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Houston Texans (+7.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens – This is a rematch from earlier in the year when the Ravens handled the Texans 29-14.
And while that could happen again, we don’t think it will. There have been far too many times where OC Cam Cameron abandons Ray Rice and the running game and that’s not going to cut it this week.
When the Texans have the ball, look for them to continue to run first and pass second.
The Ravens are pretty solid vs. the run but RB Arian Foster will be a factor this time around. While QB Matt Schaub is absent, the return of a healthy WR Andre Johnson will force Baltimore to keep a Safety deep, which will aid the rushing attack and open up opportunities for Tyler Yates.
When the Ravens have the ball, they’ll need to get Ray Rice involved early and often. If they deviate from this plan, it could lead to trouble against a very solid Texans D.
Joe Flacco is not the kind of QB to carry the team and everything feeds off of the running game.
So expect Baltimore to use the run to set up the pass / play action which will lead to success in the 2nd half.
When it’s all said and done, look for a close game and a 23-17 final, which will cover the 7.5 point spread.
NFC
New York Giants (+7.5) vs. Green Bay Packers – A lot of things have changed since the 38-35 Packers win over the Giants in December. For one thing, both teams are healthy.
New York is as healthy as they’ve been all year and the Packers have gotten back some key players along the offensive line and at LB’er.
When New York has the ball, look for them to mix in the short passing game with the run to set the tempo. The Packers D yields a lot of yards and doesn’t consistently get after the QB.
What they do well however is intercept the ball, which is why a short to mid range game plan will minimize the Packers opportunities for creating turnovers.
And when the Packers bring their Safeties up closer to the line to stop the run, look for Eli Manning to take advantage of his outside threats and strike down the field.
When the Packers have the ball, expect a game plan that’s designed to get the ball out of Aaron Rodgers hands quickly.
And no one does this better than Rodgers.
The running game shouldn’t be a factor because the Giants front is playing exceptional right now, so Green Bay will use the short pass in lieu of the run.
Rodgers will be able to find success on crossing patterns and throwing over the middle to his talented receiving corps. And if the Giants front four fails to pressure him, his mobility will allow him to strike down the field, which is exactly what worries New York the most.
The Packers are 15-1 for a reason, and well rested coming into this game. The edge usually goes to the home team coming off the bye.
But the Giants enter this as hot as anyone in the league and if they can weather the Packers in the 1st half and keep things close, then except a 30-27 Giants upset.
