Indianapolis Colts: 2-3
GM Bill Polian does s good a job as any at retooling his roster and plugging in young talent to go with the proven commodities (QB Peyton Manning, WR Reggie Wayne, DE Dwight Freeney, etc.). The Colts enter 2010 coming off a disappointing loss in the Super Bowl, but as you look around the rest of the division, you realize it’s still the Colts and everyone else. The offense will actually be stronger this season (a healthy WR Anthony Gonzalez and better O-Line) and talent was added to the defense via the NFL Draft and Free Agency. As has been the case for over 90% of the last decade, this is the best bet on the board.
Tennessee Titans: 7-2
After starting the 2009 season 0-6, the Titans, at the insistence of owner Bud Adams, re-inserted QB Vince Young into the starting lineup and the team went 8-2 to close out the season. However, that number is a bit misleading. While some of the wins were impressive (last second victory over Arizona), they were blown out by the San Diego Chargers in the one game which truly mattered. That would’ve put them back in the Wild Card hunt. This year, it’s QB Vince Young’s team from the get go, but the offense will still run through superstar RB Chris Johnson. Defensively, things should be better than a year ago, but this unit is still a ways away from being a dominant as the 2008 outfit.
Houston Texans: 7-2
The Texans can score with the best of them, it’s the defense that keeps them from seriously competing for a division crown. The Texans drafted RB Ben Tate in the 2nd round to provide a ground threat to go with the passing game. Defensively, the team will be without controversial rookie of the year LB Brian Cushing for the first four games of the season, and CB Dunta Robinson flew the coop to the Atlanta Falcons in the free agency. While the likely Wild Card teams will come out of the AFC North and East this year, expect the Texans to remain in that conversation throughout.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 10-1
Unfortunately for Jacksonville, the promising team of 2007 is a distant memory. Outside of RB Maurice Jones-Drew and perhaps WR Mike Sims-Walker if he continues to develop, there’s question marks along the offensive line and at the receiving corps, and David Garrard is a middle of the pack QB in the NFL. Defensively, the team purged its front seven, including longtime DT John Henderson, and their replacements aren’t good enough to step in and make this unit a force. The decision to draft for need at the 10th pick (DT Tyson Alualu) was the worst pick in the Draft. Expect relocation talk to be hotly discussed throughout the year.
Pro Football 101 Betting Strategy:
Bet the Colts and don’t look back. A 66% return is excellent considering they’ve won the division 6 out of the past 7 years and appear stronger on paper this year than last. In fact, the only time they didn’t win the division (2008) was when Peyton Manning was coming off knee surgery and a few of the offensive lineman missed significant time. The Titans and Texans will fight it out for 2nd and the Jags will round out the rear.
