Best Bet

1. Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) vs. Tampa Buccaneers

The Seahawks were annihilated vs. the Texans last week yet are the best bet this week. How? Because they’re a much better team at home and are welcoming the 1-12 (0-6 road) Bucs to town.  Seattle will control this game offensively and use the legs of Justin Forsett to wear down the Bucs defense late.

Rookie QB Josh Freeman has been a turnover machine the past few weeks and Seattle’s D will capitalize on a few of his mistakes here.

Next In Line

2. Kansas City Chiefs (-2) vs. Cleveland Browns

This is likely the most unwatchable game on the schedule except for those with money on the line… both teams have been horrible lately outside of Cleveland’s upset of the Steelers last Thursday. The Chiefs have suffered offensively during Dwayne Bowe’s absence but he returns on Sunday. This will help out Cassel who’ll have more options in the passing game. The Browns offense is inept as a group and Kansas City is still a difficult place for opponents to play.

3. Baltimore Ravens (-11) vs. Chicago Bears

The Bears season has been a complete wash and Cutler has struggled without the necessary talent surrounding him. They also travel poorly (1-5 on road). The Ravens are still in the thick of the playoff race and we like Baltimore to pour it on this Sunday. Look for a lot of Ray Rice offensively and for the Ravens D to get after Cutler and force him into sacks and turnovers.

4. Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5) vs. San Diego Chargers

See Money Line analysis.

Others We Like

Arizona Cardinals (-12) vs. Detroit Lions

The Cardinals on the road in 2009 have been phenomenal. They’re 5-2 and one of those losses came when Kurt Warner was out. The other came on Monday against the 49ers, who have owned them recently. They’ll get back to their winning ways with a romp in Detroit. Warner and Co. will pick apart the Lions D and Detroit is looking like they’ll be forced to go with Daunte Culpepper at QB.

New Orleans Saints (-7) vs. Dallas Cowboys

This will probably be the last game of the regular season that the Saints get revved up for and look for them to put a show Saturday Night in the Big Easy. No one to date has stopped Drew Brees and Co. at home and the Cowboys won’t be the first. Dallas is also playing on edge after hearing all the “can’t win in December talk” and will lose in by at least 10.

Denver Broncos (-14) vs. Oakland Raiders

The Broncos have laid a few eggs in recent years when hosting the Raiders as big time favorites, but we don’t see that happening again. The main reason is this year’s team has a defense. They’ll get after Charlie Frye and make his life miserable, forcing turnovers and a lot three and outs. On top of that, the offense is playing well and Orton and his skill players are clicking at the right time. Look for a rout on Sunday.

Money Line

Cincinnati Bengals (+220) vs. San Diego Chargers

This game has huge playoff ramifications as the team that wins puts itself in the driver’s seat for the No. 2 seed in the AFC.

Cincinnati will be playing this one with a heavy heart after the death of WR Chris Henry on Thursday.

The Bengals actually play a style of defense which matches up very well against San Diego. The Chargers are excellent at passing the ball but the Bengals feature one of the top rated pass defenses in the NFL. Their CB duo, Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall, is one of the best in the business. The Bengals stop the run fairly well but the Chargers don’t feature much of a ground attack, so expect most of their attention to be on Phillip Rivers.

Offensively, the Bengals have been in a slump but have a chance to get back on track here. Look for them to pound the ball with Cedric Benson as the Chargers still have issues stopping the run. They’re much better than they were earlier in the season but still vulnerable against better running attacks.

In the passing game, look for Palmer to execute a safer attack to Ochocinco, Coles and Caldwell. The Chargers are good at preventing the long ball so we expect more of an underneath passing game.

When it’s all said and done, look for the Bengals, rallying around the death of Chris Henry, to pull out a tough road win.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Chiefs have been abysmal offensively in 2009 and will now be without WR Dwayne Bowe on Sunday. Expect Pittsburgh and its aggressive front to dominate all afternoon and pressure Cassel into mistakes and turnovers.

2. Minnesota Vikings vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Vikings defense could get healthier with the return of CB Antoine Winfield, but regardless of whether he returns or not, look for a stellar effort on Sunday. Jared Allen and Co. will make Hasselback’s life miserable and force a few turnovers in Week 11.

3. Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins

Don’t be misled by the Redskins 27 point game vs. the Broncos; Denver is in a tail spin right now. The Cowboys on the other hand are playing much better over the past month and DT Ratliff and DE/LB Ware will be in Campbell’s face all day Sunday.

4. Cincinnati Bengals vs. Oakland Raiders

The only reason the Bengals wouldn’t be a top fantasy football unit on Sunday is if they have a letdown knowing the hapless Raiders are coming to town. If they can get past that, and we think they can, expect a low scoring game with multiple sacks and turnovers.

Sleepers

1. Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins

Since Ronnie Brown is likely out for this one, the Panthers only have Ricky Williams to contend with. And Carolina’s defense has played much better over the past month of the season vs. the run. Expect John Fox to mix it up and force Chad Henne into poor decisions.

2. Detroit Lions vs. Cleveland Browns

The Browns are horrible offensively and even more atrocious on the road. The Lions certainly aren’t anything to write home about, but look for Jim Schwartz to have his team ready to play and they’re a strong fantasy sleeper in Week 11.

Others We Like

Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers

The Packers defense rose to the occasion nearly shutting out the Cowboys in Week Ten. They’ll focus on taking away Frank Gore and putting the ball – and game – into Alex Smith’s hands, which is a good sign for Packers D/ST owners.

New York Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons

If DC Bill Sheridan used the bye week to clean up some of his defensive calls, the Giants could be in for a big week here. The Falcons will be without Michael Turner which means New York won’t have to worry about a running game. If they hit Matt Ryan early, look for Tuck and Co. to rack up a few sacks and force turnovers.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears

The Bears, and namely their passing game, are struggling mightily at the moment. The Eagles defense is the opportunistic sort and we like them to pick Cutler at least twice on Sunday Night and sack him a handful of times.

A Few More

San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills

Arizona Cardinals vs. St. Louis Rams

1. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Baltimore Ravens showed the blueprint for keeping the Broncos offense in check: pressure. Since Orton’s not adept to throwing deep, if you bring the Safeties closer to the line, it limit’s Denver’s effectiveness. Look for Polamalu to play close to the line and the Steelers front seven to pressure Orton into sacks and turnovers. They’re our top ranked fantasy football D/ST in Week Nine.

2. Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It appears that the Buccaneers are handing the reins over to rookie Josh Freeman and you can bet that DC Dom Capers will bring continuous pressure to confuse the young QB on Sunday. Look for a multi sack/turnover performance as the Packers should dominate defensively.

3. San Francisco 49ers vs. Tennessee Titans

The only player the Niners need to keep an eye on at all times is RB Chris Johnson. And while that’s not an easy thing to do, the 49ers do have a defensive weapon who we think matches up well: MLB Patrick Willis. Vince Young will be ineffective on the road and the Niners will take advantage of a few mistakes.

4. Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Redskins

The Redskins are about as bad as they come on offense. Their offensive line is horrendous and Jason Campbell consistently makes poor decisions. Look for the Falcons to be opportunistic on Sunday and force multiple turnovers.

Sleepers

1. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs offensive woes are well documented and all start with the problems along the offensive line. It neither gives Cassel the time to throw or the running game holes to run through. Expect Del Rio’s unit to play a physical game in Week Nine and for our top D/ST fantasy sleeper to create havoc all day.

2. Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Bengals defense completely dismantled the Bears two weeks ago and are well rested coming off their bye week. The Ravens are a tougher test than the Bears but these AFC North Divisional battles tend to be physical and close. Look for the Bengals corners to intercept a pass or two.

Others We Like

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Ravens defense made adjustments over their bye week and completely stifled the Denver Broncos on Sunday. While the Bengals are a different beast offensively, namely due to their vertical passing game, the Ravens should be able to provide pressure up front and keep this a low scoring affair.

New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins

The Patriots allowed a total of seven points over their last two games and are well rested coming off their bye week. Look for their focus to be on stopping the Wild Cat because Belichick knows that Henne and the passing game will struggle against his third ranked pass defense.

New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers

The opportunistic Saints have already returned six TDs on defense this season. And facing Jake Delhomme in the Superdome, there’s should be an opportunity for their seventh. If the Saints take a commanding lead expect multiple sacks and a few turnovers.

A Few More

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys

Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans

Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions

1. Peyton Manning

Manning was held out of the end zone vs. the 49ers for the first time all season, yet he still managed 347 yards. He’ll have an easier time finding the end zone on Sunday in what could be a shootout. Look for Manning to hook up with Wayne, Clark and Co. for over 300 yards and three TDs. He’s our top fantasy football QB in Week Nine.

2. Aaron Rodgers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rodgers played an admirable 2nd half vs. the Vikings after being under siege for the first thirty minutes. Despite that futile first half, he still managed 287 yards and three TDs. He won’t have the same issues against a porous Buccaneers’ secondary and will finish with at least 250 yards and three TDs.

3. Tom Brady vs. Miami Dolphins

The Dophins, while extremely good against the run, are very thin – and vulnerable – in the secondary after the loss of CB Will Allen. Tom Brady was on fire before the bye week (9 TDs) and will continue his hot passing this week.

4. Phillip Rivers vs. New York Giants

The Giants defense is in complete disarray and there’s a gaping hole in the middle of their secondary (C.C. Brown). This also happens to be the same place that TE Antonio Gates tends to roam… Look for Rivers to find success through the air and finish with at least 250 yards and two TDs.

Sleepers

1. Alex Smith vs. Tennessee Titans

The Titans made adjustments to their pass defense and stifled David Garrard in Week Eight. But we’ll need to see more than one solid performance before we begin to change our perceptions of this pass defense. Expect Alex Smith, who’s thrown the ball well in his return to the lineup, to be an excellent fantasy sleeper in Week Nine.

2. Matt Cassel vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville defense just made Vince Young look like a professional QB, so this matchup bodes well for Matt Cassel. Look for him to locate Dwayne Bowe and Co. for a solid afternoon through the air.

Others We Like

Carson Palmer vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens were much improved against the Broncos but Denver lacks the vertical passing game which Cincy has. Palmer will challenge the Ravens corners and this is a matchup that favors the Bengals.

Matt Hasselback vs. Detroit Lions

Hasselback threw for 249 yards and two TDs vs. the Cowboys and now gets a considerably easier opponent  in the Detroit Lions. Look for another two, maybe three TD effort on Sunday.

Drew Brees vs. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers possess a solid pass defense but they have yet to face an opponent as potent as the Saints. While you probably shouldn’t expect one of those ridiculous 350 yard passing games, it’s realistic to expect 250 yards and two TDs from Brees.

A Few More

Matt Schaub vs. Indianapolis Colts

Donovan McNabb vs. Dallas Cowboys

Tony Romo vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Best Bets

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Steelers are coming into this at 4-2 and riding a three game winning streak. S Troy Polamalu is also back in the mix and his presence positively impacts the Steelers defense more than anyone else. The Vikings are playing well too, sitting at 6-0, but this is away from the dome. Expect Peterson to find little running room against the Steelers front and on the Hines Field Turf and for Roethlisberger to pick apart the Vikings secondary.

Next In Line

2. Indianapolis Colts (-13.5) vs. St. Louis Rams

The Colts are well rested and S Bob Sanders looks like he’ll make his first appearance of the season on Sunday. Offensively, they were already hitting on all cylinders. Expect Peyton Manning and Co. to put up well over 30 in Week Seven and limit the lowly Rams to fewer than 14.

3. Miami Dolphins (+6.5) vs. New Orleans Saints

The Saints are coming off an emotional win in which they took the New York Giants apart. The Dolphins are coming off their bye week and you can bet they’re not going to follow the Giants blueprint for stopping Drew Brees; they’ll blitz at least half of the time and try and pressure the QB. Offensively, in an attempt to not get lured into a shootout, they’ll rely heavily on the run and shorten the game.

4. Kansas City Chiefs (+5) vs. San Diego Chargers

See Money Line Analysis

Others We Like

New England Patriots (-15.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Patriots are coming off a 59 point win and you know Bill Belichick won’t be hesitant to run up the score in front of the London crowd. The Buccaneers are reeling and still 0 for the season (0-6). Things might get better at some point, but don’t look for improvement this week. Brady and Co. big in the UK.

Green Bay Packers (-7) vs. Cleveland Browns

Aside from a porous offensive line, the Packers are improving each and every week – especially on defense. The Browns won’t be much of a test on Sunday and we like Rodgers to lead this team to at least a 10 point victory.

Philadelphia Eagles (-7) vs. Washington Redskins

The Redskins are in a tail spin and the upper management issues – removing HC Jim Zorn from play calling duties – will certainly affect the team’s mindset come Monday Night, even against their division rivals. Look for the Eagles to bounce back from their horrific loss to the Raiders and dominate in DC.

Money Line

Kansas City Chiefs (+190) vs. San Diego Chargers

When you look at the Chargers roster, and see such a talented bunch, going with the 1-5 Chiefs seems irrational. However, when you see how this team responds to coach Norv Turner, the decision doesn’t look so bad.

The Chiefs are also playing better as a team and have historically been tough on San Diego in Kansas City.

Offensively, look for the Chiefs to pound the ball with Larry Johnson. LJ hasn’t been too effective thus far but the Chargers, minus DT Jamal Williams, have a gaping hole in the interior of its defense. Once the running game gets going, look for Cassel to take to the air and locate WR Dwayne Bowe and Co. The Chargers lack of a pass rush will open up opportunities for the passing game.

Defensively, the Chiefs will only have to worry about the Chargers passing game, which is extremely effective when Rivers has time (to throw). From a running standpoint, Tomlinson has clearly lost a step and is no longer the threat he once was, and this will allow the Chiefs to keep extra people back to contend with the air attack.  And once the Chargers become one dimensional, Kansas City should be able to get to Rivers on a few occasions.

The Chargers will be able to move the ball through the air but it won’t be enough. Expect a sloppy game out of both teams but one in which the home team will ultimately win.

2009 Record Against The Point Spread

Overall 63%

Best Bets 2-4

Next In Line 14-4

Others We Like 9-9

Money Line 5-1

Kurt Warner

Warner only makes this list because we don’t see a repeat of last year’s stellar fantasy performance.

In 2008, everything fell into place; after a horrible start for Edgerrin James, followed up by his complaining and then benching, the Cards abandoned the run completely and gave rookie Tim Hightower only a few carries mostly near the goal line. Overall, there were games where the pass to run ratio was 75/25.

This year, he’s a year older, had offseason hip surgery, and first round selection Chris “Beanie” Wells is now in the equation, meaning the Cards intend to run the ball more. While we still expect a solid year from Warner, blessed with weapons such as Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston, don’t expect 4,500 passing yards and 30 TDs.

Jay Cutler

There’s reason for hope in Chicago with the arrival of Jay Cutler. He gives them a legitimate NFL QB which is something they haven’t had in a long time. However, from a fantasy football standpoint, this is a step back.

He no longer has the weapons (Marshall and Royal) he had in Denver and instead has a converted DB as his likely top receiver. And while TE Greg Olsen’s a solid player, it won’t be long before defenses begin to key on him.

He’ll still produce solid number because a gun slinger by nature puts a lot of balls in the air, but another 4,000 yard, 25 TD season seems like a long shot.

Matt Cassel

Cassel stepped in admirably for Brady and put together a tremendous fantasy season for a guy who had only thrown a handful of passes since his high school season in 1999. Blessed with Randy Moss and Wes Welker, he finished up with 3,600 yards and 21 TDs.

That’s not going to happen in KC.

He’s walking into a rebuilding situation and a team that let its top receiver of all-time, Tony Gonzalez, go in the offseason.

Dwayne Bowe is a big time threat and will certainly help out, but the line is young, the receiving weapons outside of Bowe are limited, and a drop off is a more than likely result because of it.  Although he was paid like it, he won’t be a top tier fantasy QB in 2009.