For Week Four, we like a big week out of the favorites.
Best Bets
1. Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
Under normal circumstances, this could definitely be a trap game. However, the Browns are so bad and have so much internal bickering, that we just don’t see that happening. Look for the Bengals to ride RB Cedric Benson in this one and for their defense, which has come up big against the Packers and Steelers, to stifle the lowly Browns offense. This is our best bet of the week.
Next In Line
2. New York Giants (-8.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Giants are finally getting healthy and should have some of their key players back this week. The Chiefs on the other hand have been dreadful thus far. Expect another dominating defensive effort by New York and for their offense to pound the rock with Jacobs and Bradshaw all afternoon. This should be a double digit rout.
3. San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) vs. St. Louis Rams
The Niners are coming off a terrible loss at the hands of Favre’s Vikings. They are 12 seconds away from being 3-0. The Rams are still a long way away from winning their first game and have now been bitten by the injury bug. LT Jason Smith is out with a knee injury and QB Marc Bulger is nursing a hurt shoulder. Look for San Francisco to dominate defensively on Sunday and for its offense to do enough to win by at least 10 points.
4. Miami Dolphins (+2.5) vs. Buffalo Bills
See Money Line Analysis
Others We Like
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) vs. Denver Broncos
The Broncos 3-0 start is an aberration. It’s the result of one miracle play and facing inferior competition. The Cowboys, who have plenty of weaknesses themselves, will control both lines of scrimmage and win by seven.
Houston Texans (-9) vs. Oakland Raiders
The Texans have put a lot of points on the board this season. Unfortunately, they’ve allowed more than they scored in two of their games. But this week comes the Raiders, a team whose offense is as defunct as we’ve seen in sometime. Look for the Texans to reach .500 on Sunday with a two TD win over the lowly Raiders.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) vs. San Diego Chargers
The Chargers tend to perform poorly against the more physical teams in the league. Their lack of a running game as well as inability to stop the run doesn’t bode well in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are also very mad after two last second losses and will rebound with a one TD victory on Sunday Night.
Money Line
Miami Dolphins (+110) vs. Buffalo Bills
Chad Henne takes over as the starting QB in this one. This is the only reason that the Dolphins are underdogs at home on Sunday. But we still think they’re a great bet.
Offensively, we like the Dolphins to pound the ball with RB Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams and to utilize the Wild Cat formation between 25-30% of the time. Their success on the ground will take some pressure off Henne and open up opportunities on the play action pass. Look for TE Fasano to be targeted heavily and for WR Bess and Ginn Jr to be involved as well. The Bills will be without both starting S Donte Whitner and CB Leodis McKelvin in this one.
Defensively, look for the Dolphins front seven to create havoc against the Bills depleted offensive line. The Fins are strong against the run and will keep Jackson and Lynch in check all afternoon. And when Edwards does drop back to pass, Miami’s D Line will sack him a handful of times and pick off a ball or two.
Miami will finally join the win column in 2009 with a 20-14 win.
2009 Results vs. the Point Spread
Best Bets 1-2 – 33%
Next In Line 8-1 – 89%
Others We Like 4-5 – 44%
Money Line 3-0 – 100%
Overall – 67%
