Must Start

Seahawks, Bengals, Lions and Chargers

Tier 1

Denver Broncos vs. Arz – Look for Denver to force multiple turnovers at home.

Detroit Lions vs. Buf – The Lions will get after Orton in his 1st game starting.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Stl – The Rams still don’t have a QB.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Hou – They are an appealing option against Fitzpatrick.

Green Bay Packers vs. Min – Peppers and Co. will put up 10 FFL points.

Tier 2

New York Giants vs. Atl – Look for the Giants to get after Ryan on Sunday.

St Louis Rams vs. Phi – The Rams strong DL can overpower the Eagles ailing offensive line. That will force the Eagles into a few mistakes.

Bust

New England Patriots vs. Cin – The Bengals are built to give the Patriots problems.

Fantasy Sleeper

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jax – The risk of garbage time points is real, but the Steelers should dominate this offense.

1. San Francisco 49ers (-5) vs. GB – The Packers are talking a big game, but when push comes to shove, the 49ers massive lines – both offensive and defensive – will out muscle them to the 10 point victory.

Next in line

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) vs. NYJ – It is difficult to trust Josh Freeman, except when the Bucs are facing a team with a QB worse than he is. The revamped Bucs secondary will complement an already strong run defense and force QB Geno Smith into mistakes, en route to a win by at least a TD.

3. Houston Texans (-5.5) vs. SD – The Chargers are facing a rebuilding year, and have a lot of holes defensively. The Texans have retooled and are a Super Bowl candidate. Look for their defense to smother Rivers and Co. and for Houston to win by double digits.

4. Cincinnati Bengals (+3) vs. Chi – See money line bet analysis.

Rounding things out

Minnesota Vikings (+6) vs. Det – The Lions always seem to come up short when heavily favored over their division rival. The Vikings will keep this close and may pull off the upset.

New England Patriots (-10.5) vs. Buf – Bill Belichick is always tough on rookie QBs. That won’t change this weekend.

Washington Redskins (-4.5) vs. Phi – The betting line is likely due to respect for Chip Kelly’s offensive scheme. It won’t change the outcome on Monday. Kelly’s not blessed with the superior talent he had at Oregon and this isn’t the Pac 10. The Redskins are a better team across the board.

Money Line Analysis

Cincinnati Bengals (+125) vs. Chi – The Bengals are a Super Bowl contender loaded with young talent. The Bears have a new coach with a new system, and are dealing with some turnover defensively from a year ago. They’re still very formidable at home, but the unknowns coupled with a talented Bengals team will result in a W for Cincinnati in Week 1.

11. San Diego Chargers

The Chargers defense finished mid pack points-wise last year but came on strong over their 11 game winning streak to finish the season. They’ve suffered no key losses to the unit in 2010 – aside from dealing the overrated CB Antonio Cromartie to the Jets, so look for them to put up solid points as the Chiefs, Broncos and Raiders, who they play six times, aren’t very formidable.

12. New York Giants

The wild card is new DC Perry Fewell. The Giants have top 5 fantasy football D/ST ability but performed horribly under one-and-done DC Bill Sheridan in 2009, who managed to lead a top tier unit to just 83 total points. Injuries played their part as well. Look for Fewell, already established in the NFL as a coordinator, to get this D back on track and for the Giants to be a nice fantasy sleeper in 2010.

13. Cincinnati Bengals

This unit responded very well to DC Mike Zimmer’s and overcame key losses (DE Odom, LB Maualuga) to finish with 122 points. They have a lot of young talent and their secondary is adept at forcing turnovers. Expect them to be a low No. 1 D/ST right back.

14. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are a very well coached team and added some firepower when it signed OLB Karlos Dansby in the off season. They finished with only 93 fantasy points in 2009 but should be expected to increase that number to 120 plus in 2010 with the development of their young players and the addition of Mike Nolan to the Defensive Coordinator role.

15. New England Patriots

The Belichick defensive magic appears to have vanished but that could be a product of the old vets (Richard Seymour, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, Ty Law, etc) being gone. Stud MLB Jerod Mayo missed decent time in 2009 and the unit was often overwhelmed by quality offenses. The Pats have opted to go young via the draft and it remains to be seen whether Belichick can get this unit to consistently force turnovers and keep opponents out of the end zone week in and week out.

16. Tennessee Titans

The Titans got off to a horrible start under DC Chuck Cecil and couldn’t stop anyone through the air. Things improved over the year but they still only managed 95 fantasy football points after a stellar 2008. Some additions to the defense in 2010 should have them back between 110-130 points.

17. Indianapolis Colts

The Colts’ D was ravished by injuries to the secondary a year ago and finished with 109 points. Bill Polian addressed some of these issues in the off season and will expect DE Dwight Freeney and Co. to pressure opposing offenses into sacks and turnovers.

18. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are a strong fantasy sleeper entering this season. They went out and spent big money this off season and reeled in CB Dunta Robinson to head up its secondary. Tougher opposing schedule and injuries can be attributed to their poor 2009. Look for a bounce back this year and a nice fantasy upside.

19. Washington Redskins

DT Albert Haynesworth and his headaches aside, there’s talent and a new defensive philosophy in town with the addition of Jim Haslett as DC in Washington. Expect the coaching and scheme alone to contribute to an increase in fantasy points. LB Brian Orakpo’s an exciting young player who could reach 13-15 sacks in 2010.

20. Houston Texans

The Texans improved defensively and finished with 110 fantasy points in 2009. They’ll have to deal with the absence of LB Brian Cushing for the first four games of the season, but they’ve got enough talent on that side of the ball to be a spot fill-in fantasy defense in most leagues. KR specialist Jacoby Jones is an explosive special teams player who can be expected to score two or three times over the course of the season.

Best Bet

1. New England Patriots (-3.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens

The only way Baltimore can win this game, and cover the point spread, is by establishing the running game. But Belichick is smart enough to recognize this and will scheme to take Ray Rice and Willis McGahee away.

Joe Flacco has been horrible at times down the stretch and that inconsistency will lead to a few picks on Sunday.

The Pats won’t light up the scoreboard either, but Brady and Co. will make enough plays to get it done. Keep an eye on Randy Moss whose deep speed could prove too much for the Ravens Secondary.

The Pats have been here before and are hard to beat at home in the playoffs. Look for them to win by a TD.

Next In Line

2. Arizona Cardinals (+2) vs. Green Bay Packers

This is the most difficult game on the board to pick. Both offenses are going to move the ball through the air against each other and it will come down to which team can make the big play/stop on defense.  Our money is on Arizona.

Talented S Adrian Wilson will be all over of the field and his presence in the box will ensure Ryan Grant doesn’t get going. Their creative defensive packages will also account for the Packers receivers, something very difficult to do, and although we see Rodgers and Co. having success passing the ball, we expect Arizona, playing at home, to come up big when it counts.

This team did it last year throughout the Playoffs and look poised to make a run this year too.

3. Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) vs. New York Jets

Don’t let the 37-0 whooping mislead you; there were many reasons for that lopsided score. The bottom line is the Bengals didn’t need that game and didn’t show much in it either.

Look for Cincinnati to focus heavily on its running game (Cedric Benson) to set up the pass and for the other receivers (outside of Ochocinco), Caldwell and/or Coles, to step up and make plays in the passing game.

New York will attempt to run the ball but the Bengals will scheme to take this away. And Mark Sanchez won’t be able to beat the Bengals, and its talented CBs, through the air.

The Bengals will bounce back this week with a big 17-13 win playing in their homepark.

4. Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

A week ago, we chose the Eagles straight up and were burned. Dallas had their way with Philly although Reid shut things down once it was apparent that they were not going to win.

The more we analyze this match-up, it’s hard to envision the Eagles keeping this game to within a FG. They can’t  - don’t – run the ball, and by failing to do so, McNabb is put into precarious spots. DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer are then able to pin their ears back and go after No. 5.

The inability to go play-action also limits DeSean Jackson’s effectiveness.

On offense, Marion Barber and Felix Jones will run the ball at will on the Eagles smaller defense and when Philly tries to bring up Safety help, Romo will make them pay.

Look for the Cowboys to sweep all three games this season with a 24-17 win on Saturday Night.

A few things to consider when analyzing this game before making your pick:

* The Jets needed last week’s game badly to make the Playoffs; the Bengals didn’t.

* The Bengals, with a win, would have secured the 3rd seed and faced the Ravens for the third time this season.  They’ve won the first two and beating a team three times in one season is something very difficult to accomplish.

* The Bengals sat Cedric Benson and a few of their other key defensive players.

* The Jets showed everything in their arsenal (offensively and defensively) while the Bengals showed very little.

Now to the rematch and how we see things shaping up on Saturday.

When the Bengals are on offense, look for Palmer to feed the ball to Cedric Benson between 25 and 30 times. It is imperative that the Bengals can get a solid running game going because their pass offense has been unable to carry them over the last six weeks of the season. What’s becoming more apparent is that when the late Chris Henry was placed on IR, the threat of a deep passing game went with him.

Aside from Ochocinco, who’s now slowed by a knee injury, Coles and Caldwell have failed to step up and this has defenses shifting focus to his side of the ball. The Jets have the luxury of being able to put CB Darrelle Revis on No. 85 in single coverage so the other receivers will need to step up and make plays when the opportunity presents itself.

When the Jets are on offense, expect them to follow a similar blueprint to the one they used in their blowout victory in Week 17. They will run the ball with Thomas Jones and Shonne Greene and hope that they can continue to pick up 1st downs in bunches.

But they’ll find things aren’t as easy this week when Mike Zimmer actually prepares his defense to take away the Jets lone offensive weapon: the running game.

Zimmer will keep his talented corners on an island against Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery and they’ll be able to lock them down. He’ll then bring extra help from the Safety position up to the line in order to render the Jets running game ineffective.

The lack of a running threat will induce Mark Sanchez into mistakes because he’s shown time and time again that he is not ready to carry this offense as a rookie.

This fact might have us seeing Brad Smith run the Wild Cat more frequently but although it caused some confusion and led to a score last Sunday, you can bet  the Bengals defenders will have things cleaned up by Saturday.

When the clock reaches 0:00,  expect Cincinnati to pull out a close 17-13 win. They’ll play exceptional defense and force Sanchez into a few turnovers which will be the deciding factor in the game.

The O/U of 34.5 is a good bet too.

Here’s our Week 17 picks.

Best Bet

1. New York Jets (-10) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have nothing to play for and have added incentive to tank this game because it will mean Pittsburgh is kept out of the post season. That being said, their offense has been in a funk the past few weeks and they’ll want to work out some issues prior to Wild Card Weekend.

Expect the Bengals starters to play for about a half, and keep it close, and then for New York to pull away late en route to a two TD win.

Next In Line

2. Baltimore Ravens (-10) vs. Oakland Raiders

The Raiders have pulled off some big upsets by the bay this season (Bengals, Eagles, etc.) but those weren’t games where everything was on the line for the other team. This is. The Ravens must win on Sunday to advance to the post season.

Look for a spirited effort from Ray Lewis and Co. and for the offense, led by Ray Rice, to dominate the Raiders in the Black Hole.

3. Tennessee Titans (-4) vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks have mailed in the season and are only playing for a higher draft selection on Sunday. The Titans on the other hand are focused on getting Chris Johnson to 2,000 yards – and the single season total yards mark – and will beat up a demoralized Seahawks squad in Week 17.

4. Philadelphia Eagles (+3) vs. Dallas Cowboys

Next In Line

Kansas City Chiefs (+13) vs. Denver Broncos

The Broncos have had an excellent season considering their expectations coming into it, but the last time they were favored by this much, the Raiders pulled off the shocking 20-19 upset two weeks ago.

They’re on the outside looking in (at the post season) and the Chiefs, with the return of WR Dwayne Bowe, are playing more competitively on offense. KC will lose, but not by 13.

Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers are riding high on a two game winning streak after knocking off the Seahawks and Saints in consecutive weeks. Unfortunately they won’t finish the season on a three game streak. The Falcons, re-energized with the return of Matt Ryan, will control this game offensively, and on defense, they’ll force Josh Freeman into a few turnovers.

Houston Texans (-7.5) vs. New England Patriots

This will be typical Patriots. Already having a home game in the Playoffs secured, the starters (Brady, Moss, Welker, etc) will play a quarter – maybe a half – before Belichick puts in the backups. The Texans still have an outside chance at a Wild Card and will romp at home on Sunday.

Money Line

Philadelphia Eagles (+140) vs. Dallas Cowboys

A lot is at stake when these two teams meet in Week 17. The Cowboys with a win will win the NFC East outright. The Eagles, thanks to the collapse of the Vikings, currently are the No. 2 seed in the NFC and with a win will lock down that first round bye in addition to the NFC East.

Offensively, look for Reid to try and re-establish the Eagles running game. The Eagles have gotten away from that in recent weeks but with the return of Westbrook, to go along with McCoy and Weaver, now’s a good time to begin balancing out the team’s play-calling.

An effective running game will also keep DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer off McNabb and open up the passing game to DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek.

Defensively, look for the Eagles to blitz Dallas to keep the offense under control. When Romo has time, he can deliver the ball to Austin and Witten and is extremely effective. When he’s pressured, he makes mistakes. Dallas also tends to get away from the running game when Romo is off so expect the Eagles to bring as much pressure as possible.

In their last game, playing a straight up defense hurt Philly as Romo was able to locate Miles Austin on a  GW 49 yard TD pass late in the game. They won’t make the same mistake again.

Andy Reid has strong record in Dallas and he’ll continue that success with a win on Sunday as the Eagles will wrap up a bye in the Playoffs.

1. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings defensive woes stem more from their offenses inability to move the ball and score points. That should change this week against the struggling Bears. Look for Cutler, a turnover machine, to throw another two picks and for Allen and Co. to put him on his back. They’re the top ranked fantasy football D/ST in Week 16.

2. San Francisco 49ers vs. Detroit Lions

The 49ers play exceptional D at home and face an inept Lions offense this Sunday. While they won’t force seven turnovers as they did against Arizona two weeks ago, expect three or four.

3. Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks have put on two horrific performances, back to back, and head to chilly Green Bay on Sunday. They’ll want no part of either the cold weather or the Packers defense and you can expect less than 10 points from the unit.

4. New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Saints should cruise to a large early lead and turn the Bucs one dimensional. And once this happens, look for Sharper and Co. to pick off a few of his errant passes.

Sleepers

1. Cleveland Browns vs. Oakland Raiders

The Browns put on a stellar defensive effort in their last home game (six points vs. Steelers) and will most likely get JaMarcus Russell in this one. Expect an excellent showing with multiple sacks and turnovers from a solid fantasy sleeper in Week 16.

2. Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills

The Bills don’t generate a lot of points because their offensive line doesn’t provide protection for Fitzpatrick or open up running lanes for their RBs.  Look for DE Abraham and Co. to pressure Fitzpatrick into sacks and mistakes.

Others We Like

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Bengals have a chance to wrap up the AFC North on Sunday and will put on a sound defensive effort in the process.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins

Anyone else watch the Skins play on Monday Night? It looks like they’ve mailed in the season and this bodes well for Dallas, who’s still playing for a Wild Card. DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer should be all over Campbell on Sunday.

New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags are horrible on the road and will not like the cold weather in New England. The Pats D has put up two consecutive solid fantasy games and will make it a 3rd this week.

A Few More

New York Giants vs. Carolina Panthers

Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets

Arizona Cardinals vs. St. Louis Rams

Best Bet

1. Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) vs. Tampa Buccaneers

The Seahawks were annihilated vs. the Texans last week yet are the best bet this week. How? Because they’re a much better team at home and are welcoming the 1-12 (0-6 road) Bucs to town.  Seattle will control this game offensively and use the legs of Justin Forsett to wear down the Bucs defense late.

Rookie QB Josh Freeman has been a turnover machine the past few weeks and Seattle’s D will capitalize on a few of his mistakes here.

Next In Line

2. Kansas City Chiefs (-2) vs. Cleveland Browns

This is likely the most unwatchable game on the schedule except for those with money on the line… both teams have been horrible lately outside of Cleveland’s upset of the Steelers last Thursday. The Chiefs have suffered offensively during Dwayne Bowe’s absence but he returns on Sunday. This will help out Cassel who’ll have more options in the passing game. The Browns offense is inept as a group and Kansas City is still a difficult place for opponents to play.

3. Baltimore Ravens (-11) vs. Chicago Bears

The Bears season has been a complete wash and Cutler has struggled without the necessary talent surrounding him. They also travel poorly (1-5 on road). The Ravens are still in the thick of the playoff race and we like Baltimore to pour it on this Sunday. Look for a lot of Ray Rice offensively and for the Ravens D to get after Cutler and force him into sacks and turnovers.

4. Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5) vs. San Diego Chargers

See Money Line analysis.

Others We Like

Arizona Cardinals (-12) vs. Detroit Lions

The Cardinals on the road in 2009 have been phenomenal. They’re 5-2 and one of those losses came when Kurt Warner was out. The other came on Monday against the 49ers, who have owned them recently. They’ll get back to their winning ways with a romp in Detroit. Warner and Co. will pick apart the Lions D and Detroit is looking like they’ll be forced to go with Daunte Culpepper at QB.

New Orleans Saints (-7) vs. Dallas Cowboys

This will probably be the last game of the regular season that the Saints get revved up for and look for them to put a show Saturday Night in the Big Easy. No one to date has stopped Drew Brees and Co. at home and the Cowboys won’t be the first. Dallas is also playing on edge after hearing all the “can’t win in December talk” and will lose in by at least 10.

Denver Broncos (-14) vs. Oakland Raiders

The Broncos have laid a few eggs in recent years when hosting the Raiders as big time favorites, but we don’t see that happening again. The main reason is this year’s team has a defense. They’ll get after Charlie Frye and make his life miserable, forcing turnovers and a lot three and outs. On top of that, the offense is playing well and Orton and his skill players are clicking at the right time. Look for a rout on Sunday.

Money Line

Cincinnati Bengals (+220) vs. San Diego Chargers

This game has huge playoff ramifications as the team that wins puts itself in the driver’s seat for the No. 2 seed in the AFC.

Cincinnati will be playing this one with a heavy heart after the death of WR Chris Henry on Thursday.

The Bengals actually play a style of defense which matches up very well against San Diego. The Chargers are excellent at passing the ball but the Bengals feature one of the top rated pass defenses in the NFL. Their CB duo, Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall, is one of the best in the business. The Bengals stop the run fairly well but the Chargers don’t feature much of a ground attack, so expect most of their attention to be on Phillip Rivers.

Offensively, the Bengals have been in a slump but have a chance to get back on track here. Look for them to pound the ball with Cedric Benson as the Chargers still have issues stopping the run. They’re much better than they were earlier in the season but still vulnerable against better running attacks.

In the passing game, look for Palmer to execute a safer attack to Ochocinco, Coles and Caldwell. The Chargers are good at preventing the long ball so we expect more of an underneath passing game.

When it’s all said and done, look for the Bengals, rallying around the death of Chris Henry, to pull out a tough road win.

1. Minnesota Vikings

The Panthers passing game has never really found its groove in 2009 and the Vikings are one of the best in the business at stopping the run. Expect another dominant effort by Jared Allen and Co. when Minnesota heads down to Carolina on Sunday Night.

2. Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders

If the Raiders go back to JaMarcus Russell, this is a no brainer. He’ll be sacked numerous times and turn the ball over. If they go with Charlie Frye, the results won’t be much better. Either way, Denver’s a great fantasy football play in Week 15.

3. Baltimore Ravens vs. Chicago Bears

The Bears have traveled poorly all season and face a hungry Ravens D in Baltimore on Sunday. The Ravens still have something to play for. Expect Ray Lewis and Co. to come out fired up and keep the Bears to under 10 points. Cutler will add to his league leading INT total.

4. New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Jets D has rediscovered its mojo the past three games and seem poised for another strong showing in the Meadowlands on Sunday. Check back to see if  Matt Ryan and Michael Turner will play, but regardless, expect New York to keep Atlanta to under 13 points on the day.

Sleepers

1. Houston Texans vs. St. Louis Rams

The Rams were relegated to their 3rd string QB who promptly threw 5 picks vs. the Titans on Sunday. With no one else to worry about aside from Steven Jackson, expect Houston to put on another top effort. They’re a great fantasy sleeper in Week 15.

2. Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Seahawks, good at home, terrible on the road, will feast on a struggling Bucs offense in Week 15. Look for Seattle, playing with the 12th man, to force QB Josh Freeman into multiple turnovers and a few sacks.

Others We Like

Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are in an offensive funk right now and just scored six points against Cleveland. Green Bay has righted its ship and will have another strong performance in Week 15.

New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys

The Saints should be able to take an early lead and force the Cowboys to become one dimensional. Once that occurs, look for New Orleans to sack Romo and force him into turnovers.

San Diego Chargers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals offense has failed to find its rhythm the past few weeks and relied more on its defense in their victories than its offense. And heading out west to face a resurgent Chargers squad, expect another sup bar performance against Merriman and Co.

A Few More

Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers

Arizona Cardinals vs. Detroit Lions

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

1. Indianapolis Colts (-7) vs. Denver Broncos

With a win on Sunday, the Colts will wrap up home field advantage in the AFC. The Broncos, who are still fighting for a Wild Card, have beaten the Giants and Chiefs in consecutive weeks but will find that the Colts are a different beast.

Look for Peyton Manning to have success through the air and force Denver into a shootout, which is not their style of play. Defensively, Freeney and Co. will shut down Kyle Orton en route to an easy win in Week 14.

Next In Line

2. Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings

Although Minnesota is a tough place to play, it’s tough to bet against the Bengals in a big game situation this year. They’ve won every single one they’ve played in. And still vying for the No. 2 seed in the conference, expect Cincinnati to pull out a close victory on the road behind the legs of Cedric Benson and arm of Carson Palmer. The loss of MLB EJ Henderson to the Vikings’ defense will be difficult to overcome.

3. New England Patriots (-13.5) vs. Carolina Panthers

The Patriots are finally back to a place they can win: home. They’re 6-0 in New England and just 1-5 on the road. The Panthers will likely have to go with Matt Moore at QB and even the beleaguered Patriots defense can handle this assignment. Offensively, look for Brady and Co. to put between 25 to 30 on the board and wear the Panthers down late.

4. Miami Dolphins (+3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

See Money Line Analysis

Others We Like

Dallas Cowboys (-3) vs. San Diego Chargers

The Chargers are on a roll right now but have mostly feasted off a soft schedule during their seven game winning streak. And while the Cowboys certainly have issues of their own – can’t win in December, this is a must-win game for them. Their ability to run the ball will end up being the deciding factor in the game.

Philadelphia Eagles (+1) vs. New York Giants

The Giants potentially saved their season with their win over Dallas in Week 13. And while they did a lot of good things in that game, they’ve still got a number of issues rushing the passer and getting off the field on 3rd down. Andy Reid always has his teams prepared against New York and will attack the Giants porous pass defense with the Eagles talented young pass catchers (DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek).

Also, the +1 point spread suggests that the odds makers think Philly will win; home teams are usually alloted a 3 point spread if the book makers think the game is even.

Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers hopes for the post season will come to an end on Monday Night when the Cards head out to San Francisco. Kurt Warner is playing extremely well and Fitzgerald and Boldin will be too much for the Niners secondary. Defensively, the Cards will take Frank Gore out of the game and force Alex Smith to beat them.

Money Line

Miami Dolphins (+120) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags are the most unimpressive 7-5 team in the NFL.  Outside of Maurice Jones-Drew and the running game, they don’t do anything particularly well; the passing game is inconsistent and the defense is soft against both the run and pass.

The Dolphins are by no means a powerhouse, but they’ve won three of their last four (including a 22-21 win over the Patriots on Sunday) to move to .500. Chad Henne is slowly getting better and the improvement to the offensive side of the ball reflects his growth as a QB.

Offensively, Miami will focus on the running game with Ricky Williams to set-up the pass. Look for Henne to then execute a safe passing attack designed to keep the clock/chains moving and wear Jacksonville down. Miami will score at least 21.

Defensively, Miami will focus its efforts on stopping the run, which it’s quite good at. They’ll force David Garrard to beat them and he’ll struggle against an improving secondary.

When clock hits 0:00, Miami will win 21-17 to move even with the Jags at 7-6.