Best Bet
1. New York Giants (+3) vs. New Orleans Saints
See Money Line Analysis
Next In Line:
2. Baltimore Ravens (+3) vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Ravens are coming off two tough defeats and have really gotten away from what they do best: running the ball. They’ll be forced to pass again this week, because Minnesota is so good against the run, but look for more short, safe passes, which will help them sustain drives. This will keep their defense fresh as they’re not forced to stay on the field for long periods of time. The Vikings are riding high at 5-0 but this will be a physical game against a team that needs it more. Look for Baltimore to make Adrian Peterson a non factor and pressure Favre into miscues.
3. New York Jets ( -10) vs. Buffalo Bills
While the Bills have always played the Jets tough in the Meadowlands, we just don’t see it happening this week. Buffalo is coming off a horrific loss to the Browns, is down five starters on defense, and Trent Edwards has lost all confidence playing playing behind their anemic offensive line. The Jets on the other hand are angry after two losses and will take out their frustration on their rivals.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (-14) vs. Cleveland Browns
The Steelers have won two straight and could have all-world S Troy Polamalu back for this one. The Browns are coming off their first win of the season but have scored a total of 15 points in three road games thus far. Look for Pittsburgh to pound away with the running game (Mendenhall, Parker) and play ferocious defense on Sunday. This could be one of those 30-3 or 30-7 type games.
Others We Like
Houston Texans (+4.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are coming off an ultra impressive road win in Baltimore and are riding high on a four-game winning streak. The Texans are an inch away (4th down stop on goal line at Arizona) from potentially being a 3-2 team. While we still like the Bengals to win, this has all the makings of a letdown, and that’s why we think Houston keeps it to within a FG.
Green Bay Packers (-13.5) vs. Detroit Lions
The Packers come into this game well rested after the bye. The Lions might have QB Matt Stafford back, but it appears that superstar receiver Calvin Johnson will not be able to go. Regardless, expect the Packers to come out firing on offense and for its defense to stifle the Lions.
San Diego Chargers (-4.5) vs. Denver Broncos
The Broncos are feeling really good about themselves after recent wins over the Dallas Cowboys and New England Patriots. The Chargers are desperate after the beating they received at the hands of the Steelers and looking to avoid falling three and a half games back (in the AFC West). History teaches us to go with the desperate team and look for the Chargers to win by at least a TD on Monday Night.
Money Line
New York Giants (+160) vs. New Orleans Saints
This is a game the Giants have had on their radar for some time now. The last three were just tune ups for the showdown against the undefeated Saints. New Orleans, while much improved, is a finesse team that doesn’t like to get hit in the mouth. The Giants on the other hand are quite possibly the most physical team in the league and will get after Brees and Co. on Sunday.
Offensively, look for the Giants to establish their running game (Jacobs, Bradshaw) early and set the tone. Once the running game gets going and Eli begins to find success in the air, on quick strikes to Steve Smith, Mario Manningham and Kevin Boss, look for a few play action passes down the field and for Manningham, or Hakeem Nicks, to score on at least one bomb. One player to keep an eye on is S Darren Sharper; he’s terrorized Manning in his career.
Defensively, the Giants front will take RB Pierre Thomas out of the game. After being lit up by the Cowboys on the ground in Week Two, New York’s figured out its run defense and will prove stout on Sunday. And when Brees drops back to pass, Tuck, Kiwanuka and Osi will be in his face all afternoon. Brees isn’t nearly as efficient when he’s constantly being pressured and this will lead to a few mistakes.
Everyone keeps saying that New York has yet to play anyone. Don’t let that fool you; the Giants are battle tested and the most physical team in the league. They’ll wear out the Saints and win this one 28-17 in Eli’s homecoming to the Superdome.
2009 Record Against The Point Spread
Overall - 68%
Best Bets 2-3
Next In Line 13-2
Others We Like 7-8
Money Line 5-0
