When the 9-6-1 Philadelphia Eagles head into Minnesota to take on the 10-6 Vikings, it’ll wrap up a full weekend of Wild Card football.
Both teams took different routes to get here: Minnesota won a war of attrition in the NFC North and was really the last man standing, while Philly, after a horrible blowout to Baltimore and tie to the Bengals, rallied to win four if its final five games and earn its way into the playoffs. And in the process, bury its hated rivals, the Dallas Cowboys, 44-6 on the final Sunday of the NFL regular season.
This game actually is one of the more intriguing ones of the weekend and offers quite a few questions: can Reid and Philly keep that momentum gained from last week’s thrashing of the Cowboys in this one; will Childress’ knowledge of the Eagles’ system (from his time as offensive coordinator) be an advantage; will Reid stick with the running game, etc?
Here’s how we see this game playing out.
When Philly has the ball, they need to commit to the running game. As seen innumerable times this season, when the ball is placed into McNabb’s hands, and the pass to run ratio is 60 to 40 or greater, Philly doesn’t win. They don’t have the receivers to play this style of game. And Brian Westbrook is one of the premier running backs (all around threats) in the NFL, so it’s not wise to limit his touches.
The only problem this Sunday is with the expected return of DT Pat Williams, the Vikings are a formidable defense to run against. They get an excellent push against offensive lines and limit the cut back running lanes. So don’t expect Westbrook to do too much on the ground but Philly can not forget about this.
When it comes time to pass, it’ll be wise to use Westbrook a lot out of the backfield: on screens and lining him up as a receiver. He presents mismatches for opposing LBs and safeties and has the hands of a receiver. The Vikings will probably match CB Antoine Winfield against the rookie, DeSean Jackson, so look for Jackson to be kept in check. Philly will need the quick passing game – slants and crossing patterns – to enjoy success against this defense.
When Minnesota has the ball, look for them to run, run and run. If there’s one area of weakness on this Eagles’ defense, it’s stopping the run. And the Vikings feature the most explosive player in the game at that position: Adrian Peterson. After amassing over 1,700 yards on the ground this season, his biggest issue of late has been holding onto the ball; he’s developed a little Tiki-itus (fumbles) and this has really hurt his team the past two weeks, but he can break one at any moment. They also have RB Chester Taylor, who’s a solid runner in his own right.
When they look to pass, look for a lot of short passes because we expect the Eagles to bring a lot of pressure, so getting the ball out early is crucial. And this should keep TE Visanthe Schiancoe, Jackson’s new favorite target, busy all afternoon. Schiancoe had seven catches for 136 yards and two TDs vs. the Falcons two weeks ago and has really developed a rapport with the young QB.
And this will be the best way to attack Philly because their outside CBs are playing extremely well right now. But the flip side of Philly’s aggressive defensive style, is that there are opportunities to go up top off the play action pass, and that’s where WR Bernard Berrian comes into play. When these opportunities present themselves, the Vikings will need to execute.
So as we put an end to Wild Card weekend, look for Minnesota to rally around their home crowd and pull out the closest of victories: 20 – 17 or 24 – 20. A big stat to remember is that Minnesota, while not an overly impressive team, is 6-2 at home, while Philly, who needed a furious rally to even be here, was only 3-4-1 on the road.
Now, if Jackson commits a few stupid turnovers and Philly’s defense is relentless, then we can easily see the Eagles advancing, but we think he’ll be a little smarter with the ball on Sunday. And we’re not convinced that McNabb will be able to carry this offense when the running game isn’t there, just like he wasn’t able to do in Washington two weeks ago.
So look for the Vikings to advance to the second round and play the Panthers down in Carolina, while Philadelphia, who made a heck of run to even be here, will fall short of its overall goals for the season and have numerous off-season personnel questions to deal with, starting with Reid and McNabb, and working its way down to Dawkins and a few other key veteran players.
