five of their last six games, it’s the defensive turnaround which is most responsible for this hot stretch.

Led by LB Von Miller, Denver has become a respectable unit overnight.

The Vikings may or may not have RB Adrian Peterson back for this one but in the end it will not matter. Denver will cover the point spread and pull out the win on Sunday.

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2. San Francisco 49ers (-13.5) vs. Stl – It’d be a minor miracle for the Rams to keep this one close. They’re decimated up and down the roster and especially along the offensive line. That’s not a recipe for success against a powerful defense like the 49ers in their home park. On top of that, SF is on 10 days rest and will roll on Sunday.

3. New Orleans Saints (-9) vs. Det- The Lions are in a tailspin and without their best player defensive player (DT Ndamukong Suh) for this one. Expect Drew Brees and Co. to take advantage of his absence and light up the tote board on Sunday Night.

4. Arizona Cardinals (+4.5) vs. Dal – See Money Line Bet.

The Rest

Washington Redskins (+3) vs. NYJ – The Jets are far too inconsistent to be a favorite on the road. The Skins are coming off an impressive win over the Seahawks on the road and match-up well against New York. We see them keeping things close  and a late win wouldn’t be surprising.

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) vs. Pit – Seven points is a lot to give a team like the Bengals who seemingly keep things close every week. The possibility of S Troy Polamalu missing the game with a concussion makes the Bengals that much more attractive. They’ll also have WR AJ Green in this one.

Chicago Bears (-7.5) vs. KC – The defense alone should allow the Bears to win this by more than 7.5. Both QBs will struggle so look for Matt Forte and the defense to lead the Bears to a double digit victory.

Money Line Bet

Arizona Cardinals (+180) vs. Dal – The Cowboys historically play poorly in Arizona. And although they’re coming in on a winning streak, the past two have been by the slimmest of margins against not very good teams.

The Cardinals D is better than people think and they should have QB Kevin Kolb back for this one. Look for Arizona to once again rise up against the Cowboys and pull off the mini upset to win the money line bet.

Image by Getty Images via @daylifeTop Pick

Top Pick

1. San Francisco 49ers vs. Stl – The Rams chances of upsetting the 49ers are smaller than the wealthiest percentage of people in this country (.01%). The Niners are on 10 days rest, at home, and virtually everyone is healthy.

The same can’t be said for the Rams. Everything that could go wrong in 2011 has gone wrong and that will continue once again this week.

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2. Denver Broncos vs. Min – Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos are a great story and they’ve won five of their last six games. That moves to six out of seven when they head to Minnesota in Week 13.

The Vikings may or may not have RB Adrian Peterson back but it will not matter. Denver is playing too well defensively and Tebow is making enough plays late to secure the win.

3. Atlanta Falcons vs. Hou – The ride was nice in Houston while it lasted, but without Matt Schaub the party will end sooner than expected. And against good teams they will not be able to win with Tyler Yates at the helm. Look for the Falcons to stack the box against RB Arian Foster and win this by at least a TD.

Best Bet

1. Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) vs. Tampa Buccaneers

The Seahawks were annihilated vs. the Texans last week yet are the best bet this week. How? Because they’re a much better team at home and are welcoming the 1-12 (0-6 road) Bucs to town.  Seattle will control this game offensively and use the legs of Justin Forsett to wear down the Bucs defense late.

Rookie QB Josh Freeman has been a turnover machine the past few weeks and Seattle’s D will capitalize on a few of his mistakes here.

Next In Line

2. Kansas City Chiefs (-2) vs. Cleveland Browns

This is likely the most unwatchable game on the schedule except for those with money on the line… both teams have been horrible lately outside of Cleveland’s upset of the Steelers last Thursday. The Chiefs have suffered offensively during Dwayne Bowe’s absence but he returns on Sunday. This will help out Cassel who’ll have more options in the passing game. The Browns offense is inept as a group and Kansas City is still a difficult place for opponents to play.

3. Baltimore Ravens (-11) vs. Chicago Bears

The Bears season has been a complete wash and Cutler has struggled without the necessary talent surrounding him. They also travel poorly (1-5 on road). The Ravens are still in the thick of the playoff race and we like Baltimore to pour it on this Sunday. Look for a lot of Ray Rice offensively and for the Ravens D to get after Cutler and force him into sacks and turnovers.

4. Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5) vs. San Diego Chargers

See Money Line analysis.

Others We Like

Arizona Cardinals (-12) vs. Detroit Lions

The Cardinals on the road in 2009 have been phenomenal. They’re 5-2 and one of those losses came when Kurt Warner was out. The other came on Monday against the 49ers, who have owned them recently. They’ll get back to their winning ways with a romp in Detroit. Warner and Co. will pick apart the Lions D and Detroit is looking like they’ll be forced to go with Daunte Culpepper at QB.

New Orleans Saints (-7) vs. Dallas Cowboys

This will probably be the last game of the regular season that the Saints get revved up for and look for them to put a show Saturday Night in the Big Easy. No one to date has stopped Drew Brees and Co. at home and the Cowboys won’t be the first. Dallas is also playing on edge after hearing all the “can’t win in December talk” and will lose in by at least 10.

Denver Broncos (-14) vs. Oakland Raiders

The Broncos have laid a few eggs in recent years when hosting the Raiders as big time favorites, but we don’t see that happening again. The main reason is this year’s team has a defense. They’ll get after Charlie Frye and make his life miserable, forcing turnovers and a lot three and outs. On top of that, the offense is playing well and Orton and his skill players are clicking at the right time. Look for a rout on Sunday.

Money Line

Cincinnati Bengals (+220) vs. San Diego Chargers

This game has huge playoff ramifications as the team that wins puts itself in the driver’s seat for the No. 2 seed in the AFC.

Cincinnati will be playing this one with a heavy heart after the death of WR Chris Henry on Thursday.

The Bengals actually play a style of defense which matches up very well against San Diego. The Chargers are excellent at passing the ball but the Bengals feature one of the top rated pass defenses in the NFL. Their CB duo, Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall, is one of the best in the business. The Bengals stop the run fairly well but the Chargers don’t feature much of a ground attack, so expect most of their attention to be on Phillip Rivers.

Offensively, the Bengals have been in a slump but have a chance to get back on track here. Look for them to pound the ball with Cedric Benson as the Chargers still have issues stopping the run. They’re much better than they were earlier in the season but still vulnerable against better running attacks.

In the passing game, look for Palmer to execute a safer attack to Ochocinco, Coles and Caldwell. The Chargers are good at preventing the long ball so we expect more of an underneath passing game.

When it’s all said and done, look for the Bengals, rallying around the death of Chris Henry, to pull out a tough road win.

1. Indianapolis Colts (-7) vs. Denver Broncos

With a win on Sunday, the Colts will wrap up home field advantage in the AFC. The Broncos, who are still fighting for a Wild Card, have beaten the Giants and Chiefs in consecutive weeks but will find that the Colts are a different beast.

Look for Peyton Manning to have success through the air and force Denver into a shootout, which is not their style of play. Defensively, Freeney and Co. will shut down Kyle Orton en route to an easy win in Week 14.

Next In Line

2. Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings

Although Minnesota is a tough place to play, it’s tough to bet against the Bengals in a big game situation this year. They’ve won every single one they’ve played in. And still vying for the No. 2 seed in the conference, expect Cincinnati to pull out a close victory on the road behind the legs of Cedric Benson and arm of Carson Palmer. The loss of MLB EJ Henderson to the Vikings’ defense will be difficult to overcome.

3. New England Patriots (-13.5) vs. Carolina Panthers

The Patriots are finally back to a place they can win: home. They’re 6-0 in New England and just 1-5 on the road. The Panthers will likely have to go with Matt Moore at QB and even the beleaguered Patriots defense can handle this assignment. Offensively, look for Brady and Co. to put between 25 to 30 on the board and wear the Panthers down late.

4. Miami Dolphins (+3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

See Money Line Analysis

Others We Like

Dallas Cowboys (-3) vs. San Diego Chargers

The Chargers are on a roll right now but have mostly feasted off a soft schedule during their seven game winning streak. And while the Cowboys certainly have issues of their own – can’t win in December, this is a must-win game for them. Their ability to run the ball will end up being the deciding factor in the game.

Philadelphia Eagles (+1) vs. New York Giants

The Giants potentially saved their season with their win over Dallas in Week 13. And while they did a lot of good things in that game, they’ve still got a number of issues rushing the passer and getting off the field on 3rd down. Andy Reid always has his teams prepared against New York and will attack the Giants porous pass defense with the Eagles talented young pass catchers (DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek).

Also, the +1 point spread suggests that the odds makers think Philly will win; home teams are usually alloted a 3 point spread if the book makers think the game is even.

Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers hopes for the post season will come to an end on Monday Night when the Cards head out to San Francisco. Kurt Warner is playing extremely well and Fitzgerald and Boldin will be too much for the Niners secondary. Defensively, the Cards will take Frank Gore out of the game and force Alex Smith to beat them.

Money Line

Miami Dolphins (+120) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags are the most unimpressive 7-5 team in the NFL.  Outside of Maurice Jones-Drew and the running game, they don’t do anything particularly well; the passing game is inconsistent and the defense is soft against both the run and pass.

The Dolphins are by no means a powerhouse, but they’ve won three of their last four (including a 22-21 win over the Patriots on Sunday) to move to .500. Chad Henne is slowly getting better and the improvement to the offensive side of the ball reflects his growth as a QB.

Offensively, Miami will focus on the running game with Ricky Williams to set-up the pass. Look for Henne to then execute a safe passing attack designed to keep the clock/chains moving and wear Jacksonville down. Miami will score at least 21.

Defensively, Miami will focus its efforts on stopping the run, which it’s quite good at. They’ll force David Garrard to beat them and he’ll struggle against an improving secondary.

When clock hits 0:00, Miami will win 21-17 to move even with the Jags at 7-6.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers will probably shake up its lineup after the disappointing loss to the Oakland Raiders. The team knows it’s now or never in 2009, so expect a spirited effort on Thursday Night with multiple turnovers and sacks.

2. New York Jets vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Jets defense has turned in back-to-back impressive fantasy football performances and this is another tasty matchup for the unit. Rookie QB Josh Freeman tossed 5 picks on Sunday and the Jets have one of the better secondaries in the league. Look for a low scoring affair with multiple turnovers.

3. New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons

If Chris Redman is the starter, the Saints D will dominate the Falcons. Especially if Michael Turner is forced to sit again. Regardless, the Saints should be able to jump out to a commanding lead and turn the Falcons one dimensional, which is when the sacks and turnovers begin…

4. Baltimore Ravens vs. Detroit Lions

The weather should be just right for the Ravens D on Sunday. The Lions, a dome team, will find moving the ball a bit more difficult in the cold and wind and we expect Ray Lewis and Co. to have a dominating effort after their poor showing on Monday Night.

Sleepers

1. New England Patriots vs. Carolina Panthers

The embattled Patriots defense comes into this game after two poor performances. Their lack of a pass rush against better teams exposes their pass defense. Carolina is not one of those “better” teams, so expect the Pats to be a nice fantasy sleeper play in Week 14.

2. Washington Redskins vs. Oakland Raiders

The Skins gave up 33 points to the Saints on Sunday but these are the Raiders, who have been inept offensively outside of a few recent games. Look for the Skins corners to do a better job of containing Louis Murphy and the passing game and the D should be able to keep points off the board.

Others We Like

Tennessee Titans vs. St. Louis Rams

The Titans playoff hopes may have been dashed on Sunday but they’re technically still alive. The Rams, outside of Steven Jackson, have very little in the way of an offense and the Titans will put on an impressive performance at home.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos

The Broncos offense has feasted on a slumping Giants unit and the Chiefs the past two games but will have a substantially more difficult time moving the ball against Indy. Look for Freeney and Co. to sack Orton and force turnovers.

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers

The Cardinals defense is playing strong as a unit and matchup well against the 49ers. They’re excellent at stopping the run and their young corners have stepped up their respective games. Look for Dockett and Co. to have a big evening and force Smith into sacks and a few turnovers.

A Few More

Minnesota Vikings vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Minnesota Vikings