What was initially described as a minor ankle injury is really a torn ligament, and the pass rushing specialist’s availability, or if he plays, effectiveness, is in doubt.

How does this affect your betting strategy?

If Freeney is unable to go or limited, the Colts will have very few answers to stopping the Saints passing attack.

It used to be that when S Bob Sanders went down, the run defense disappeared. Well, Jim Caldwell and Co. have shored up that part of the defense and the Colts were able to absorb the star studded, but often injured Safety’s loss and play respectable run defense.

But losing Freeney would be particularly big because the Saints are a pass happy team. The Colts would be unable to generate a consistent pass rush with their front four and Drew Brees is as good as anyone when he has time to deliver the ball.

He’ll carve up the Colts secondary and trade score for score with Peyton Manning.

In fact, the loss of No. 93 would actually tip the scales in the Saints favor.

And the reason is we expect Gregg Williams defense to generate more of a pass rush on Peyton than Caldwell’s will get on Brees.

We’ll have our full analysis later in the week, but at this point, with the new news on Freeney, we’re leaning towards taking the Saints (+6), the Saints on the money line (+170), and the over (56.5).

While we like them at this number with their roster as is, word came out yesterday that their best defensive player, DE Dwight Freeney, had an ankle injury much worse than the team was letting on.

When the injury occurred late in the AFC Championship Game it didn’t look good at all.

He came down awkwardly on his ankle and immediately headed towards the sideline.

His day was done at that point thanks to the Colts commanding lead.

But if he’s forced to either miss the Super Bowl or is unable to be his normal self due to the injury, this impacts the game – and betting strategy – tremendously.

If either of the above scenarios are realized, the Saints will then shift help over to Robert Mathis’s side, who by the way is helped greatly by the attention paid towards Freeney, and the Colts pass rush will be effectively neutralized.

They’d then have to resort to more blitzes in an attempt to pressure Drew Brees and throw off his rhythm.

This scenario wouldn’t be favorable for Indianapolis. When Brees has time to throw, he’s deadly. He’ll distribute the ball around the field and pick apart the Colts secondary.

The Saints would also be able to go toe to toe with the Colts offense and keep things interesting until the end.

So keep an eye on his injury status prior to placing your bets.

As said in an earlier article, his is the one injury, outside of Peyton Manning, which could derail Indianapolis’s chances of winning the Super Bowl.

If he can go and play at a high level, we still like the Colts -6; if he can’t, take the Saints (+6) and the (+180) money line.

1. New York Jets (+7.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts

Sometimes it’s too difficult to tempt fate. This is one of those times. While we actually think the Colts will win a close one, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where they’ll win by more than 8. In fact, with the way the Jets are playing, both on defense as well as running the ball, we think it’ll be decided by less than four points.

And the reason for that is the Jets possess the most aggressive defense in the Playoffs and Peyton Manning struggles when he has pressure in his face. He gets happy feet and his throws are erratic.

New York will keep everything in front of them and bring waves after No. 18 to disrupt his timing.

Offensively, the Jets will continue to pound the ball in an attempt to shorten the game and keep Manning and Co. cold on the sidelines.

The 7.5 point spread is too much. Take the Jets plus the points and if you believe in fate, and that the stars have aligned to have the team the Colts could’ve eliminated (in Week 16) come back to knock them out of the Playoffs, bet the +250 money line too.

Next In Line

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) vs. New Orleans Saints

The only reason Brett Favre came back was to have a chance at another ring. He’s 60 minutes away from realizing that goal.

While the Saints might possess a bit more potency on offense than the Vikings do, Minnesota is superior on defense.

And we think the defense will be the difference. The Saints are nearly unbeatable when they go up and down the field and score at will. Not only does it demoralize the opposing defense, it puts intense pressure on the offense to match them score for score. But we don’t see this happening against Leslie Frazier’s defense.

Instead, expect the Vikings to be able to move the ball on both the ground and through the air against the Saints and for its defense, once it has a lead, to pin their ears back and come after Brees.

The final score will be close, but take the 3.5 points as well as the money line (+150).

The story book ending Favre’s been looking for is very close to being realized.

Beginning with their 24-17 upset of the then 13-0 Saints, the Cowboys are on a four game winning streak and peaking at the right time.

The same can’t be said for the Vikings. Although they demolished the Giants 44-7 in Week 17, let’s not forget that New York had packed its bag for the winter vacation a week earlier.

Minnesota, after beginning the season 11-1, stumbled badly to end the season and only received the No. 2 seed after the Eagles choked away their chance in the final week of the season.

Onto the match-up:

When the Cowboys have the ball, they’ll come out throwing. The Vikings possess a formidable front four so a quick passing game neutralizes the effectiveness and Jared Allen and Co.

It’ll also set up the running game which the Cowboys will certainly make use of.

Once a dominating group against the run, the loss of E J Henderson to the middle of the defense has negatively impacted the unit’s ability to stop the ground game. Both Chris Wells and Jonathan Stewart had a lot of success in consecutive weeks.

Look for Felix Jones, Marion Barber and Tashard Choice to all play key roles in the running game on Saturday.

And once they begin to find success, and force the Vikings Safeties up, Tony Romo will key on Jason Witten, Miles Austin and Roy Williams. The injury to Antoine Winfield has affected his coverage skills and teams are attacking his side (of the field) frequently.

When Minnesota has the ball, it all starts with Adrian Peterson and the rushing attack in this one.

The ground game fell off precipitously late in the season and it’s a must that it gets going here. If it doesn’t, it’s going to be a long day for the Vikings.

The Cowboys possess two of the best pass rushing players left in the playoffs (DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer), and the Vikings can ill afford to have Favre dropping back in the face of constant pressure.

So look for a lot of No. 28.

However, in order to win, the Vikings will need to do their damage in the passing game.

The running game should provide the necessary balance to make the play-action effective, and that’s where Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin will come into play.

Both are big play receivers – Harvin with his speed, Rice with his size and route running ability – and both will have an opportunity to pick up big yards after the catch.

And once in the red zone, keep an eye on TE Visanthe Schiancoe because Favre loves to look his way near the goal line.

When this one is all said and done, expect the Cowboys, currently 2.5 point underdogs, to prevail with a 27-17 win.

The Super Bowl is the only reason Favre came back, and he’s put his team into a position to reach its goal, but the Vikings are going in the wrong direction at the wrong time.

The offensive line is not creating holes for AD, it’s not pass blocking for Favre as well as earlier on, and the defense has been average since the loss of E.J. Henderson.

And that’s not the recipe for success against a surging Cowboys team playing great defense.

From that point on it was only a matter of running out the clock; the Pats were demoralized and stood no chance of coming back against the Ravens ferocious defense.

The Colts enter this match-up still feeling the heat from their decision to forgo the opportunity of an undefeated season in Week 16. That decision means that it’s Super Bowl or bust in 2009.

Regardless of what Bill Polian says, and while having the Super Bowl as his No. 1 priority is certainly correct, his nonchalant attitude towards history could come back to haunt him in the end.

Onto the match-up:

When the Ravens are on offense, look for them to pound the rock with Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. They’ve had all sorts of success running behind their talented offensive line, and will need to do so on Saturday.

If Joe Flacco has a repeat performance of last Sunday (4 – 10  for 34 yards and one INT), they’ve got no chance.

So look for Cam Cameron to call running plays until the Colts show they can stop it. If they can’t, Baltimore will shorten the game and keep the high powered Colts offense on the sidelines and cold.

The Ravens will try and keep Flacco in manageable passing situations at all costs, ie 3rd and 4, 2nd and 5, etc.

They don’t want to have him passing out of 3rd and long against a very opportunistic defense.

So look for a short, safe  (passing) attack, with the most potent weapon in the passing game being screens and swing passes to Ray Rice out of the backfield. He’s deadly on those and can take it to the house.

When they look to go down the field, Mason will be the top target and Heap will be the No. 1 focus in the red zone.

When the Colts are on offense, everything runs through Peyton Manning. In order to beat Baltimore’s defense, he’ll need to execute a quick passing game and quicken the tempo of the offense to offset the Ravens’ pressure defense.

So Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie and Dallas Clark can expect to see plenty of balls come their way.

And when S Ed Reed creeps up to take away Clark over the middle, look for Manning to pop a long TD to Wayne or Garcon as the Ravens are vulnerable to the deep ball.

Once the passing game has found its groove, expect a healthy dose of Joseph Addai.

We saw how difficult it is for high powered offenses to succeed on the passing game alone in last week’s game; the Pats were manhandled because they were predictable.

Addai will have some success, mostly on draws, but he’ll be used primarily as a receiver out of the backfield and to keep the Ravens’ front seven honest.

The first time these teams played the Colts were fortunate to win 17-15. Flacco was picked late as the Ravens were driving for a GW FG.

This time will be close as well, with the Colts pulling away late to win 24-14.

While the Ravens are certainly capable of winning this game, there’s only one way in which they’ll be able to do so: get a lead and run the ball.

If they can, they’ll have a chance; if they don’t, Flacco and Co. will not be able to carry this team to the win.

The 6.5 point spread is a good bet as well.

In their game last Sunday, Dallas smothered Philadelphia’s offense and routed them 24-0. While Philly certainly came to play, having the No. 2 seed and a 1st round bye in their sights, it’s highly likely that after the Cowboys jumped to a 17-0 1st half lead, Reid turned things off and decided not to show everything before the Wild Card Round.

But aside from the fact that it’s very difficult to beat a team three times in a single season, something which the Cowboys are attempting to do, there’s not a lot of reason to believe that the Eagles are going to win this game.

Now to the rematch and how we see things playing out on Saturday.

When the Cowboys are on offense, expect them to run the ball extensively with Marion Barber and Felix Jones. They’re able to run at will because Philly is severely lacking at the Linebacker position. Look no further than Jeremiah Trotter to realize the truth in that statement.

So DC Sean McDermott has to pick his poison. If he opts to bring a heavy blitz package or keep an extra man in the box, he leaves his CBs in man coverage. And for as talented as Asante Samuel and Sheldon Brown are, they’ve yet to prove they can handle Miles Austin and Co.

So look for the Cowboys to continue to run the ball which will have two effects: it will wear out the Eagles smaller defense and set up the play-action pass for Romo, who’s deadly when given time.

When the Eagles are on offense, they’ll need to place more of an emphasis on the running game or they’re in trouble. In last week’s loss, the pass to run ratio was once again lopsided (10 rushes and 36 pass attempts).

If they can run the ball 45% of the time, not only will they pick up important yards on the ground, it’ll also set up the passing game to TE Brent Celek and make WRs Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson that much more effective. Without it, the Cowboys can keep an extra man up top which limits Jackson’s effectiveness.

In their two games this year, No. 10 did nothing.

The threat of a running game also keeps DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer off McNabb as the Eagles play calling won’t be so predictable.

Unfortunately for Philly, Reid’s a creature of habit, and that means he’ll employ a pass heavy attack which will limit McNabb and the offense’s effectiveness and end up being the Eagles undoing.

While it won’t be as lopsided as Week 17, expect a hard fought 24-17 win by Dallas to advance to Round Two.

They’ll also cover the 4 point spread the bookmakers currently have them at.

A few things to consider when analyzing this game before making your pick:

* The Jets needed last week’s game badly to make the Playoffs; the Bengals didn’t.

* The Bengals, with a win, would have secured the 3rd seed and faced the Ravens for the third time this season.  They’ve won the first two and beating a team three times in one season is something very difficult to accomplish.

* The Bengals sat Cedric Benson and a few of their other key defensive players.

* The Jets showed everything in their arsenal (offensively and defensively) while the Bengals showed very little.

Now to the rematch and how we see things shaping up on Saturday.

When the Bengals are on offense, look for Palmer to feed the ball to Cedric Benson between 25 and 30 times. It is imperative that the Bengals can get a solid running game going because their pass offense has been unable to carry them over the last six weeks of the season. What’s becoming more apparent is that when the late Chris Henry was placed on IR, the threat of a deep passing game went with him.

Aside from Ochocinco, who’s now slowed by a knee injury, Coles and Caldwell have failed to step up and this has defenses shifting focus to his side of the ball. The Jets have the luxury of being able to put CB Darrelle Revis on No. 85 in single coverage so the other receivers will need to step up and make plays when the opportunity presents itself.

When the Jets are on offense, expect them to follow a similar blueprint to the one they used in their blowout victory in Week 17. They will run the ball with Thomas Jones and Shonne Greene and hope that they can continue to pick up 1st downs in bunches.

But they’ll find things aren’t as easy this week when Mike Zimmer actually prepares his defense to take away the Jets lone offensive weapon: the running game.

Zimmer will keep his talented corners on an island against Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery and they’ll be able to lock them down. He’ll then bring extra help from the Safety position up to the line in order to render the Jets running game ineffective.

The lack of a running threat will induce Mark Sanchez into mistakes because he’s shown time and time again that he is not ready to carry this offense as a rookie.

This fact might have us seeing Brad Smith run the Wild Cat more frequently but although it caused some confusion and led to a score last Sunday, you can bet  the Bengals defenders will have things cleaned up by Saturday.

When the clock reaches 0:00,  expect Cincinnati to pull out a close 17-13 win. They’ll play exceptional defense and force Sanchez into a few turnovers which will be the deciding factor in the game.

The O/U of 34.5 is a good bet too.

Best Bet

1. Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) vs. Tampa Buccaneers

The Seahawks were annihilated vs. the Texans last week yet are the best bet this week. How? Because they’re a much better team at home and are welcoming the 1-12 (0-6 road) Bucs to town.  Seattle will control this game offensively and use the legs of Justin Forsett to wear down the Bucs defense late.

Rookie QB Josh Freeman has been a turnover machine the past few weeks and Seattle’s D will capitalize on a few of his mistakes here.

Next In Line

2. Kansas City Chiefs (-2) vs. Cleveland Browns

This is likely the most unwatchable game on the schedule except for those with money on the line… both teams have been horrible lately outside of Cleveland’s upset of the Steelers last Thursday. The Chiefs have suffered offensively during Dwayne Bowe’s absence but he returns on Sunday. This will help out Cassel who’ll have more options in the passing game. The Browns offense is inept as a group and Kansas City is still a difficult place for opponents to play.

3. Baltimore Ravens (-11) vs. Chicago Bears

The Bears season has been a complete wash and Cutler has struggled without the necessary talent surrounding him. They also travel poorly (1-5 on road). The Ravens are still in the thick of the playoff race and we like Baltimore to pour it on this Sunday. Look for a lot of Ray Rice offensively and for the Ravens D to get after Cutler and force him into sacks and turnovers.

4. Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5) vs. San Diego Chargers

See Money Line analysis.

Others We Like

Arizona Cardinals (-12) vs. Detroit Lions

The Cardinals on the road in 2009 have been phenomenal. They’re 5-2 and one of those losses came when Kurt Warner was out. The other came on Monday against the 49ers, who have owned them recently. They’ll get back to their winning ways with a romp in Detroit. Warner and Co. will pick apart the Lions D and Detroit is looking like they’ll be forced to go with Daunte Culpepper at QB.

New Orleans Saints (-7) vs. Dallas Cowboys

This will probably be the last game of the regular season that the Saints get revved up for and look for them to put a show Saturday Night in the Big Easy. No one to date has stopped Drew Brees and Co. at home and the Cowboys won’t be the first. Dallas is also playing on edge after hearing all the “can’t win in December talk” and will lose in by at least 10.

Denver Broncos (-14) vs. Oakland Raiders

The Broncos have laid a few eggs in recent years when hosting the Raiders as big time favorites, but we don’t see that happening again. The main reason is this year’s team has a defense. They’ll get after Charlie Frye and make his life miserable, forcing turnovers and a lot three and outs. On top of that, the offense is playing well and Orton and his skill players are clicking at the right time. Look for a rout on Sunday.

Money Line

Cincinnati Bengals (+220) vs. San Diego Chargers

This game has huge playoff ramifications as the team that wins puts itself in the driver’s seat for the No. 2 seed in the AFC.

Cincinnati will be playing this one with a heavy heart after the death of WR Chris Henry on Thursday.

The Bengals actually play a style of defense which matches up very well against San Diego. The Chargers are excellent at passing the ball but the Bengals feature one of the top rated pass defenses in the NFL. Their CB duo, Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall, is one of the best in the business. The Bengals stop the run fairly well but the Chargers don’t feature much of a ground attack, so expect most of their attention to be on Phillip Rivers.

Offensively, the Bengals have been in a slump but have a chance to get back on track here. Look for them to pound the ball with Cedric Benson as the Chargers still have issues stopping the run. They’re much better than they were earlier in the season but still vulnerable against better running attacks.

In the passing game, look for Palmer to execute a safer attack to Ochocinco, Coles and Caldwell. The Chargers are good at preventing the long ball so we expect more of an underneath passing game.

When it’s all said and done, look for the Bengals, rallying around the death of Chris Henry, to pull out a tough road win.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are on a three-game losing streak which is bad news for the Raiders. They’re heading out to Pittsburgh and will get absolutely pummeled. Expect multiple sacks and turnovers with a probable defensive score from our top ranked fantasy football D/ST unit in Week 13.

2. San Diego Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns

The anemic Browns managed seven points vs. the Bengals and Brady Quinn finished just 15 for 34 for 100 yards. The Chargers defense is playing much better and they’re getting help from their offense; the big leads are allowing Merriman, Phillips and Co. to pin their ears back and attack opposing QBs. They’ll force Quinn into mistakes.

3. New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills

The Jets defense got back on track with a dominating effort against the hapless Panthers. They’ll make that two stellar efforts in a row when they head on the road to face Buffalo. While T.O.s been hot the past two games, Revis will shut him down, and the rest of the Jets front seven will force Fitzpatrick into turnovers.

4. Cincinnati Bengals vs. Detroit Lions

The Bengals pass defense is one of the best in the business and their run defense has been great the past few weeks too. The Lions, playing with rookie QB Matt Stafford, come into this hurting at the skill positions; TE Brandon Pettigrew is out for the year and WR Calvin Johnson’s knee is still banged up. Look for a top effort by Cincy on Sunday.

Sleepers

1. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

Throughout the years, the Chiefs have always played the Broncos tough in Arrowhead. And while the 2009 version of the Chiefs are a work in progress, they did manage double digit fantasy points against the Raiders and Steelers and we still feel that the Broncos have issues on the offensive side of the ball. Expect a solid effort out Kansas City and they’re an excellent fantasy sleeper in Week 13.

2. Chicago Bears vs. St. Louis Rams

Kyle Boller makes the Bears an attractive option alone. He’s usually good for two turnovers per game. While the Bears have been average defensively in 2009, playing this one at home, on what could be a cold, windy day, should provide enough of an advantage for a strong defensive effort.

Others We Like

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants

Aside from the Falcons game, the Giants have abandoned the run in each of their five losses this season. They become completely one dimensional and OC Kevin Gilbride’s lack of creativity makes them an easy offense to scheme against. Look for DeMarcus Ware and Co. to get after Manning and rack up a few sacks in the Meadowlands.

Green Bay Packers vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Packers are a resilient bunch. Players keep going down yet they keep getting better as a unit. Expect a strong effort against a solid Ravens team on Monday Night in Lambeau. The cold should limit Joe Flacco’s effectiveness allowing the Packers to key in on Ray Rice.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are already without QB Matt Ryan and could be without RB Michael Turner too. Chris Redman is an easy target and we see DE Trent Cole all over him on Sunday.

A Few More

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs

New Orleans Saints vs. Washington Redskins

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks

Best Bet

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) vs. Denver Broncos

It was only a matter of time before the Broncos came crashing down to earth. The Ravens, in their 30-7 romp over Denver last Sunday, exposed some of the weaknesses on this offense, namely Kyle Orton’s inability to throw down field, and you can expect the Steelers to follow that blue print.

You can also expect Pittsburgh to play a physical game and wear the Broncos down offensively and defensively. Our best bet will win by at least one TD on Monday Night.

Next In Line

2. Arizona Cardinals (+3) vs. Chicago Bears

The Cardinals have been anything but true to form in 2009; they’re 1-3 at home, 3-0 on the road. Look for that to be 4-0 come Sunday as they’ll not only cover the point spread, but win outright. Offensively, the Cardinals will attack Chicago’s secondary with Fitzgerald, Boldin and Breaston, and the Bears will have few answers for this talented trio of receivers. Defensively, look for Arizona to bring a creative blitz package and confuse Jay Cutler into throwing picks.

3. Green Bay Packers (-10) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Packers are coming off an agonizing loss but will rebound with a big time performance in Tampa Bay. Offensively, look for Rodgers and Co. to pretty much have their way with this defense and defensively, having the luxury to face Josh Freeman, who’s making his first professional start, expect Dom Capers game plan to incorporate complex blitzes which force the rookie into multiple sacks and turnovers.

4. Cincinnati Bengals (+3) vs. Baltimore Ravens

See Money Line Analysis

Others We Like

Atlanta Falcons (-10) vs. Washington Redskins

The issues facing the Redskins are too numerous to be corrected over a bye week. So, expect the same inept offense we’ve seen over the first half of the season to show up on Sunday minus TE Chris Cooley. The Falcons are in a bit of a slide themselves, but will get back into the win column with a rout over the downtrodden Skins. Expect Atlanta to pound the ball with Michael Turner and utilize the play-action to create big passing plays for the offense.

San Francisco 49ers (-4) vs. Tennessee Titans

The 49ers played well in two tough road losses and come home to face the 1-6 Titans. And regardless of Chris Johnson’s prediction, which is nothing short of ridiculous, expect a methodical offensive game plan for the Niners complemented by a stellar defensive effort.

Indianapolis Colts (-9) vs. Houston Texans

The loss of TE Owen Daniels is a huge loss to the Texans offense. It completely changes the way opposing defenses prepare for them and takes away Matt Schaub’s safety valve when Andre Johnson is receiving double coverage. Look for Indy to recognize this and put extra attention on No. 80. And offensively, look for Manning to have a big day through the air and for the Colts to put 30 on the board.

Money Line

Cincinnati Bengals (+160) vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Bengals went into Baltimore in Week Five and upset the Ravens on a last second TD pass. This time, the scene shifts to Cincinnati.

The Ravens impressive showing against the Denver Broncos doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ve fixed their pass defense, it just means that they capitalized on Kyle Orton’s inability to stretch the field. But Palmer and Co. can stretch the field on any play and this will force Baltimore to tone down their aggressiveness for fear of getting beat deep.

Cincinnati will also feed the ball to Cedric Benson who found great success the last time these two teams played (120 yards, one TD). While finding running lanes will probably be more difficult this time around, it will keep the offense balanced.

Defensively, Cincinnati will focus on taking away Baltimore’s passing game and have two pretty solid corners to do so (Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph). Look for a variety of blitzes to keep Joe Flacco from finding a rhythm. Ray Rice will be hard to contain but the Bengals scheme will do its best to keep him in check.

What no one would have believed coming into the season will be a reality after Week Nine;  the Bengals will sit atop the AFC North standings with a 6-2 record and effectively be two games up on the Ravens after the season sweep.

2009 Record Against The Point Spread

Overall 63%

Best Bets 4-4

Next In Line 17-7

Others We Like 12-12

Money Line 6-2