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Houston Texans (-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals – Although the Texans have played their worst ball of the season lately, they’re catching a Bengals team that failed to beat one playoff team the entire season.

They also showed distinct holes against the run in their finale as Ray Rice torched them for two long TDs.

Against Arian Foster and Ben Tate, that’s a weakness that’s sure to be exploited. This should be a competitive game throughout, but look for Houston to win a lower scoring game by 7 on the back of a strong defensive effort and the legs of their stout running game.

Earlier in the week the FG point spread looked good in Cincinnati’s favor. But now, whether betting in a Vegas sportsbook or the best online sportsbook, the smart money is on Houston.

NFC

Detroit Lions (+10.5) vs. New Orleans Saints – The Saints will win this game. They’ve won most in their home park going away. But the Lions will be much healthier this go around than when the teams faced off a month ago.

In that contest they were without DT Ndamukong Suh plus S Louis Delmas, which hurt against the pass. And that is exactly where Brees and Co. attacked that night. The yards and points will be high once again, as both offenses are prolific, but the outcome will be closer than the 10.5 betting line suggests.

1. Jahvid Best – Detroit Lions

Best becomes an instant fantasy sleeper and will receive 15+ carries per game from the get go due to an injury to starter RB Kevin Smith. When the Lions grabbed him in the 1st round of the 2010 NFL Draft, head coach Jim Schwartz, the former DC of the Titans, said Best’s speed reminded him of RB Chris Johnson. They can only hope so.

In 2010, he’ll be playing in what will be an improved Detroit offense. The passing game should (QB Matt Stafford, WR Calvin Johnson, TE Tony Scheffler) be able to take pressure off the running game and Best, finding less men in the box, will break a few longs ones throughout the course of the season.

Expect him to be a factor on both the ground and as a receiver out of the backfield.

2. Ben Tate – Houston Texans

Just when it appeared that the Texans had finally found itself a starting RB, Steve Slaton regressed badly in year two and was relegated to a 3rd down specialist by season’s end. He developed a fumbling problem which incensed HC Gary Kubiak to the point where the organization went out and selected Tate with the 58th pick in this year’s NFL Draft.

But Tate fits the ideal back the Texans have wanted for years: big (5’11″ 220lbs), strong and fast. He was clocked at 4.43 in the 40.

With QB Matt Schaub, TE Owen Daniels and WR Andre Johnson a threat to light up secondaries, expect Tate to find a lot of room to run in year one.

Aside from the goal line, he’ll begin by sharing the carries with Slaton, but look for him to assert himself as the starter after Week 4.

3. RB Michael Bush – Oakland Raiders

Bush was a fantasy football sleeper entering the 2009 campaign but was hampered by a horrific JaMarcus Russell’ led offense which brought everyone’s numbers down. That problem is now gone. Russell has been cut and Jason Campbell, who was acquired from the Redskins, will provide more stability to an offense which was derailed by numerous turnovers a year ago.

Bush is a very big man with both the speed and moves to be an every down back.

RB Darren McFadden’s been given the nod to this point due to his lofty draft status in 2008, but that novelty has just about worn off.

Expect Michael Bush to split carries in the beginning but takeover as the No. 1 RB by Week 6 of the season.