The New York Jets come into this game having won seven of their last eight, two of which were playoff victories on the road.
Last week, facing steep odds (7.5), they traveled cross country and wore down the heavily favored San Diego Chargers late with a physical running game and swarming defense.
The Indianapolis Colts road to this point has been far easier. After winning their initial 14 games, they created controversy by resting their starters and bypassing a chance at perfection in their Week 16 game against these very same Jets.
But they bounced back last week and smothered the Baltimore Ravens 20-3 in the Divisional Round.
The wonderful irony of this match-up is the Jets wouldn’t be in this situation had the Colts not given up in their Week 16 game.
Instead, they now find themselves facing this year’s Cinderella team which happens to feature the best running game and defense left in the Playoffs.
Onto the matchup:
When the Jets are on offense, not much is going to change from last week’s approach against the Chargers. They’re going to run the ball 65-70% of the time and try and keep Sanchez in manageable (3rd down) passing situations.
The Colts possess a much fiercer pass rush than the Chargers and New York doesn’t want to get into a situation where Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis can pin their ears back and come after Sanchez.
So look for rookie RB Shonn Grenne, the new star in town, to see a lot of action, and for Thomas Jones to be primarily used in short yardage situations and near the goal line.
The Jets should have success against the smaller Colts defense and once they do, look for Sanchez to locate Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery and Dustin Keller on quick passes.
In the course of the game, they’ll also take at least two shots down the field and provided they’re having success on the ground, could land one for a long TD.
QB/KR Brad Smith will also get between 3-5 direct snaps and run the Wild Cat. Indianapolis had tremendous issues stopping it vs. the Dolphins in Week 2 and could have similar problems on Sunday.
When the Colts have the ball, their offense, as usual, will run through Peyton Manning.
The Jets feature the league’s No. 8 run defense and the Colts were dead last in that department in 2009.
But the Jets are also No. 1 against the pass, so therein lies the dilemma.
For the Colts to attack this defense, they’re going to need to locate players other than Reggie Wayne. CB Darrelle Revis will be on Wayne’s side of the field and limit his effectiveness.
This means a lot of balls will be going in the direction of Dallas Clark, Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. In order to beat the heavy pressure, expect a lot of slants and crossing routes.
One thing New York did last week was keep everything in front of their secondary. While this prevented the home run ball, it left huge holes open over the middle (of the field) which the Chargers exploited all afternoon.
The Colts will do the same.
And once the passing game gets going, they’ll then mix in Joseph Addai and Donald Brown in order to keep the defense honest.
Look for the draw play to be used heavily. When facing an attacking defense, if the RB can get past the first wave of players, they could find themselves running for a while.
The run will also make the play-action a little more effective, which Peyton is the master at.
We expect at least two ror three shots down the field to Garcon off of it.
When this one is in the record books, look for the Colts to advance to the Super Bowl with a 17-13 win.
While it’s very hard to pick against the Jets with the way they are playing, and this could go either way, the only reason they were able to steal last week’s game is because San Diego missed a few FGs and failed to put New York away early on when they had the chance.
Expecting that to happen two weeks in a row is too tall an order for us.
Pro Football 101 » NFL Picks - Conference Championship Weekend
January 22nd, 2010 at 12:55
Return to top
[...] the reason for that is the Jets possess the most aggressive defense in the Playoffs and Peyton Manning struggles when he has pressure in his face. He gets happy feet [...]
Pro Football 101 » Early Thoughts on the Betting Line for Super Bowl XLIV
January 26th, 2010 at 15:30
Return to top
[...] Indy on the hand is well versed playing anywhere. The grass doesn’t seem to affect their team speed and Peyton is Peyton whether at home or on the road. [...]