San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) vs. New Orleans Saints – The Saints are getting all of the love in the media as the team to beat and have been made a 3.5 favorite in San Francisco.
Before everyone begins booking hotel rooms in Indianapolis, they may want to step back and analyze the facts a bit more closely.
New Orleans is 0-4 in road playoff games and their offensive production dropped dramatically when on the road AND on grass in 2011.
They even lost at Tampa Bay.
When the Saints have the ball, look for them to attack with the pass to set up the run. If there’s one area to attack the 49ers defense, it’s the secondary.
The problem with this is San Francisco will press the receivers and disrupt the timing of the routes, which is how the Saints’ passing game usually works to perfection.
The Niners front will pressure Brees into getting rid of the ball sooner than he’d like and rely on dump-offs and check downs for most of the afternoon.
The Saints running game will not be much of a factor on Saturday.
When the Niners have the ball, they’ll need to employ the quick passing game to offset the blitz, which is exactly how Gregg Williams’ defense will attack Alex Smith. But Jim Harbaugh is creative enough to draw up plays to exploit mismatches against the Saints average secondary and will do so.
This will force New Orleans to keep a Safety deep which will help out the running game
The X factor will once again be K David Akers. He’s had an amazing year and will play a prominent role as the 49ers struggle to score in the red zone.
Look for a very competitive game in which the 49ers not only cover the point spread, but pull out the 23-20 win.
AFC
New England Patriots (-13.5) vs. Denver Broncos – The Patriots caught a bit of a break when the Broncos upset the Steelers last Sunday. While John Fox is a heck of a coach, the Broncos D doesn’t have the personnel or scheme to disrupt Brady the way that Pittsburgh could have.
When the teams met in December, New England routed Denver 41-23.
There’s no reason to assume things will be different this time.
When New England has the ball, expect Brady to once again run the offense through its TE’s (Gronkowski and Hernandez). This will force Denver to pay attention to the middle of the field which will open up opportunities for Welker and Co.
And with the Safeties and LB’ers focusing on the TE’s the Pats will be able to successfully mix in the run.
When the Broncos have the ball, they’ll once again try and pound the rock. Although the Pats secondary is porous, Tebow’s not going to consistently beat them through the air like they did Pittsburgh.
And Denver knows this.
Their best opportunity is to eat away at the clock and keep Tom Brady sitting on the sidelines.
While it sounds great in theory, it won’t happen on Saturday night.
Look for New England to roll at home 41-17.
