Best Bet

1. San Diego Chargers (+2.5) vs. Det – See money line bet.

Next

2.  Carolina Panthers (-7.5) vs. TB – The Bucs have regressed horribly in 2011.

They’re in the midst of an eight-game losing streak and the heat is on their head coach, Raheem Morris. The Panthers on the other hand are on the upswing and Cam Newton will lead them to an easy victory here.

3.  Seattle Seahawks (+2) vs. SF – The point spread is less than a FG because the Niners are on the road and on a short week. But the Seahawks are also much better now than they were earlier in the year, especially on defense.

Expect a close, low scoring game, which Seattle may very well pull out in the end.

4. Miami Dolphins (+10) vs. NE – There’s always the possibility of the Patriots suffering a minor letdown after last week’s big win over Tim Tebow and Co. The Fins have also been competitive in nearly every game since the midpoint of the season.

The Rest

Denver Broncos (-3) vs. Buf – The Broncos will move one step closer to wrapping up the AFC West after Sunday’s win.

Arizona Cardinals (+4) vs. Cin – The game has plenty of importance to the Bengals playoff hopes, but the Cards are streaking at the right time. Expect them to keep the final score to within three points.

Kansas City Chiefs (-2) vs. Oak – The Raiders looked poised for an AFC West crown just a few weeks ago but those dreams have disappeared after three straight losses. It’ll be four after Saturday.

Money Line Bet

San Diego Chargers (+120) vs. Det – The Chargers are on fire since the Jacksonville game. The resurgence of Philip Rivers can primarily be attributed to the raised level of play from the offensive line, and San Diego has moved to 7-7 on the season.

The Lions on the other hand still feature an explosive offense but their defense has become ordinary.

Look for the Bolts to win their 4th in a row in a high scoring game on Saturday.

11. San Diego Chargers

The Chargers defense finished mid pack points-wise last year but came on strong over their 11 game winning streak to finish the season. They’ve suffered no key losses to the unit in 2010 – aside from dealing the overrated CB Antonio Cromartie to the Jets, so look for them to put up solid points as the Chiefs, Broncos and Raiders, who they play six times, aren’t very formidable.

12. New York Giants

The wild card is new DC Perry Fewell. The Giants have top 5 fantasy football D/ST ability but performed horribly under one-and-done DC Bill Sheridan in 2009, who managed to lead a top tier unit to just 83 total points. Injuries played their part as well. Look for Fewell, already established in the NFL as a coordinator, to get this D back on track and for the Giants to be a nice fantasy sleeper in 2010.

13. Cincinnati Bengals

This unit responded very well to DC Mike Zimmer’s and overcame key losses (DE Odom, LB Maualuga) to finish with 122 points. They have a lot of young talent and their secondary is adept at forcing turnovers. Expect them to be a low No. 1 D/ST right back.

14. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are a very well coached team and added some firepower when it signed OLB Karlos Dansby in the off season. They finished with only 93 fantasy points in 2009 but should be expected to increase that number to 120 plus in 2010 with the development of their young players and the addition of Mike Nolan to the Defensive Coordinator role.

15. New England Patriots

The Belichick defensive magic appears to have vanished but that could be a product of the old vets (Richard Seymour, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, Ty Law, etc) being gone. Stud MLB Jerod Mayo missed decent time in 2009 and the unit was often overwhelmed by quality offenses. The Pats have opted to go young via the draft and it remains to be seen whether Belichick can get this unit to consistently force turnovers and keep opponents out of the end zone week in and week out.

16. Tennessee Titans

The Titans got off to a horrible start under DC Chuck Cecil and couldn’t stop anyone through the air. Things improved over the year but they still only managed 95 fantasy football points after a stellar 2008. Some additions to the defense in 2010 should have them back between 110-130 points.

17. Indianapolis Colts

The Colts’ D was ravished by injuries to the secondary a year ago and finished with 109 points. Bill Polian addressed some of these issues in the off season and will expect DE Dwight Freeney and Co. to pressure opposing offenses into sacks and turnovers.

18. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are a strong fantasy sleeper entering this season. They went out and spent big money this off season and reeled in CB Dunta Robinson to head up its secondary. Tougher opposing schedule and injuries can be attributed to their poor 2009. Look for a bounce back this year and a nice fantasy upside.

19. Washington Redskins

DT Albert Haynesworth and his headaches aside, there’s talent and a new defensive philosophy in town with the addition of Jim Haslett as DC in Washington. Expect the coaching and scheme alone to contribute to an increase in fantasy points. LB Brian Orakpo’s an exciting young player who could reach 13-15 sacks in 2010.

20. Houston Texans

The Texans improved defensively and finished with 110 fantasy points in 2009. They’ll have to deal with the absence of LB Brian Cushing for the first four games of the season, but they’ve got enough talent on that side of the ball to be a spot fill-in fantasy defense in most leagues. KR specialist Jacoby Jones is an explosive special teams player who can be expected to score two or three times over the course of the season.

Last week, facing steep odds (7.5), they traveled cross country and wore down the heavily favored San Diego Chargers late with a physical running game and swarming defense.

The Indianapolis Colts road to this point has been far easier. After winning their initial 14 games, they created controversy by resting their starters and bypassing a chance at perfection in their Week 16 game against these very same Jets.

But they bounced back last week and smothered the Baltimore Ravens 20-3 in the Divisional Round.

The wonderful irony of this match-up is the Jets wouldn’t be in this situation had the Colts not given up in their Week 16 game.

Instead, they now find themselves facing this year’s Cinderella team which happens to feature the best running game and defense left in the Playoffs.

Onto the matchup:

When the Jets are on offense, not much is going to change from last week’s approach against the Chargers. They’re going to run the ball 65-70% of the time and try and keep Sanchez in manageable (3rd down) passing situations.

The Colts possess a much fiercer pass rush than the Chargers and New York doesn’t want to get into a situation where Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis can pin their ears back and come after Sanchez.

So look for rookie RB Shonn Grenne, the new star in town, to see a lot of action, and for Thomas Jones to be primarily used in short yardage situations and near the goal line.

The Jets should have success against the smaller Colts defense and once they do, look for Sanchez to locate Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery and Dustin Keller on quick passes.

In the course of the game, they’ll also take at least two shots down the field and provided they’re having success on the ground, could land one for a long TD.

QB/KR Brad Smith will also get between 3-5 direct snaps and run the Wild Cat. Indianapolis had tremendous issues stopping it vs. the Dolphins in Week 2 and could have similar problems on Sunday.

When the Colts have the ball, their offense, as usual, will run through Peyton Manning.

The Jets feature the league’s No. 8 run defense and the Colts were dead last in that department in 2009.

But the Jets are also No. 1 against the pass, so therein lies the dilemma.

For the Colts to attack this defense, they’re going to need to locate players other than Reggie Wayne. CB Darrelle Revis will be on Wayne’s side of the field and limit his effectiveness.

This means a lot of balls will be going in the direction of Dallas Clark, Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. In order to beat the heavy pressure, expect a lot of slants and crossing routes.

One thing New York did last week was keep everything in front of their secondary. While this prevented the home run ball, it left huge holes open over the middle (of the field) which the Chargers exploited all afternoon.

The Colts will do the same.

And once the passing game gets going, they’ll then mix in Joseph Addai and Donald Brown in order to keep the defense honest.

Look for the draw play to be used heavily. When facing an attacking defense, if the RB can get past the first wave of players, they could find themselves running for a while.

The run will also make the play-action a little more effective, which Peyton is the master at.

We expect at least two ror three shots down the field to Garcon off of it.

When this one is in the record books, look for the Colts to advance to the Super Bowl with a 17-13 win.

While it’s very hard to pick against the Jets with the way they are playing, and this could go either way, the only reason they were able to steal last week’s game is because San Diego missed a few FGs and failed to put New York away early on when they had the chance.

Expecting that to happen two weeks in a row is too tall an order for us.

Since then, they blew out the Bengals 37-0 in Week 17, and then headed into Cincinnati and manhandled them 24-14 in the Wild Card Round.

The Chargers finished the season 13-3, on an 11-game winning streak, and as the No. 2 seed in the AFC.

In the process of their 11 game winning streak, which came after an embarrassing loss to the Steelers, they shored up their run defense and swept the NFC East.

They enter this game playing well in all three phases (offense/defense/special teams) and are looking to advance to the AFC Title Game.

Onto the analysis of this game:

When the Jets have the ball, expect OC Schottenheimer to continue running the ball with Thomas Jones and rookie Shonne Greene. While the Chargers have vastly improved their run defense over the course of the season, they can still be run on.

The Jets will use a lot of misdirection and counter run plays to take full advantage of their backfield’s ability.

Once the running game finds a little rhythm, they’ll begin attacking through the air with high percentage passes.

The one thing New York wants to avoid is putting Mark Sanchez in a lot of 3rd and longs. So slants and quick outs to Jerricho Cotchery, Braylon Edwards and Dustin Keller will be incorporated throughout.

If they find success here, Sanchez will take at least one, maybe two shots down the field to “no-hands” Edwards.

Regardless of whether he catches it or not, the effect will be positive: in the first instance, it could be a TD; in the second, it’ll keep San Diego from bringing their Safetys up to stop the run.

Also keep an eye on Brad Smith in the Wild Cat.

San Diego hasn’t seen the Wild Cat much this season and this could cause confusion defensively.

When San Diego has the ball, look for Rivers to direct the attack through the air.

The Chargers running game has been non-existent in 2009, outside of the 2 yard TD runs LdT consistently gets, and they’ll find little success going against the league’s No. 8 ranked run defense.

The Jets Linebackers and Defensive Lineman plug holes quickly (outside of last week vs. Benson) and will keep Tomlinson and Sproles from finding success.

To combat this, Rivers will throw early and often. The most dangerous weapon for the Chargers will be TE Antonio Gates. The Jets don’t have anyone who matches up well with him, so expect No. 85 to be targeted over 10 times on Sunday.

Vincent Jackson will be limited by Darrelle Revis but Malcom Floyd and Legedu Nanee should have success against the N0 2. and Nickel CB.

Also keep an eye on Darren Sproles out of the backfield who could be a big part of the short passing game.

Screens are the perfect antidote against blitzing teams and the Jets love to bring pressure.

When the clock winds down to 0:00, look for the Chargers, currently favored by 7.5 points, to advance to the AFC Championship with a 20-13 win.

If the Jets can jump on them early, they have a real shot of stealing this game. But if it’s close throughout, which is how we see it shaping up, then expect Rivers and Co. to be too much in the 4th quarter and pull out the close win at home.

1. Aaron Rodgers vs. Seattle Seahawks

Best Bet

1. Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) vs. Tampa Buccaneers

The Seahawks were annihilated vs. the Texans last week yet are the best bet this week. How? Because they’re a much better team at home and are welcoming the 1-12 (0-6 road) Bucs to town.  Seattle will control this game offensively and use the legs of Justin Forsett to wear down the Bucs defense late.

Rookie QB Josh Freeman has been a turnover machine the past few weeks and Seattle’s D will capitalize on a few of his mistakes here.

Next In Line

2. Kansas City Chiefs (-2) vs. Cleveland Browns

This is likely the most unwatchable game on the schedule except for those with money on the line… both teams have been horrible lately outside of Cleveland’s upset of the Steelers last Thursday. The Chiefs have suffered offensively during Dwayne Bowe’s absence but he returns on Sunday. This will help out Cassel who’ll have more options in the passing game. The Browns offense is inept as a group and Kansas City is still a difficult place for opponents to play.

3. Baltimore Ravens (-11) vs. Chicago Bears

The Bears season has been a complete wash and Cutler has struggled without the necessary talent surrounding him. They also travel poorly (1-5 on road). The Ravens are still in the thick of the playoff race and we like Baltimore to pour it on this Sunday. Look for a lot of Ray Rice offensively and for the Ravens D to get after Cutler and force him into sacks and turnovers.

4. Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5) vs. San Diego Chargers

See Money Line analysis.

Others We Like

Arizona Cardinals (-12) vs. Detroit Lions

The Cardinals on the road in 2009 have been phenomenal. They’re 5-2 and one of those losses came when Kurt Warner was out. The other came on Monday against the 49ers, who have owned them recently. They’ll get back to their winning ways with a romp in Detroit. Warner and Co. will pick apart the Lions D and Detroit is looking like they’ll be forced to go with Daunte Culpepper at QB.

New Orleans Saints (-7) vs. Dallas Cowboys

This will probably be the last game of the regular season that the Saints get revved up for and look for them to put a show Saturday Night in the Big Easy. No one to date has stopped Drew Brees and Co. at home and the Cowboys won’t be the first. Dallas is also playing on edge after hearing all the “can’t win in December talk” and will lose in by at least 10.

Denver Broncos (-14) vs. Oakland Raiders

The Broncos have laid a few eggs in recent years when hosting the Raiders as big time favorites, but we don’t see that happening again. The main reason is this year’s team has a defense. They’ll get after Charlie Frye and make his life miserable, forcing turnovers and a lot three and outs. On top of that, the offense is playing well and Orton and his skill players are clicking at the right time. Look for a rout on Sunday.

Money Line

Cincinnati Bengals (+220) vs. San Diego Chargers

This game has huge playoff ramifications as the team that wins puts itself in the driver’s seat for the No. 2 seed in the AFC.

Cincinnati will be playing this one with a heavy heart after the death of WR Chris Henry on Thursday.

The Bengals actually play a style of defense which matches up very well against San Diego. The Chargers are excellent at passing the ball but the Bengals feature one of the top rated pass defenses in the NFL. Their CB duo, Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall, is one of the best in the business. The Bengals stop the run fairly well but the Chargers don’t feature much of a ground attack, so expect most of their attention to be on Phillip Rivers.

Offensively, the Bengals have been in a slump but have a chance to get back on track here. Look for them to pound the ball with Cedric Benson as the Chargers still have issues stopping the run. They’re much better than they were earlier in the season but still vulnerable against better running attacks.

In the passing game, look for Palmer to execute a safer attack to Ochocinco, Coles and Caldwell. The Chargers are good at preventing the long ball so we expect more of an underneath passing game.

When it’s all said and done, look for the Bengals, rallying around the death of Chris Henry, to pull out a tough road win.

1. Adrian Peterson

The Panthers strength of its defense lies in stopping the pass, not the run. Adrian Peterson will receive 25 carries and easily top the 100 yard mark with 2 TDs on Sunday Night.

2. Ray Rice vs. Chicago Bears

Ryan Grant took the 1st hand off in Week 14 to the house for a 62 yard TD. Overall, he finished with 137 yards and 2 TDs. Rice is hot right now (166 yards, 1TD vs. Det) and the Ravens will use their 2nd year back heavily against the Bears.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Indianapolis Colts

There’s a great possibility that the Colts will not play their starters the entire game. This would be excellent for Jones-Drew, who will receive between 20-25 carries and be utilized as a receiver out of the backfield. Look for a big game with another return trip to the end zone.

4. Cedric Benson vs. San Diego Chargers

San Diego has shored up its run defense over their eight game winning streak but can still be hurt on the ground. The Bengals, in a bit of an offensive funk themselves, will look to re-establish the running game and Benson, who totaled 96 yards vs. the Vikings, will top the century mark with a score on Sunday.

Sleepers

1. Justin Forsett vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers have consistently worn down late in games against the run and make most opposing RBs look like fantasy football stars. The Seahawks will win big on Sunday and Forsett will top 100 yards with a TD.

2. Chris Wells vs. Detroit Lions

“Beanie” Wells ran with authority against the Niners (79 yards, 1TD) and has a considerably easier task against the Lions. He’ll  top the 100 yard mark with a TD in round two of the playoffs and is an excellent fantasy sleeper.

Others We Like

Chris Johnson vs. Miami Dolphins

CJ is easily the top fantasy football RB in 2009 and is dominating this season as DeAngelo Williams did last year. He’s now run for over 100 yards in eight straight games and scored nine rushing TDs over that span. While Miami’s pretty good against the run and might slow Johnson a little,  he’ll be hard to keep under wraps the entire game.

Frank Gore vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Gore’s improved running between the tackles has helped his overall game. He rushed for 167 and a TD on Monday Night in an impressive effort against Arizona. This week he gets Philly, whose defense pales in comparison to the days when Jim Johnson was running the show. Expect a solid game from No. 21.

Thomas Jones vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Jets are wisely taking the ball out of their QB’s hands and placing it into the hands of Thomas Jones. He has five 100 yard games in his last eight and 6 rushing TDs. The Jets offensive line should have its way against a smaller Falcons defense so look for another big game from Jones.

A Few More

Steven Jackson vs. Houston Texans

Jamaal Charles vs. Cleveland Browns

Brandon Jacobs vs. Washington Redskins

1. Indianapolis Colts (-7) vs. Denver Broncos

With a win on Sunday, the Colts will wrap up home field advantage in the AFC. The Broncos, who are still fighting for a Wild Card, have beaten the Giants and Chiefs in consecutive weeks but will find that the Colts are a different beast.

Look for Peyton Manning to have success through the air and force Denver into a shootout, which is not their style of play. Defensively, Freeney and Co. will shut down Kyle Orton en route to an easy win in Week 14.

Next In Line

2. Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings

Although Minnesota is a tough place to play, it’s tough to bet against the Bengals in a big game situation this year. They’ve won every single one they’ve played in. And still vying for the No. 2 seed in the conference, expect Cincinnati to pull out a close victory on the road behind the legs of Cedric Benson and arm of Carson Palmer. The loss of MLB EJ Henderson to the Vikings’ defense will be difficult to overcome.

3. New England Patriots (-13.5) vs. Carolina Panthers

The Patriots are finally back to a place they can win: home. They’re 6-0 in New England and just 1-5 on the road. The Panthers will likely have to go with Matt Moore at QB and even the beleaguered Patriots defense can handle this assignment. Offensively, look for Brady and Co. to put between 25 to 30 on the board and wear the Panthers down late.

4. Miami Dolphins (+3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

See Money Line Analysis

Others We Like

Dallas Cowboys (-3) vs. San Diego Chargers

The Chargers are on a roll right now but have mostly feasted off a soft schedule during their seven game winning streak. And while the Cowboys certainly have issues of their own – can’t win in December, this is a must-win game for them. Their ability to run the ball will end up being the deciding factor in the game.

Philadelphia Eagles (+1) vs. New York Giants

The Giants potentially saved their season with their win over Dallas in Week 13. And while they did a lot of good things in that game, they’ve still got a number of issues rushing the passer and getting off the field on 3rd down. Andy Reid always has his teams prepared against New York and will attack the Giants porous pass defense with the Eagles talented young pass catchers (DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek).

Also, the +1 point spread suggests that the odds makers think Philly will win; home teams are usually alloted a 3 point spread if the book makers think the game is even.

Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers hopes for the post season will come to an end on Monday Night when the Cards head out to San Francisco. Kurt Warner is playing extremely well and Fitzgerald and Boldin will be too much for the Niners secondary. Defensively, the Cards will take Frank Gore out of the game and force Alex Smith to beat them.

Money Line

Miami Dolphins (+120) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags are the most unimpressive 7-5 team in the NFL.  Outside of Maurice Jones-Drew and the running game, they don’t do anything particularly well; the passing game is inconsistent and the defense is soft against both the run and pass.

The Dolphins are by no means a powerhouse, but they’ve won three of their last four (including a 22-21 win over the Patriots on Sunday) to move to .500. Chad Henne is slowly getting better and the improvement to the offensive side of the ball reflects his growth as a QB.

Offensively, Miami will focus on the running game with Ricky Williams to set-up the pass. Look for Henne to then execute a safe passing attack designed to keep the clock/chains moving and wear Jacksonville down. Miami will score at least 21.

Defensively, Miami will focus its efforts on stopping the run, which it’s quite good at. They’ll force David Garrard to beat them and he’ll struggle against an improving secondary.

When clock hits 0:00, Miami will win 21-17 to move even with the Jags at 7-6.

1. Tennessee Titans vs. St. Louis Rams

The Titans are still mathematically alive in the playoff race although another loss would be the “nail in the coffin.” They have an easy opponent in the Rams this week and should win going away. Chris Johnson could have another one of those 200 yard games and the defense, although far from the unit of ’08, will get after Kyle Boller and keep the score under 14.

2. Houston Texans vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Texans are in a similar situation to the Titans although their last three losses probably spelled and end to their post season chances because all were in the division.  But they’re still playing for Gary Kubiak’s job and have the offensive firepower to put points on the board against Seattle. Another reason to like Houston is the Seahawks travel terribly; they’re 1-5 on the road.

3. Dallas Cowboys vs. San Diego Chargers

The Cowboys are the more desperate team in this matchup and will play like it on Sunday. Offensively, they’ll emphasize the run while employing a methodical passing attack which eats away at the clock. Defensively, the Chargers have no running game to speak of, so while Rivers will have success through the air, look for Ware and Co. to keep the unit in check.

The final score will be close, but look for Dallas to prevail.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are on a three-game losing streak which is bad news for the Raiders. They’re heading out to Pittsburgh and will get absolutely pummeled. Expect multiple sacks and turnovers with a probable defensive score from our top ranked fantasy football D/ST unit in Week 13.

2. San Diego Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns

The anemic Browns managed seven points vs. the Bengals and Brady Quinn finished just 15 for 34 for 100 yards. The Chargers defense is playing much better and they’re getting help from their offense; the big leads are allowing Merriman, Phillips and Co. to pin their ears back and attack opposing QBs. They’ll force Quinn into mistakes.

3. New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills

The Jets defense got back on track with a dominating effort against the hapless Panthers. They’ll make that two stellar efforts in a row when they head on the road to face Buffalo. While T.O.s been hot the past two games, Revis will shut him down, and the rest of the Jets front seven will force Fitzpatrick into turnovers.

4. Cincinnati Bengals vs. Detroit Lions

The Bengals pass defense is one of the best in the business and their run defense has been great the past few weeks too. The Lions, playing with rookie QB Matt Stafford, come into this hurting at the skill positions; TE Brandon Pettigrew is out for the year and WR Calvin Johnson’s knee is still banged up. Look for a top effort by Cincy on Sunday.

Sleepers

1. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

Throughout the years, the Chiefs have always played the Broncos tough in Arrowhead. And while the 2009 version of the Chiefs are a work in progress, they did manage double digit fantasy points against the Raiders and Steelers and we still feel that the Broncos have issues on the offensive side of the ball. Expect a solid effort out Kansas City and they’re an excellent fantasy sleeper in Week 13.

2. Chicago Bears vs. St. Louis Rams

Kyle Boller makes the Bears an attractive option alone. He’s usually good for two turnovers per game. While the Bears have been average defensively in 2009, playing this one at home, on what could be a cold, windy day, should provide enough of an advantage for a strong defensive effort.

Others We Like

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants

Aside from the Falcons game, the Giants have abandoned the run in each of their five losses this season. They become completely one dimensional and OC Kevin Gilbride’s lack of creativity makes them an easy offense to scheme against. Look for DeMarcus Ware and Co. to get after Manning and rack up a few sacks in the Meadowlands.

Green Bay Packers vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Packers are a resilient bunch. Players keep going down yet they keep getting better as a unit. Expect a strong effort against a solid Ravens team on Monday Night in Lambeau. The cold should limit Joe Flacco’s effectiveness allowing the Packers to key in on Ray Rice.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are already without QB Matt Ryan and could be without RB Michael Turner too. Chris Redman is an easy target and we see DE Trent Cole all over him on Sunday.

A Few More

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs

New Orleans Saints vs. Washington Redskins

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks