Top Pick

1. New England Patriots (-6.5) vs. Ind – I get it, Andrew Luck is a beast, the Colts are starting to figure things out and are coming off a great road win in Denver. It still won’t matter. New England should win this by double digits. The Colts don’t stop the run very well so you can expect a heavy dosage of RB LeGarrette Blount and even Jonas Gray, who ran for 199 and 4 TDs against Indy the last time they played.

Defensively, New England doesn’t have to worry about a running game so you can expect a scheme heavily intent on defensing the pass. The Colts continue to take steps to reach the top of the mountain but will fall short once again.

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2. Green Bay Packers (+7) vs. Sea – The Seahawks are a good bet to win. But not by a TD. Green Bay will be the most complete team they’ve faced on their winning streak and the 1st legit QB outside of Cam Newton, who is not near Rodgers’ class. Russell Wilson’s offense struggled down the stretch (minus the Cards game) and the Packers bring in a pretty good D.

Expect the Packers to keep the Seahawks under 21. On the other side of the ball the Packers will have some success and hit on a big play here and there. We think the Packers could pull off the upset (money line bet is +225) but will certainly cover the point spread.

Top pick

1. Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) vs. Car – The Panthers should win and enter the game in pretty good shape health-wise. The Cardinals are forced to play QB Ryan Lindley which is a depressing thought. However, Arizona’s D will be ready to play and will force Cam Newton into mistakes. Expect a close game which Arizona may pull out in the end. Either way, Carolina won’t be covering the point spread.

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2. Detroit Lions (+7) vs. Dal – The Cowboys come in strong, finishing 8-0 on the road. They haven’t fared as well at home. The Lions D will challenge Romo and this running game all afternoon. Matt Stafford is good for a few mistakes but this will be close throughout and could go either way. If Stafford shows some maturity then the Lions may steal one on the road.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) vs. Bal – The loss of RB Le’veon Bell is big, but Pittsburgh still has enough firepower to beat the Ravens at home. Baltimore does not enter this game playing their best ball and will go out in round 1.

4. Indianapolis Colts (-3) vs. Cin – The Bengals will likely be without WR AJ Green who has a concussion. That is a huge loss. They’ll pound the rock with RB Jeremy Hill but will face another aggressive defensive plan like they faced earlier when shutout 27-0 to the Colts. Expect QB Andrew Luck and Co. to get the job done again.

Must Start

Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, AJ Green, Demaryius Thomas and Brandon Marshall

Tier 1

Alshon Jeffery vs. Dal – Jeffery will top 20 FFL points in PPR leagues against a worn out Dallas D.

Emmanuel Sanders vs. Buf – Peyton’s 1a choice will be a load for the Bills D.

Randall Cobb vs. Atl – The Falcons porous D will have few answers for Cobb.

TY Hilton vs. Cle – The Browns are well stacked at DB but Hilton’s playmaking ability will return him to the end zone.

Josh Gordon vs. Ind – If DB Vontae Davis is out then Gordon could break out in a big way.

Julio Jones vs. GB – Jones refound his earlier form against the Cards.

DeSean Jackson vs. Stl – McCoy’s return ignited the offense. Check the injury report for Jackson’s status.

DeAndre Hopkins vs. Jax – Hopkins star is rising in his 2nd season. He’s supplanted Andre Johnson as the No. 1.

Odell Beckham vs. Ten – He’s the only Giants playmaker. Beckham will top 20 FFL points in PPR leagues.

Kenny Stills vs. Car – Stills will top 100 yards with a TD.

Golden Tate vs. TB – There are plenty of balls to go around. Tate’s a 10-13 point threat.

Tier 2

Jeremy Maclin vs. Sea – It’s tough going against Richard Sherman and Co.

Brandon Lafell vs. SD – He is clearly Brady’s top outside threat.

Mike Evans vs. Det – The Lions tough D will knock the talented rookie down a notch.

Mike Wallace vs. Bal – Baltimore’s CBs are a weak spot. Wallace could get deep for a long one.

Steve Smith vs. Mia – Look for 90 yards and a TD.

Julian Edleman vs. SD – Stronger in PPR leagues.

Kelvin Benjamin vs. NO – The Saints secondary is a mess.

Andre Johnson vs. Jax – This is an easier matchup but Johnson remains a No. 2 / flex play at this point.

Bust

Sammy Watkins vs. Den – The Denver pass rush and CB Aqib Talib will keep Watkins in check.

Fantasy Sleeper

Jarvis Landry vs. Bal – The Fins slot receiver has stepped into a viable No. 2 WR. He’s a solid fantasy sleeper this week.

Top Pick

1. Cleveland Browns vs. Hou – Typically you might worry about a letdown after their big win vs. the Bengals on Thursday. But that won’t happen here. The Texans start QB Ryan Mallett which creates uncertainty facing a defense on the upswing.

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2. Carolina Panthers vs. Atl – Cam Newton and Co. got embarrassed on MNF. Thankfully for them they get the Falcons at home this Sunday. Expect a sloppy game which the Panthers pull out by at least a TD.

3. Washington Redskins vs. TB – The Bucs can do no right this year. They have a few talented spots on the roster but are razor thin in the middle. They’re also lacking a QB. All of that equals another loss when they head to Washington.

Tier 1

Philip Rivers vs. KC – Look for Rivers to continue his hot start at home.

Tony Romo vs. NYG – Romo will top 250 yards with 2 TDs. The run sets up everything.

Matt Stafford vs. NO – The loss of Calvin Johnson lowers him a bit, but still a No. 1 vs. the Saints.

Cam Newton vs. GB – The Packers D is down a few DBs potentially. Newton’s using his legs more too.

Russell Wilson vs. Stl. – Expect Wilson to get back to playing like his normal self against the Rams.

Joe Flacco vs. Atl – Tough to repeat last week’s effort but this is a great matchup.

Jay Cutler vs. Mia – The Dolphins D just got torched for 3 TDs. Cutler can put up 250+ yards and 2 TDs.

Tier 2

Alex Smith vs. SD – There could be issues with the Chargers pass D.

Matt Ryan vs. Bal – Ryan still benefits from garbage time points.

Carson Palmer vs. Oak – Palmer has a nice matchup here. Could top 225 with 2 TDs.

Kirk Cousins vs. Ten – Cousin’s may be benched but it won’t happen this week. He’ll put up 20+ fantasy points.

Bust

Drew Brees vs. Det – Something is missing with the Saints and it’s more than TE Jimmy Graham.

Fantasy Sleeper

Jake Locker / Charlie Whitehurst vs. Was – The Skins pass D is horrible.

Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Matthew Stafford and Drew Brees

Tier 1

Jay Cutler vs. NYJ – The Jets are undermanned in the secondary.

Nick Foles vs. Was – There will be big plays for the taking.

Cam Newton vs. Pit – Look for Newton to top 250 yards with 2 TDs.

Philip Rivers vs. Buf – Rivers is a solid No. 1 against a better D than people realize.

Tom Brady vs. Oak – He hasn’t played like a No. 1 thus far but this Raiders D is inviting.

Kirk Cousins vs. Phi – It’ll be hard for RGIII to get his job back. The Eagles secondary is vulnerable.

Matt Ryan vs. TB – Expect better results than a week ago. 250 yards with a few TDs.

Russell Wilson vs. Den – Look for Wilson to use play action to his advantage.

Tier 2

Tony Romo vs. Stl.  - Look or 15-20 fantasy points.

Andy Dalton vs. Ten – Check AJ Green’s status. Dalton’s start worthiness depends on him.

Colin Kaepernick vs. Arz – The Cards D is down 3-4 starters.

Bust

Peyton Manning vs. Sea – It won’t be as bad as the Super Bowl, but Seattle is a tough place to play. Expect a less than stellar performance.

Fantasy Sleeper

Matt Cassel vs. NO – The Saints D has stopped nothing thus far.

1. Peyton Manning vs. Hou – Manning will welcome the warmer weather in Houston.

2. Colin Kaepernick vs. Atl – Kaepernick has a VERY favorable match-up vs. the Falcons.

3. Tony Romo vs. Was – Tony Romo will top 300 yards and 3 TDs vs. the porous Skins D.

4. Philip Rivers vs. Oak – Look for Rivers to torch the Raiders secondary.

Not far behind

Matthew Stafford vs. NYG – The Giants have mailed it in.

Cam Newton vs. NO – The Saints are very ordinary on the road. Look for Cam to notch 3 total TDs.

Nick Foles vs. Chi – Foles will continue his hot stretch with another 275 yards and 3 TDs.

Rounding things out

Jay Cutler vs. Phi – Did you see the Eagles secondary try and cover Sunday?

Andrew Luck vs. KC – Not the easiest match-up but Luck is good for 250 yards and 2 TDs.

Russell Wilson vs. Arz – The Cardinals once stingy D has shown cracks recently.

Kirk Cousins vs. Dal – The Cowboys allowed Matt Flynn to torch them for 4 TDs in the 2^nd half. Cousins is better than Flynn.

Ben Roethlisberger vs. GB – The Packers secondary is suspect and will have trouble with Roethlisberger and Co.

Potential Bust – Beware

Drew Brees vs. Car – Another road game in a tough spot. The Panthers will exact revenge this week.

1. Peyton Manning vs. Ten – His charge towards the all-time TD record will continue here.

2. Tom Brady vs. Cle – The Browns pass D has slipped recently.

3. Matthew Stafford vs. Phi – The Lions pass game will overpower Philly this week.

4. Drew Brees vs. Car – This is a tough match-up but Brees fares well at home.

Not far behind

Nick Foles vs. Det – Foles should top 300 yards with 3 TDs vs. a porous Lions D.

Cam Newton vs. NO – Newton will be asked to carry the Panthers and put up 30 fantasy points this week.

Josh McCown vs. Dal – The Cowboys secondary is all beat up.

Rounding things out

Tony Romo vs. Chi – Not the easiest place to play in December, but Romo will top 20 fantasy points this week.

Philip Rivers vs. NYG – Look for Rivers to hit 17-20 fantasy points vs. the Giants.

Alex Smith vs. Was – Smith will find the Redskins D very friendly.

Matt Ryan vs. GB – Ryan will top 275 yards with 2 TDs against a banged up Packers D.

RGIII vs. KC – RGIII will threaten with his legs and arm Sunday. The Chiefs D has given up a lot of yards and TDs through the air the past few weeks.

Eli Manning vs. SD – Look for Eli to enjoy a big game in his 2^nd game in San Diego.

Potential Bust – Beware

Russell Wilson vs. SF – The 49ers D is stout at all three levels and will make Wilson’s afternoon tough.

1. Tom Brady vs. Hou – Brady will torch this hapless unit after a stellar comeback vs. the Broncos.

2. Peyton Manning vs. KC – The injuries to the Chiefs D mean Peyton will have a monster game.

3. Matthew Stafford vs. GB  – The Packers secondary is surrendering a LOT of big plays.

4. Tony Romo vs. Oak – The Raiders secondary will be torched by the Romo and Co.

Not far behind

Cam Newton vs. TB – Newton enters this game on a roll.

Russell Wilson vs. NO – The Saints D plays differently on the road.

Philip Rivers vs. Cin – Rivers enters this game on fire.

Rounding things out

Josh McCown vs. Min – McCown will have opportunities for big plays vs. the Vikings depleted secondary.

Eli Manning vs. Was – Make sure Nicks is available. Eli has a favorable match up here.

Nick Foles vs. Arz – This is a tougher match-up so expect 17-20 fantasy points as his ceiling.

Matt Ryan vs. Buf – The beleaguered Falcons should find success against the Bills D.

RGIII vs. NYG – The Giants may be deflated after the Cowboys game.

Andy Dalton vs. SD – Expect a much better effort coming off the bye.

Andrew Luck vs. Ten – Luck is a low No. 1 but has a solid match-up this week.

Potential Bust – Beware

Drew Brees vs. Sea – Seattle is the toughest place to play and Brees is not as deadly away from the Superdome.

1. Tom Brady vs. Den – Brady has his full cast of characters back and will light up the Broncos secondary.

2. Drew Brees vs. Atl – It’s a short week, but that won’t matter. Brees will top 300 yards with 3-4 TDs.

3. Peyton Manning vs. NE – He’ll put up a lot of yards with a 2-3 TDs. However, Belichick’s defenses usually get a few picks too.

4. Matthew Stafford vs. TB – Look for 300+ yards with 3 TDs.

Not far behind

Matt Ryan vs. NO – Ryan will hit 22-25 fantasy points on Thursday Night.

Cam Newton vs. Mia – Expect Newton to top 250 yards with 3 total TDs.

Eli Manning vs. Dal – Tough to trust Eli but the Giants are improving. Dallas’s D is beat up.

Rounding things out

Tony Romo vs. NYG – Romo will top 250 yards with 1-2 TDs. However, temper excitement; Giants D is playing well.

Mike Glennon vs. Det – It’s not often that I would recommend a rookie QB BUT these are the Lions after all.

Ben Roethlisberger vs. Cle – Expect 250 yards with 1-2 TDs.

Colin Kaepernick vs. Was – It’s really tough to trust Kaepernick at this point but these are the Redskins and they stink on D.

Alex Smith vs. SD – Smith is a low No. 1 fantasy starter and more likely a fill in this week.

Philip Rivers vs. KC – Expect 15-18 fantasy points vs. a good D.

Andrew Luck vs. Arz – Luck has struggled since WR Reggie Wayne went down and that will continue this week.

Carson Palmer vs. Ind – Palmer is coming off a career day.

Potential Bust – Beware

RGIII vs. SF – RGIII has been struggling mightily and now faces a pissed off 49ers D.