What was initially described as a minor ankle injury is really a torn ligament, and the pass rushing specialist’s availability, or if he plays, effectiveness, is in doubt.

How does this affect your betting strategy?

If Freeney is unable to go or limited, the Colts will have very few answers to stopping the Saints passing attack.

It used to be that when S Bob Sanders went down, the run defense disappeared. Well, Jim Caldwell and Co. have shored up that part of the defense and the Colts were able to absorb the star studded, but often injured Safety’s loss and play respectable run defense.

But losing Freeney would be particularly big because the Saints are a pass happy team. The Colts would be unable to generate a consistent pass rush with their front four and Drew Brees is as good as anyone when he has time to deliver the ball.

He’ll carve up the Colts secondary and trade score for score with Peyton Manning.

In fact, the loss of No. 93 would actually tip the scales in the Saints favor.

And the reason is we expect Gregg Williams defense to generate more of a pass rush on Peyton than Caldwell’s will get on Brees.

We’ll have our full analysis later in the week, but at this point, with the new news on Freeney, we’re leaning towards taking the Saints (+6), the Saints on the money line (+170), and the over (56.5).

While we like them at this number with their roster as is, word came out yesterday that their best defensive player, DE Dwight Freeney, had an ankle injury much worse than the team was letting on.

When the injury occurred late in the AFC Championship Game it didn’t look good at all.

He came down awkwardly on his ankle and immediately headed towards the sideline.

His day was done at that point thanks to the Colts commanding lead.

But if he’s forced to either miss the Super Bowl or is unable to be his normal self due to the injury, this impacts the game – and betting strategy – tremendously.

If either of the above scenarios are realized, the Saints will then shift help over to Robert Mathis’s side, who by the way is helped greatly by the attention paid towards Freeney, and the Colts pass rush will be effectively neutralized.

They’d then have to resort to more blitzes in an attempt to pressure Drew Brees and throw off his rhythm.

This scenario wouldn’t be favorable for Indianapolis. When Brees has time to throw, he’s deadly. He’ll distribute the ball around the field and pick apart the Colts secondary.

The Saints would also be able to go toe to toe with the Colts offense and keep things interesting until the end.

So keep an eye on his injury status prior to placing your bets.

As said in an earlier article, his is the one injury, outside of Peyton Manning, which could derail Indianapolis’s chances of winning the Super Bowl.

If he can go and play at a high level, we still like the Colts -6; if he can’t, take the Saints (+6) and the (+180) money line.

This seems about right and at this point, looks tasty if you’re planning on placing money on Indy. The only thing to keep an eye on would be the injury to DE Dwight Freeney. According to various reports, Indianapolis is saying that he’ll be fine for the game.

And historically, he’s been a fast healer, so the extra week off should help.

But this is one injury which would be more damaging to the Colts – and the point spread – than any other besides Peyton Manning.

We’ll provide a more in-depth analysis closer to kick off, but one thing which we all know is the Saints are a vastly different team away from the Superdome than in it.

At home, they’re lightning quick, their routes are precise and they feed off the hometown crowd. And once they’ve been able to jump out to a lead, they’ve been able to bury teams.

But on the road, and in particular, on the grass, it’s a different story.  It took big rallies to pull off last minute wins against the lowly Redskins and Dolphins.

Indy on the hand is well versed playing anywhere. The grass doesn’t seem to affect their team speed and Peyton is Peyton whether at home or on the road.

And Miami also happens to be the home of their last Super Bowl Championship.

1. New York Jets (+7.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts

Sometimes it’s too difficult to tempt fate. This is one of those times. While we actually think the Colts will win a close one, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where they’ll win by more than 8. In fact, with the way the Jets are playing, both on defense as well as running the ball, we think it’ll be decided by less than four points.

And the reason for that is the Jets possess the most aggressive defense in the Playoffs and Peyton Manning struggles when he has pressure in his face. He gets happy feet and his throws are erratic.

New York will keep everything in front of them and bring waves after No. 18 to disrupt his timing.

Offensively, the Jets will continue to pound the ball in an attempt to shorten the game and keep Manning and Co. cold on the sidelines.

The 7.5 point spread is too much. Take the Jets plus the points and if you believe in fate, and that the stars have aligned to have the team the Colts could’ve eliminated (in Week 16) come back to knock them out of the Playoffs, bet the +250 money line too.

Next In Line

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) vs. New Orleans Saints

The only reason Brett Favre came back was to have a chance at another ring. He’s 60 minutes away from realizing that goal.

While the Saints might possess a bit more potency on offense than the Vikings do, Minnesota is superior on defense.

And we think the defense will be the difference. The Saints are nearly unbeatable when they go up and down the field and score at will. Not only does it demoralize the opposing defense, it puts intense pressure on the offense to match them score for score. But we don’t see this happening against Leslie Frazier’s defense.

Instead, expect the Vikings to be able to move the ball on both the ground and through the air against the Saints and for its defense, once it has a lead, to pin their ears back and come after Brees.

The final score will be close, but take the 3.5 points as well as the money line (+150).

The story book ending Favre’s been looking for is very close to being realized.

From that point on it was only a matter of running out the clock; the Pats were demoralized and stood no chance of coming back against the Ravens ferocious defense.

The Colts enter this match-up still feeling the heat from their decision to forgo the opportunity of an undefeated season in Week 16. That decision means that it’s Super Bowl or bust in 2009.

Regardless of what Bill Polian says, and while having the Super Bowl as his No. 1 priority is certainly correct, his nonchalant attitude towards history could come back to haunt him in the end.

Onto the match-up:

When the Ravens are on offense, look for them to pound the rock with Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. They’ve had all sorts of success running behind their talented offensive line, and will need to do so on Saturday.

If Joe Flacco has a repeat performance of last Sunday (4 – 10  for 34 yards and one INT), they’ve got no chance.

So look for Cam Cameron to call running plays until the Colts show they can stop it. If they can’t, Baltimore will shorten the game and keep the high powered Colts offense on the sidelines and cold.

The Ravens will try and keep Flacco in manageable passing situations at all costs, ie 3rd and 4, 2nd and 5, etc.

They don’t want to have him passing out of 3rd and long against a very opportunistic defense.

So look for a short, safe  (passing) attack, with the most potent weapon in the passing game being screens and swing passes to Ray Rice out of the backfield. He’s deadly on those and can take it to the house.

When they look to go down the field, Mason will be the top target and Heap will be the No. 1 focus in the red zone.

When the Colts are on offense, everything runs through Peyton Manning. In order to beat Baltimore’s defense, he’ll need to execute a quick passing game and quicken the tempo of the offense to offset the Ravens’ pressure defense.

So Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie and Dallas Clark can expect to see plenty of balls come their way.

And when S Ed Reed creeps up to take away Clark over the middle, look for Manning to pop a long TD to Wayne or Garcon as the Ravens are vulnerable to the deep ball.

Once the passing game has found its groove, expect a healthy dose of Joseph Addai.

We saw how difficult it is for high powered offenses to succeed on the passing game alone in last week’s game; the Pats were manhandled because they were predictable.

Addai will have some success, mostly on draws, but he’ll be used primarily as a receiver out of the backfield and to keep the Ravens’ front seven honest.

The first time these teams played the Colts were fortunate to win 17-15. Flacco was picked late as the Ravens were driving for a GW FG.

This time will be close as well, with the Colts pulling away late to win 24-14.

While the Ravens are certainly capable of winning this game, there’s only one way in which they’ll be able to do so: get a lead and run the ball.

If they can, they’ll have a chance; if they don’t, Flacco and Co. will not be able to carry this team to the win.

The 6.5 point spread is a good bet as well.

Best Bet

1. New England Patriots (-3.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens

The only way Baltimore can win this game, and cover the point spread, is by establishing the running game. But Belichick is smart enough to recognize this and will scheme to take Ray Rice and Willis McGahee away.

Joe Flacco has been horrible at times down the stretch and that inconsistency will lead to a few picks on Sunday.

The Pats won’t light up the scoreboard either, but Brady and Co. will make enough plays to get it done. Keep an eye on Randy Moss whose deep speed could prove too much for the Ravens Secondary.

The Pats have been here before and are hard to beat at home in the playoffs. Look for them to win by a TD.

Next In Line

2. Arizona Cardinals (+2) vs. Green Bay Packers

This is the most difficult game on the board to pick. Both offenses are going to move the ball through the air against each other and it will come down to which team can make the big play/stop on defense.  Our money is on Arizona.

Talented S Adrian Wilson will be all over of the field and his presence in the box will ensure Ryan Grant doesn’t get going. Their creative defensive packages will also account for the Packers receivers, something very difficult to do, and although we see Rodgers and Co. having success passing the ball, we expect Arizona, playing at home, to come up big when it counts.

This team did it last year throughout the Playoffs and look poised to make a run this year too.

3. Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) vs. New York Jets

Don’t let the 37-0 whooping mislead you; there were many reasons for that lopsided score. The bottom line is the Bengals didn’t need that game and didn’t show much in it either.

Look for Cincinnati to focus heavily on its running game (Cedric Benson) to set up the pass and for the other receivers (outside of Ochocinco), Caldwell and/or Coles, to step up and make plays in the passing game.

New York will attempt to run the ball but the Bengals will scheme to take this away. And Mark Sanchez won’t be able to beat the Bengals, and its talented CBs, through the air.

The Bengals will bounce back this week with a big 17-13 win playing in their homepark.

4. Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

A week ago, we chose the Eagles straight up and were burned. Dallas had their way with Philly although Reid shut things down once it was apparent that they were not going to win.

The more we analyze this match-up, it’s hard to envision the Eagles keeping this game to within a FG. They can’t  - don’t – run the ball, and by failing to do so, McNabb is put into precarious spots. DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer are then able to pin their ears back and go after No. 5.

The inability to go play-action also limits DeSean Jackson’s effectiveness.

On offense, Marion Barber and Felix Jones will run the ball at will on the Eagles smaller defense and when Philly tries to bring up Safety help, Romo will make them pay.

Look for the Cowboys to sweep all three games this season with a 24-17 win on Saturday Night.

And don’t let last Sunday’s lopsided 33-7 victory lead you to believe otherwise.

The Packers come into this affair winning seven of their last eight. The embarrassing 38-28 loss they suffered to the Buccaneers turned on the switch for Dom Capers’ defense and ever since that game, with the exception of the 37-36 loss to the Steelers, they’ve played lights out.

And offensively, they’ve corrected many of their early season offensive line woes and are thriving through both the air and on the ground.

The Cardinals are also very dangerous coming into this game. Their slow finish to the season was the result of having clinched their division by Week 15, but they still finished 10-6.

Nevertheless, when this team really needed a big win this year, they always came through.

We see them doing so again on Sunday.

When Arizona is on offense, we expect Kurt Warner to come out firing to Fitzgerald, Boldin (if available) and Breaston. The Packers like to bring extra men to pressure the QB but Warner’s not the type of QB you can do that to… at least not on a consistent basis.

If you get to him, great, you’ll disrupt the passing game; but if you don’t, and more times than not you won’t, he’ll light you up.

And even with the season that CB Charles Woodson has had, don’t expect him to win the battle with Fitzgerald.

Once they get the passing game going, look for RB Beanie Wells to be a big part of the plan. The rookie RB starred in the 2nd half of the season and is an excellent option to eat up clock and wear down the smaller Packers’ front seven late in the game.

When the Packers are on offense, they’ll also need to use their passing game to set up the run. The Cardinals love to bring S Adrian Wilson into the box and take away the opposing team’s running game. So don’t expect much from RB Ryan Grant.

Expect Aaron Rodgers to locate Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and Co. using the short passing game before setting up the deep ball. Dominique Cromartie-Rodgers at his best is tough to beat deep; but he’s hurt, so Jennings might be able to get down field for a long score.

Regardless, while Rodgers will find success through the air, the deceptive Cardinals defense will be able to make a few key plays that force the Packers to settle for FGs rather than TDs.

And in the end, that will be the difference.

In what should be a hard, fought game, look for Arizona, whose mettle has been tested before, to prevail 31-27.

They’re also a good bet to cover the point spread.

The Ravens have been severely depleted in their secondary having lost most of their starting CBs, while the Patriots, relatively unscathed outside of a few injuries, lost one of their most valuable assets in WR Wes Welker in their regular season finale.

On to the analysis of this Wild Card match-up:

When the Patriots are on offense, look for them to attack Baltimore through the air. The one area which the Ravens are particularly strong is against the run; they’re No. 5 in the league. And New England doesn’t possess the type of power running game which can pick up tough yards against this front seven.

So once again Tom Brady will set the tone for this offense.

The Welker injury is devastating but they’ve still got plenty of weapons on the outside to get the job done. To compensate for the loss to the underneath game, rookie Julian Edelman will be used primarily on crossing patterns and 3rd downs.  Brady will also involve WR Sam Aiken and his TEs (Chris Baker, Ben Watson).

But the receiving corps will need Randy Moss to play like the star he’s been over the past 10 years to take pressure off the other guys. Baltimore doesn’t possess anyone in the secondary that can stay with him and we expect at least one long TD on Sunday.

Once they get the passing game going, look for New England to mix in the run with Sammy Morris, Fred Taylor and Kevin Faulk on 3rd downs.

When the Ravens have the ball, expect a heavy dose of Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. Joe Flacco’s play has really tailed off since his hot start to the season and Baltimore will want to keep the fate of the game out of his hands. But Belichick won’t; expect Vince Wolfork to be back and you’ll see New England bring an extra man in the box to ensure the ground game doesn’t get going.

When the Ravens are put into obvious passing situations, New England, devoid of any real pass rushing threats, will have to bring extra people to rattle Flacco and throw off his rhythm.

The one thing they’ll need to keep an eye on is Ray Rice out of the backfield because he’s extremely dangerous on screen passes and will be Baltimore’s biggest receiving threat on Sunday.

As for the skill players, Mason’s slowed down (huge drops vs. Pittsburgh) and there’s no other receiving threat, outside of TE Todd Heap in the red zone, to worry about.

When the clock hits 0:00, expect New England to pull out a 24-14 win. They’re currently only favored by a 3 point spread and that’s too low.

The Patriots are certainly not the world beaters they were for the better part of this decade, but the Ravens have been very inconsistent down the stretch and were fortunate to overcome the pathetic Raiders in Week 17 in a game they had to have.

Much of those struggles can be attributed to Flacco’s up and down play, and you can bet Belichick will have something up his sleeve to keep the 2nd year QB from regaining his early season form.

A few things to consider when analyzing this game before making your pick:

* The Jets needed last week’s game badly to make the Playoffs; the Bengals didn’t.

* The Bengals, with a win, would have secured the 3rd seed and faced the Ravens for the third time this season.  They’ve won the first two and beating a team three times in one season is something very difficult to accomplish.

* The Bengals sat Cedric Benson and a few of their other key defensive players.

* The Jets showed everything in their arsenal (offensively and defensively) while the Bengals showed very little.

Now to the rematch and how we see things shaping up on Saturday.

When the Bengals are on offense, look for Palmer to feed the ball to Cedric Benson between 25 and 30 times. It is imperative that the Bengals can get a solid running game going because their pass offense has been unable to carry them over the last six weeks of the season. What’s becoming more apparent is that when the late Chris Henry was placed on IR, the threat of a deep passing game went with him.

Aside from Ochocinco, who’s now slowed by a knee injury, Coles and Caldwell have failed to step up and this has defenses shifting focus to his side of the ball. The Jets have the luxury of being able to put CB Darrelle Revis on No. 85 in single coverage so the other receivers will need to step up and make plays when the opportunity presents itself.

When the Jets are on offense, expect them to follow a similar blueprint to the one they used in their blowout victory in Week 17. They will run the ball with Thomas Jones and Shonne Greene and hope that they can continue to pick up 1st downs in bunches.

But they’ll find things aren’t as easy this week when Mike Zimmer actually prepares his defense to take away the Jets lone offensive weapon: the running game.

Zimmer will keep his talented corners on an island against Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery and they’ll be able to lock them down. He’ll then bring extra help from the Safety position up to the line in order to render the Jets running game ineffective.

The lack of a running threat will induce Mark Sanchez into mistakes because he’s shown time and time again that he is not ready to carry this offense as a rookie.

This fact might have us seeing Brad Smith run the Wild Cat more frequently but although it caused some confusion and led to a score last Sunday, you can bet  the Bengals defenders will have things cleaned up by Saturday.

When the clock reaches 0:00,  expect Cincinnati to pull out a close 17-13 win. They’ll play exceptional defense and force Sanchez into a few turnovers which will be the deciding factor in the game.

The O/U of 34.5 is a good bet too.

Here’s our Week 17 picks.

Best Bet

1. New York Jets (-10) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have nothing to play for and have added incentive to tank this game because it will mean Pittsburgh is kept out of the post season. That being said, their offense has been in a funk the past few weeks and they’ll want to work out some issues prior to Wild Card Weekend.

Expect the Bengals starters to play for about a half, and keep it close, and then for New York to pull away late en route to a two TD win.

Next In Line

2. Baltimore Ravens (-10) vs. Oakland Raiders

The Raiders have pulled off some big upsets by the bay this season (Bengals, Eagles, etc.) but those weren’t games where everything was on the line for the other team. This is. The Ravens must win on Sunday to advance to the post season.

Look for a spirited effort from Ray Lewis and Co. and for the offense, led by Ray Rice, to dominate the Raiders in the Black Hole.

3. Tennessee Titans (-4) vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks have mailed in the season and are only playing for a higher draft selection on Sunday. The Titans on the other hand are focused on getting Chris Johnson to 2,000 yards – and the single season total yards mark – and will beat up a demoralized Seahawks squad in Week 17.

4. Philadelphia Eagles (+3) vs. Dallas Cowboys

Next In Line

Kansas City Chiefs (+13) vs. Denver Broncos

The Broncos have had an excellent season considering their expectations coming into it, but the last time they were favored by this much, the Raiders pulled off the shocking 20-19 upset two weeks ago.

They’re on the outside looking in (at the post season) and the Chiefs, with the return of WR Dwayne Bowe, are playing more competitively on offense. KC will lose, but not by 13.

Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers are riding high on a two game winning streak after knocking off the Seahawks and Saints in consecutive weeks. Unfortunately they won’t finish the season on a three game streak. The Falcons, re-energized with the return of Matt Ryan, will control this game offensively, and on defense, they’ll force Josh Freeman into a few turnovers.

Houston Texans (-7.5) vs. New England Patriots

This will be typical Patriots. Already having a home game in the Playoffs secured, the starters (Brady, Moss, Welker, etc) will play a quarter – maybe a half – before Belichick puts in the backups. The Texans still have an outside chance at a Wild Card and will romp at home on Sunday.

Money Line

Philadelphia Eagles (+140) vs. Dallas Cowboys

A lot is at stake when these two teams meet in Week 17. The Cowboys with a win will win the NFC East outright. The Eagles, thanks to the collapse of the Vikings, currently are the No. 2 seed in the NFC and with a win will lock down that first round bye in addition to the NFC East.

Offensively, look for Reid to try and re-establish the Eagles running game. The Eagles have gotten away from that in recent weeks but with the return of Westbrook, to go along with McCoy and Weaver, now’s a good time to begin balancing out the team’s play-calling.

An effective running game will also keep DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer off McNabb and open up the passing game to DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek.

Defensively, look for the Eagles to blitz Dallas to keep the offense under control. When Romo has time, he can deliver the ball to Austin and Witten and is extremely effective. When he’s pressured, he makes mistakes. Dallas also tends to get away from the running game when Romo is off so expect the Eagles to bring as much pressure as possible.

In their last game, playing a straight up defense hurt Philly as Romo was able to locate Miles Austin on a  GW 49 yard TD pass late in the game. They won’t make the same mistake again.

Andy Reid has strong record in Dallas and he’ll continue that success with a win on Sunday as the Eagles will wrap up a bye in the Playoffs.