The news regarding Dwight Freeney’s ankle injury got a whole lot worse on Sunday and there’s a real chance he will be unable to play in the Super Bowl.
What was initially described as a minor ankle injury is really a torn ligament, and the pass rushing specialist’s availability, or if he plays, effectiveness, is in doubt.
How does this affect your betting strategy?
If Freeney is unable to go or limited, the Colts will have very few answers to stopping the Saints passing attack.
It used to be that when S Bob Sanders went down, the run defense disappeared. Well, Jim Caldwell and Co. have shored up that part of the defense and the Colts were able to absorb the star studded, but often injured Safety’s loss and play respectable run defense.
But losing Freeney would be particularly big because the Saints are a pass happy team. The Colts would be unable to generate a consistent pass rush with their front four and Drew Brees is as good as anyone when he has time to deliver the ball.
He’ll carve up the Colts secondary and trade score for score with Peyton Manning.
In fact, the loss of No. 93 would actually tip the scales in the Saints favor.
And the reason is we expect Gregg Williams defense to generate more of a pass rush on Peyton than Caldwell’s will get on Brees.
We’ll have our full analysis later in the week, but at this point, with the new news on Freeney, we’re leaning towards taking the Saints (+6), the Saints on the money line (+170), and the over (56.5).
Pro Football 101 » Super Bowl XLIV Breakdown: Colts vs. Saints
February 4th, 2010 at 20:53
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[...] Super Bowl XLIV is in the books, provided DE Dwight Freeney doesn’t play, look for the Saints, a 6 point underdog, to pull out [...]