Best Bet:
1. CAROLINA (-9.5) vs. Kansas City. The Chiefs’ victory last week was an aberration, vs. a hated division rival, at the friendly confines of Arrowhead. That all changes this week. Now they’re in Carolina, vs. a very balanced Panthers’ team, and against a team looking to take full advantage of the weak parts of its schedule. I think the Panthers get up early with the pass and then use their two headed backfield to wear down this team. Defensively, the Panthers should make Tyler Thigpen’s, or Damon Huard’s, or Brady Croyle’s – actually, it doesn’t matter – life miserable. Fox will take away LJ and the running game and the Panthers will cruise to a victory.
Next in Line:
2. SEATTLE (+7) vs. NY Giants. The Seahawks will lose this game, but it will not be by much. Had this been any week other than the week after the bye, I should think otherwise, but the Giants are 4-15 since the inception of the bye week and for whatever reason, they can’t seem to get it going until the week after. Seattle’s also getting healthier at the receiver position with Deion Branch set to return, and the Giants are without Plaxico Burress.
3. TENNESSEE (-3) vs. Baltimore. Joe Flacco impressed me last Monday with his poise playing in Pittsburgh, but this week comes a much more daunting test: the Titans’ D. They punish you and we see Flacco in line for a beating. Playing without McGahee, the Titans, who were already difficult to run against, can focus on the pass, and this should lead to a few turnovers and possibly a score. Offensively, playing with a lead, we see a heavy dose of White and Johnson to wear down this defense and secure the victory… by more than 3.
Money Line:
1. TAMPA BAY (+150) vs. Denver. The Bucs are coming off a physical victory over GB while the Broncos are coming home after an embarrassing loss at the hands of Kansas City. Usually Denver provides the Broncos with a substantial advantage playing in the thin air, but Tampa has shown itself to be a very resilient team and has won two killer contests in the past two weeks. In a game where we see its offense being able to score vs. a porous Broncos’ D, we see the Bucs’ solid D rising up to make just enough plays to secure a close victory and move to 4-1.
Season vs. spread: 3-0
