Must Start

Seattle, New England, Detroit, and Buffalo

Tier 1

Baltimore Ravens vs. Hou – Houston is down to its 3rd QB.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Sea – This will be a low scoring game.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Was – It’s RGIII they are facing.

Green Bay Packers vs. TB – Look for a bounce back against the lowly Bucs.

Tier 2

Denver Broncos vs. Cin – The Bengals have been abysmal in Primetime.

San Francisco 49ers vs. SD – There is little to play for but expect the 49ers players to put up 8-11 points.

Bust

Miami Dolphins vs. Min – Teddy Bridgewater is improving and the Dolphins are struggling.

Fantasy Sleeper

Carolina Panthers vs. Cle – Manziel will have plenty of bumps in the road early on.

Top pick

1. New England Patriots vs. NYJ – The NFL scheduling gods didn’t do the Jets any favors with their hellacious schedule to start the season. 1-5 will become 1-6 when they head to Foxboro tonight. The defense is trying to give NYJ a chance to win but the offense is non-existent.

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2. Cleveland Browns vs. Jax – The Jaguars made it interesting against the Titans but ultimately lost. The Browns are playing good football and will roll again here.

3. Buffalo Bills vs. Min – The Vikings are lacking in talent and bringing along a rookie QB. The Bills feature a strong defense whereas the offense does just enough to win a few games. This is one of them.

1. New Orleans Saints (-10) vs. Min – An 0-2 team doesn’t usually warrant being a 10 point favorite. This is not your typical 0-2 team, and they’re back at home where they bury teams. The Vikings will get blown out in this one.

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2. San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) vs. Arz – The 49ers will get back to doing what they do best and that’s running the ball and not letting Colin Kaerpernick fling it around the field. Rather, they will run a methodical offense and the defense should be fine facing QB Drew Stanton, the likely starter.

3. Miami Dolphins (-3.5) vs KC – This would normally be viewed as a trap game, but we don’t see it here. The Chiefs are desperate to avoid an 0-3 start but the good fortune that propelled them to a 9-0 start a year ago is not there. Miami is tough at home and will prove so again on Sunday.

4. Washington Redskins (+7) vs. Phi – See money line bet.

Rounding Things Out

Indianapolis Colts (-7) vs. Jax – They’re still the Jags.

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) vs. SD – Buffalo plays tough in their home park.

Denver Broncos (+5) vs. Sea – The Seahawks will win, but this will be much closer than the Super Bowl.

Money Line Bet

Washington Redskins (+240) vs. Phi – The Eagles are a lot more vulnerable than people realize. They were unimpressive against the Jags and then fortunate to beat the Colts on some shaky calls. The Redskins are rejuvenated playing under Kirk Cousins and will steal a close game late in the Linc.

1. Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5) vs. Oak – The Raiders have given up 42, 55 and 37 in the last three weeks. It’s also safe to assume that the Bengals know Carson Palmer VERY well from his years in Cincy and will dominate and cover the point spread in this one.

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2. Tennessee Titans (-4) vs. Jax – The Jags are likely emotionally spent from their thrilling OT loss to the Texans a week ago. The Titans, coming off the bye, are well rested after shellacking the Dolphins 37-3 in Miami.

3. St. Louis Rams (+3) vs. Arz – Both teams are shaky, but one is on a 6-game losing streak and now starting a rookie, late round pick at QB. The Rams actually enter this affair in better shape.

4. Buffalo Bills (+3) vs. Ind – See money line bet.

The Rest

Atlanta Falcons (-1) vs. TB – The Falcons are not currently playing their best ball, but still one of the Super Bowl betting favorites in the NFC.  They’ve also performed better on the road this year.

Cleveland Browns (+1) vs. Pit – This will be a low scoring affair but tough to see 37-year old Charlie Batch leading Pittsburgh to victory.

Denver Broncos (-10) vs. KC – These games are usually close in KC, but won’t be this year. The Chiefs are that bad.

Money Line Bet

Buffalo Bills (+130) vs. Ind – The Colts are 6-4 and in the playoff race, but way ahead of schedule from where most thought they would be in Andrew Luck’s 1st year. With wins meaning more to the Colts from this point on, look for Indy to fall short on Sunday.

1. Cincinnati Bengals (-2) vs. Cle – The Bengals let one get away vs. the Dolphins, but they’ll be ready this week. Although the Browns get CB Joe Haden back and should be healthier on the offensive side of the ball, expect Cincy to focus on taking away RB Trent Richardson and to cover the point spread with a TD win.

The Bengals thrive at beating bad teams.

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2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) vs. KC – The Brady Quinn show will be on display Sunday. But don’t expect it to be a good one when they head to Tampa. The Bucs are well rested coming off a bye week and will win this by at least a TD.

3. Denver Broncos (+1.5) vs. SD – Peyton Manning ALWAYS struggled vs. the Chargers when he played for Indy. But that was another time and team, and against a different Chargers D. Look for the Broncos to head into San Diego on Monday Night and pull out the win.

4. Buffalo Bills (+4.5) vs. Arz – See money line bet.

The Rest

New England Patriots (-3.5) vs. Sea – QB Russell Wilson is the reason why the Patriots will win this by a TD or more. The Seahawks D will keep the Patriots from going crazy on the scoreboard, but New England’s D will force Wilson into errors which cost his team the game.

Green Bay Packers (+3.5) vs. Hou – Our sense is that both teams were looking ahead a week ago, but the Packers are desperate for a win. They can’t afford to fall to 2-4 in a competitive NFC. Now, they might not win, but they’re not going to lose by more than a FG if so. The money line bet (+170) is not a bad gamble here either.

Philadelphia Eagles (-4) vs. Det – The Lions are a one dimensional offense and that should lead to problems against an aggressive Eagles D. On the other side of the ball, the Lions D will have trouble containing the Eagles skill players on Sunday.

Money line bet

Buffalo Bills (+190) vs. Arz – The Cardinals D is legit, but they’ll need to play a huge role on Sunday due to issues all over the offense. The Cards offensive line is horrendous, and they’re down to their 3rd RB, and while the Bills have looked like the dregs of the league the past two weeks vs. the 49ers and Patriots, this is a game they match-up well.

Look for CJ Spiller and Co. to pull out the close win in the desert.

1. San Francisco 49ers (-9) vs. Buf – The Bills come in injured, especially across the offensive line, and were annihilated a week ago by the Patriots 52-28 IN Buffalo. The 49ers are one of the premier teams in football and virtually unbeatable at home under Jim Harbaugh.

The 49ers will easily cover the point spread and win by double digits.

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2. Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) vs. Phi – The Steelers are getting healthy on D at the right time and coming off a bye week. The Eagles held on vs. the Giants but those turnover issues will rear their ugly head in Pittsburgh.

Look for Big Ben to lead the Steelers to a 7-10 point win.

3. Houston Texans (-9.5) vs. NYJ – There’s a chance the Jets could lose the rest of their games this season. It’s a small chance, but they’re likely finishing 4-12 or 5-11. Their 3rd loss will come on MNF when the Texans steamroll them in front of a national audience.

4. Tennessee Titans (+5.5) vs. Min – See money line bet.

The Rest

Cincinnati Bengals (-4) vs. Mia – The Dolphins gave the Cards quite a scare, but that won’t carry over this week. Cincy is playing very well and will win by a TD at home.

Denver Broncos (+7) vs. NE – The Broncos are getting better each week and currently sitting at .500. Look for Peyton Manning, who always plays the Patriots tough in the regular season, to keep this one close to the end.

Indianapolis Colts (+7) vs. GB – The Packers come off an emotional game to face the Colts a week after the team found out its head coach has Leukemia. Expect Sunday to be emotional. Green Bay also faces the Texans a week from now so this could be a trap game.

Money line bet

Tennessee Titans (+5.5) vs. Min – Everyone is feeling great about the Vikings after they beat the 49ers and Lions in consecutive weeks. We expect a letdown this week. Look for veteran QB Matt Hasselback to lead the Titans into Minnesota and pull out a 7 point win.

1. Buffalo Bills (-6) vs. Washington Redskins – The Redskins are devastated offensively.  Both RB Tim Hightower and TE Chris Cooley are out for the year and WR Santana

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

Moss is gone for 5 weeks.

Defensively they’re in pretty good shape, but they’re catching a hot Bills team that plays very well at home.

Look for the Bills to cover the point spread en route to the double digit victory.

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2. New England Patriots (-3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – There are just some teams that players own, and Tom Brady owns the Steelers. He’s 6-1 in his career and Bill Belichick always dials up the perfect game plan to stifle Pittsburgh.

Expect another lopsided finish this week.

3. Kansas City Chiefs (+4) vs. San Diego Chargers – We don’t believe the Chiefs are as good as they looked in their 28-0 thrashing of the Raiders last Sunday, but we also know the Chargers aren’t as good as their 4-2 record indicates.

Both teams have problems but this is in KC, where the Chiefs typically play the Chargers well.

4. Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles – See Money Line Bet.

The Rest

Carolina Panthers (-3) vs. Minnesota Vikings – The Panthers are learning how to win and QB Cam Newton continues to get better. The Vikings have been bad on the road and Christian Ponder will struggle in his 1st road start.

Baltimore Ravens (-13.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals – The Ravens are a completely different team on the road than home. The same goes for the Cardinals. Expect a rout on Sunday.

Houston Texans (-10) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – Usually you worry about a letdown when a team comes off a 41-7 win the week before, but not here. The Jags are in the Texans division and Houston knows the division is theirs for the taking.

Money Line Bet

Dallas Cowboys (+160) vs. Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles are coming off the bye after beating the Redskins in Washington. It was another ugly game for Philadelphia but one which was won because QB Rex Grossman was picked 4 times. The Eagles problems are real (turnovers on offense, poor scheme on defense) and the Cowboys are much better than the Skins.

Look for the Eagles defense to once again be their undoing in this one.

Dallas will be able to run the ball down the Eagles throats which will set up the pass for QB Tony Romo.

When all is said and done, Dallas will pull out the win by a FG.

1. Baltimore Ravens (-10.5) vs. Carolina Panthers – The Panthers will be starting a guy (Brian St. Pierre) who has thrown five career passes and was out of work two weeks ago. The white towel is waving freely in Carolina and we expect the Ravens, who are mad about their loss to Atlanta a week ago, to bury them. This is the best football bet of the week.

Next In Line

2. Green Bay Packers (-3) vs. Minnesota Vikings – There’s no more fight left in these Vikings. Brett Favre is no longer good enough or healthy enough to get it done, the team doesn’t play hard for Brad Childress, and the defense has become old and mediocre. The Packers on the other hand come into this rolling and off the bye. Look for an impressive outing from Aaron Rodgers and Co. which will officially puts this year’s version of the Vikings out of their misery.

3. San Diego Chargers (-10) vs. Denver Broncos – The Broncos will show that last week was an aberration and came out of left field. This is a bad team, and they’re going to get beaten easily by the Chargers, who are coming off the bye. Norv Turner coached teams typically begin to roll after the midway point and this will be the team’s third consecutive win.

4. Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) vs. New England Patriots – See Money Line Bet.

Rounding Out the List

New Orleans Saints (-11) vs. Seattle Seahawks – The Saints are playing exceptional football, especially on defense, and come into this affair with RB Reggie Bush back in the mix. The Superdome is a very hard place to play and the Seahawks will get buried.

Buffalo Bills (+6) vs. Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals are officially out of the race, while the Bills, who just notched their 1st win, are feeling better about themselves. Look for the feisty team to keep this one close to the end.

Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals – Yes, the Chiefs were destroyed in Denver, and yes they’re big favorites, but these are the Cardinals. The same team which was blown out by Seattle at home. Look for Kansas City to get back on track and win this going away.

Money Line Bet

Indianapolis Colts (+180) vs New England Patriots

The Patriots are coming off an impressive showing in Pittsburgh and now face their arch nemesis, the Indianapolis Colts. Brady is playing very well and spreading the ball all around to a number of targets. But as has been the case more times than not since 2006, Peyton Manning has figured out Bill Belichick, and will lead his team to the win on Sunday. They’ll hopefully have Austin Collie back, which would add to their complement of receivers, and his quick passing attack will befuddle the Patriots young secondary.

1. Indianapolis Colts (-3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The Colts come in off a convincing win over the Texans on Monday Night. They’ll face a well rested Philadelphia Eagles team but shouldn’t have a problem this weekend. The DC Sean McDermott led defense has many holes in it, and Peyton Manning will exploit it for big plays in the passing game.

The Colts defense, and its defensive ends in particular, will harass QB Michael Vick and do just enough to secure the victory by a TD. This is the best bet of the week.

Next In Line

2. Miami Dolphins (+5.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens – The Dolphins have played the AFC North division tough in 2010. They beat the Bengals on the road last week and lost a one-point game to the Steelers the week before. Expect another close finish and for the Dolphins to catch the Ravens a bit rusty coming off their bye week.

3. Houston Texans (+3) vs. San Diego Chargers – The Chargers, already decimated by injury, could be without their All-Pro TE Antonio Gates in this one. He’s suffering from a foot injury. If they are, this dramatically changes the dynamics of San Diego’s offensive approach.

Regardless, we see the Texans, behind Matt Schaub, Arian Foster and Andre Johnson, rising up and pulling out the close win at home.

4. Buffalo Bills (+3) vs. Chicago Bears – See Money Line Bet.

Next In Line

Carolina Panthers (+6.5) vs. New Orleans Saints – The Saints are coming off a huge effort over the Steelers and could be poised for a letdown facing the one-win Panthers. We like Matt Moore and Co. to do just enough to hang around late and keep the final to less than six.

Cleveland Browns (+4.5) vs. New England Patriots – This game has the look and feel of a trap game for the Patriots. It is sandwiched between their win over the Vikings last week and next week’s Monday Night game vs. the Steelers. As such, look for the well rested Browns to keep this very close to the end.

Arizona Cardinals (+8) vs. Minnesota Vikings – Regardless of the fact that the Vikings are a more talented team than the Cardinals, they’re clearly a team that lacks focus right now. They’re also on the verge of imploding after the midweek release of WR Randy Moss. Look for the Cardinals, who are turning back to QB Derek Anderson, to keep this close with an outside chance at the upset.

Money Line Bet

Buffalo Bills (+130) vs. Chicago Bears -

The law of averages will win out in this one. The Bills have played both the Ravens and Chiefs to last second OT losses and are poised to put their 1st W on the board against the Bears.

Look for one of Jay Cutler’s well documented mistakes to be the deciding factor this week and we like the Bills to pull out the 20-17 win.

New England Patriots: 7-5

The Patriots being the lowest bet on the board has more to do with the “Bill Belichick effect” than talent on the field.

Offensively, this team can still score with the best of them. QB Tom Brady is another year removed from his ACL injury, WR Randy Moss and WR Wes Welker are still on the outside, and the offensive line is a strength. But questions remain on defense.

What’s clearly gone from the team’s glory days is the pass rush, which used to force turnovers and create havoc for opposing offenses. The result of not being able to apply pressure on QBs in 2009 was a secondary that was consistently abused. We’ll need to see evidence before we’re ready to say some of their personnel moves will improve their pass rush.

The first place schedule they’ll play is also a negative.

New York Jets: 7-5

This is the team everyone is talking about. Their training camp will be featured on HBO’s Hard Knocks series, and expectations have reached “Super Bowl or bust” levels in 2010.

They finished the ’09 campaign on a tear and were very aggressive in the offseason, landing veterans such as CB Antonio Cromartie, WR Santonio Holmes, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, and DE Jason Taylor to name a few. However, there were some key losses that they’ll need to overcome (OG Alan Faneca, RB Thomas Jones, RB Leon Washington, etc).

The Jets are banking on a ferocious defense that keeps teams out of the end zone and is able to force turnovers and an offense that sees the continued development of QB Mark Sanchez and, to a slightly lesser extent, RB Shonn Greene. Rex Ryan will have this team raring to go, but it remains to be seen how well it comes together.

Miami Dolphins: 10-3

The Dolphins are a team that many are overlooking in the AFC East, but it was they who made the two biggest acquisitions in the offseason: WR Brandon Marshall and LB Karlos Dansby.

Marshall will change the entire dynamic of the offense and provide a big play outlet for third-year QB Chad Henne. The running game will once again be strong, and the re-emergence of Ricky Williams in 2009 gives the Dolphins two No. 1 RBs on any given Sunday.

On defense, DC Mike Nolan was brought in to run the show, and there’s a lot of young talent for him to work with. They’ll enjoy the third place schedule they get to play, and the Dolphins will be serious challengers for the AFC East crown.

Buffalo Bills: 20-1

The Buffalo Bills will finish in last place unless something bizarre happens to one of the other teams.

The most glaring weakness that the Bills failed to address this offseason was the problems along the offensive line. Regardless of how talented and fast C.J. Spiller is, he can’t run through a wall. Another result of a poor offensive line means that the king of the dump-offs, QB Trent Edwards, will be scrambling for his life again.

The defense has some talent to work with, but the lack of offensive production means opposing teams will wear them down late in games.

Pro Football 101 betting strategy

We think the Miami Dolphins will once again surprise this division and steal it at 10-3 betting odds—a nice 333 percent return on your money. Tony Sparano is a fine coach, and the team’s talent level makes this a well-calculated gamble.

The Jets will wind up as a wild card in second, and the Patriots will find themselves fighting with the Bengals and Steelers for the final Wild Card spot.